Exchange Market Pressure and Monetary Policy: Asia and Latin America in the 1990s

Exchange market pressure (EMP), the sum of exchange rate depreciation and reserve outflows (scaled by base money), summarizes the flow excess supply of money in a managed exchange rate regime. This paper examines Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Indonesia, Korea, and Thailand, and finds that monetary policy affects EMP as generally expected: contractionary monetary policy helps to reduce EMP. The monetary policy stance is best measured by domestic credit growth (since interest rates contain both policy- and market-determined elements). In response to higher EMP, monetary authorities boosted domestic credit growth both in Mexico (confirming previous research) and in the Asian countries. Copyright 2001, International Monetary Fund

Pick Your Poison: The Exchange Rate Regime and Capital Account Volatility in Emerging Markets

The authors characterize a country’s exchange rate regime by how its central bank channels a capital account shock across three variables: exchange depreciation, interest rates, and international reserve flows. Structural vector autoregression estimates for Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey reveal such responses, both contemporaneously and over time. Capital account shocks are further shown to affect output growth and inflation. The nature and magnitude of these effects may depend on the exchange rate regime.exchange rate regime, capital account, structural vector autoregression

The Perils of Tax Smoothing: Sustainable Fiscal Policy with Random Shocks to Permanent Output

If permanent output is uncertain, tax smoothing can be perilous: both debt levels and tax rates are difficult to stabilize and may drift upwards. One practical remedy would be to target the debt. However, our simulations confirm that such a policy would require undesirably volatile fiscal adjustments and may inhibit countercyclical borrowing. An alternative would be to link the primary surplus not only to the debt ratio (like tax smoothing) but also to its volatility, thus preempting further adjustments while gradually reducing the debt.tax smoothing, sustainability, forecast error

Fiscal Rules for Commodity Exporters:Prudence and Procyclicality

This paper compares welfare levels under alternative fiscal rules for small open, commodity exporter, economies whose fiscal income varies with the world commodity price (in a dynamic, stochastic, and general equilibrium setting). Between the extremes of a procyclical balanced budget policy and an acyclical spending rule, there is a continuum of rules. Thus, the best degree of spending stabilization is found. The acylical rule benefits households that do not enjoy access to capital markets by providing a financial cushion that they themselves cannot provide, boosting their mean consumption. However, households that enjoy full access to capital markets suffer under this rule, since the government reduces their role in smoothing consumption and accumulating assets.Fiscal rules, welfare, small open economy, rule-of-thumb consumers

Northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) population ecology on reclaimed mined lands

The northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) has experienced range-wide population declines for the past half century. The primary cause has been large-scale habitat loss and fragmentation. Through auspices of the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act of 1977 (SMCRA), large tracts of early successional vegetation have been created throughout much of the bobwhite’s range that may be managed to increase usable space. Peabody WMA is a reclaimed coal mine in Western Kentucky where bobwhite have been present in the past. To better understand the dynamics of this population and how habitat on Peabody WMA influences these dynamics, my two objectives were to (1) document survival, cause-specific mortality, and assess multi-scale habitat effects on survival of bobwhite, and (2) estimate nest survival, reproductive efforts, and gauge the effects of habitat composition on these parameters across multiple scales. In relation to bobwhite survival, there was not evidence of multi-scale habitat influence (Part II). Survival increased as the amount of forest vegetation increased within a home range. This was likely related to the availability of woody escape cover associated with forest vegetation on our study site. Pooled seasonal survival rates differed between Ken (S = 0.316, SE = 0.027) and Sinclair (S = 0.141, SE = 0.022) sites. This may have been attributed to differences in habitat suitability or predator abundance. Nest survival rate was low relative to other research (S = 0.317, SE = 0.081; Part III). Nest age was the most influential factor relative to nest survival on our study site and had a positive relationship. Evidence of micro-habitat effects on nest survival existed, though these effects were minimal. Nest survival increased as distance to bare ground increased. This is likely related to the importance of nest concealment on our study site. Our results show that reclaimed mined lands can provide usable space to support bobwhite populations. Management efforts should focus on increasing woody cover within reclaimed vegetation blocks to increase bobwhite survival while increasing the amount of native warm-season grasses for nesting vegetation and litter cover to support reproductive efforts

Adaptive Management and Quail Conservation on Rangelands in the American West

Adaptive management has been and is being practiced with the goal of sustaining populations of wild quails on large areas of rangelands in the American West. Because the current land use practices throughout most of the eastern two-thirds of the United States largely do not promote early-successional vegetation communities, rangelands contain the largest remaining blocks of contiguous (unfragmented) habitat for the northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) and the other 5 species of quails found in the western states. Many wildlife professionals on both private and public rangelands are practicing a diverse array of quail habitat and population management actions that could be considered a form of adaptive management—an iterative process used to make decisions in the context of uncertainty. Though this “learning by doing” approach is not always formally labeled adaptive management, these wildlife professionals intuitively recognize the value of the process in sustaining populations of wild quails. We support our assertions about adaptive management with 4 case study examples of adaptive management projects that promote quail conservation—including quail hunting—on both private and public rangelands in the American West. By discussing these scenarios within an adaptive management framework, we hope to highlight current and future opportunities for adaptive management in quail conservation on rangelands and to discuss where adaptive management may be improved or no longer be appropriate

Climate of Colinus and Callipepla: Current Patterns with Future Implications

Climate change is a ubiquitous phenomenon that affects species at multiple spatial scales. Species� trends that are currently being observed may have future implications for conservation within the context of a dynamic climate. We monitored northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus; here-after �bobwhite�) and scaled quail (Callipepla squamata) space use and survival trends at a local scale, while also modeling the potential biogeographic responses of all temperate North American quail to predicted patterns of climate change. For instance, provision of artificial surface water during periods of extreme drought may not be warranted in future decades if water availability is decreased and if such provisions provide no benefit to species. Both bobwhite and scaled quail exhibited behavioral responses to the provision of anthropogenic surface water during periods of extreme drought by selecting for areas within 700 m of surface water. The probability of space use was greater in areas closer to water for bobwhite during the non-breeding season (?? = -0.06, SE = 35� C), space use is least available for bobwhite. Furthermore, areas useable during the coldest thermal conditions are not similar to useable areas during periods of extreme heat events. These results further emphasize the need to understand local patterns and how they might affect regional responses in the context of climate change.Natural Resources and Ecology Managemen

Atubular glomeruli in a rat model of polycystic kidney disease

Atubular glomeruli in a rat model of polycystic kidney disease.BackgroundAutosomal-dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) is associated with a progressive decline in glomerular filtration rate (GFR) that often leads to end-stage renal disease. The basis for this decline in GFR is poorly understood.MethodsGlomeruli in heterozygous Han:SPRD rats with ADPKD and their normal litter mates were studied by light microscopy, using serial sectioning techniques. The connections of the renal corpuscles to proximal tubules were classified as normal, atrophied, or absent (atubular glomerulus). Renal corpuscles also were examined by scanning electron microscopy. Single nephron glomerular blood flows were determined using microspheres.ResultsIn the kidneys of six-month-old rats with ADPKD, 50% of the glomeruli were atubular and another 26% were associated with atrophied neck segments; these glomeruli were most often smaller in size than normal. About 16% of the glomeruli were hypertrophied and had normal connections to proximal tubules. Sclerotic changes in cystic kidney glomeruli were usually mild or moderate, and belied the failure of glomerular function. Glomerular blood flow in the cystic kidneys averaged half of normal and was markedly heterogeneous; the majority of small glomeruli displayed very low blood flows and a few showed relatively high blood flows. Fewer glomerular abnormalities were found in rats treated for five months with potassium citrate in their drinking water.ConclusionsThe diminished GFR in the rat with ADPKD can be accounted for largely by the formation of atubular glomeruli. Compensatory glomerular hypertrophy also is present and may contribute to the progression of the renal disease