Improved Offshore Wind Resource Assessment in Global Climate Stabilization Scenarios

This paper introduces a technique for digesting geospatial wind-speed data into areally defined -- country-level, in this case -- wind resource supply curves. We combined gridded wind-vector data for ocean areas with bathymetry maps, country exclusive economic zones, wind turbine power curves, and other datasets and relevant parameters to build supply curves that estimate a country's offshore wind resource defined by resource quality, depth, and distance-from-shore. We include a single set of supply curves -- for a particular assumption set -- and study some implications of including it in a global energy model. We also discuss the importance of downscaling gridded wind vector data to capturing the full resource potential, especially over land areas with complex terrain. This paper includes motivation and background for a statistical downscaling methodology to account for terrain effects with a low computational burden. Finally, we use this forum to sketch a framework for building synthetic electric networks to estimate transmission accessibility of renewable resource sites in remote areas

A low energy demand scenario for meeting the 1.5 °C target and sustainable development goals without negative emission technologies

Scenarios that limit global warming to 1.5 °C describe major transformations in energy supply and ever-rising energy demand. Here, we provide a contrasting perspective by developing a narrative of future change based on observable trends that results in low energy demand. We describe and quantify changes in activity levels and energy intensity in the global North and global South for all major energy services. We project that global final energy demand by 2050 reduces to 245 EJ, around 40% lower than today, despite rises in population, income and activity. Using an integrated assessment modelling framework, we show how changes in the quantity and type of energy services drive structural change in intermediate and upstream supply sectors (energy and land use). Down-sizing the global energy system dramatically improves the feasibility of a low-carbon supply-side transformation. Our scenario meets the 1.5 °C climate target as well as many sustainable development goals, without relying on negative emission technologies

Sensitivity of Utility-Scale Solar Deployment Projections in the SunShot Vision Study to Market and Performance Assumptions

The SunShot Vision Study explored the potential growth of solar markets if solar prices decreased by about 75% from 2010 to 2020. The ReEDS model was used to simulate utility PV and CSP deployment for this present study, based on several market and performance assumptions - electricity demand, natural gas prices, coal retirements, cost and performance of non-solar renewable technologies, PV resource variability, distributed PV deployment, and solar market supply growth - in addition to the SunShot solar price projections. This study finds that utility-scale solar deployment is highly sensitive to solar prices. Other factors can have significant impacts, particularly electricity demand and natural gas prices

Integrated Canada-U.S. Power Sector Modeling with the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS)

The electric power system in North America is linked between the United States and Canada. Canada has historically been a net exporter of electricity to the United States. The extent to which this remains true will depend on the future evolution of power markets, technology deployment, and policies. To evaluate these and related questions, we modify the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model to include an explicit representation of the grid-connected power system in Canada to the continental United States. ReEDS is unique among long-term capacity expansion models for its high spatial resolution and statistical treatment of the impact of variable renewable generation on capacity planning and dispatch. These unique traits are extended to new Canadian regions. We present example scenario results using the fully integrated Canada-U.S. version of ReEDS to demonstrate model capabilities. The newly developed, integrated Canada-U.S. ReEDS model can be used to analyze the dynamics of electricity transfers and other grid services between the two countries under different scenarios

Sensitivity of Utility-Scale Solar Deployment Projections in the SunShot Vision Study to Market and Performance Assumptions

The SunShot Vision Study explored the potential growth of solar markets if solar prices decreased by about 75% from 2010 to 2020. The ReEDS model was used to simulate utility PV and CSP deployment for this present study, based on several market and performance assumptions - electricity demand, natural gas prices, coal retirements, cost and performance of non-solar renewable technologies, PV resource variability, distributed PV deployment, and solar market supply growth - in addition to the SunShot solar price projections. This study finds that utility-scale solar deployment is highly sensitive to solar prices. Other factors can have significant impacts, particularly electricity demand and natural gas prices

Integrated Canada-U.S. Power Sector Modeling with the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS)

The electric power system in North America is linked between the United States and Canada. Canada has historically been a net exporter of electricity to the United States. The extent to which this remains true will depend on the future evolution of power markets, technology deployment, and policies. To evaluate these and related questions, we modify the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model to include an explicit representation of the grid-connected power system in Canada to the continental United States. ReEDS is unique among long-term capacity expansion models for its high spatial resolution and statistical treatment of the impact of variable renewable generation on capacity planning and dispatch. These unique traits are extended to new Canadian regions. We present example scenario results using the fully integrated Canada-U.S. version of ReEDS to demonstrate model capabilities. The newly developed, integrated Canada-U.S. ReEDS model can be used to analyze the dynamics of electricity transfers and other grid services between the two countries under different scenarios

Resource Planning Model: An Integrated Resource Planning and Dispatch Tool for Regional Electric Systems

This report introduces a new capacity expansion model, the Resource Planning Model (RPM), with high spatial and temporal resolution that can be used for mid- and long-term scenario planning of regional power systems. Although RPM can be adapted to any geographic region, the report describes an initial version of the model adapted for the power system in Colorado. It presents examples of scenario results from the first version of the model, including an example of a 30%-by-2020 renewable electricity penetration scenario

Improved Offshore Wind Resource Assessment in Global Climate Stabilization Scenarios

This paper introduces a technique for digesting geospatial wind-speed data into areally defined -- country-level, in this case -- wind resource supply curves. We combined gridded wind-vector data for ocean areas with bathymetry maps, country exclusive economic zones, wind turbine power curves, and other datasets and relevant parameters to build supply curves that estimate a country's offshore wind resource defined by resource quality, depth, and distance-from-shore. We include a single set of supply curves -- for a particular assumption set -- and study some implications of including it in a global energy model. We also discuss the importance of downscaling gridded wind vector data to capturing the full resource potential, especially over land areas with complex terrain. This paper includes motivation and background for a statistical downscaling methodology to account for terrain effects with a low computational burden. Finally, we use this forum to sketch a framework for building synthetic electric networks to estimate transmission accessibility of renewable resource sites in remote areas