Estimating and forecasting production and orders in manufacturing industry from business survey data: Evidence from Switzerland 1990-2003

A fundamental issue for policy-oriented business cycle research is access to leading - or at least coincident - and reliable indicators of economic activity in manufacturing industry. Therefore, we analyse how the quickly disposable, qualitative information of the business tendency survey conducted by the Swiss Institute for Business Cycle Research (KOF) is related to the official production and order statistics of Switzerland. Pairs of high cross-correlations were selected for further analyses (Granger causality, pattern of turning points). In the next step, the remaining variables are used as predictors of the official statistics in a bivariate and multivariate approach. The results show a very high and stable relationship between the two data-sets particularly for nowcasts and - though to a somewhat lesser degree - for short term prognostics

E-Cigarettes: Prevalence and Attitudes in Great Britain

Introduction: Electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) are a means of recreational nicotine use that can potentially eliminate the need to smoke tobacco. Little is known about the prevalence of use or smokers' attitudes toward e-cigarettes. This study describes use of and attitudes toward e-cigarettes in Britain. Methods: Respondents from three surveys were recruited from a panel of adults in Britain. Preliminary online and face-to-face qualitative research informed the development of a smokers' survey (486 smokers who had used e-cigarettes and 894 smokers who had not). Representative samples of adults in Britain were then constructed from the panel for population surveys in 2010 (12,597 adults, including 2,297 smokers) and 2012 (12,432 adults, including 2,093 smokers), generating estimates of the prevalence of e-cigarette use and trial in Great Britain. Results: Awareness, trial, and current use increased between 2010 and 2012; for example, current use more than doubled from 2.7% of smokers in 2010 to 6.7% in 2012. The proportion of ever-users currently using e-cigarettes was around one-third in both years. In 2012, 1.1% of ex-smokers reported current e-cigarette use, and a further 2.7% reported past use. Approximately 0.5% of never-smokers reported having tried e-cigarettes. Conclusions: While we found evidence supporting the view that e-cigarette use may be a bridge to quitting, we found very little evidence of e-cigarette use among adults who had never smoked. British smokers would benefit from information about the effective use, risks, and benefits of e-cigarettes, as this might enable the use of e-cigarettes to improve public health

Legitimating inaction : differing identity constructions of the Scots language.

The Scots language plays a key role in the political and cultural landscape of contemporary Scotland. From a discourse-historical perspective, this article explores how language ideologies about the Scots language are realized linguistically in a so-called ‘languages strategy’ drafted by the Scottish Executive, and in focus groups consisting of Scottish people. This article shows that although the decline of Scots is said to be a ‘tragedy’, focus group participants seem to reject the notion of Scots as a viable, contemporary language that can be used across a wide range of registers. The policy document also seems to construct Scots in very positive terms, but is shown to be unhelpful or potentially even damaging in the process of changing public attitudes to Scots

The collapsed tetragonal phase as a strongly covalent and fully nonmagnetic state: persistent magnetism with interlayer As-As bond formation in Rh-doped Ca0.8_{0.8}Sr0.2_{0.2}Fe2_2As2_2

A well-known feature of CaFe$_{2}$As$_{2}$-based superconductors is the pressure-induced collapsed tetragonal phase that is commonly ascribed to the formation of an interlayer As-As bond. Using detailed X-ray scattering and spectroscopy, we find that Rh-doped Ca$_{0.8}$Sr$_{0.2}$Fe$_{2}$As$_{2}$ does not undergo a first-order phase transition and that local Fe moments persist despite the formation of interlayer As-As bonds. Our density functional theory calculations reveal that the Fe-As bond geometry is critical for stabilizing magnetism and that the pressure-induced drop in the $c$ lattice parameter observed in pure CaFe$_{2}$As$_{2}$ is mostly due to a constriction within the FeAs planes. These phenomena are best understood using an often overlooked explanation for the equilibrium Fe-As bond geometry, which is set by a competition between covalent bonding and exchange splitting between strongly hybridized Fe $3d$ and As $4p$ states. In this framework, the collapsed tetragonal phase emerges when covalent bonding completely wins out over exchange splitting. Thus the collapsed tetragonal phase is properly understood as a strong, covalent phase that is fully nonmagnetic with the As-As bond forming as a byproduct.Comment: 6 pages, 2 figures, and 1 table. Supplemental materials are available by reques

Behavioral states in space and time: Understanding landscape use by an invasive mammal

Animal movement models can be used to understand species behavior and assist with implementation of management activities. We explored behavioral states of an invasive wild pig (Sus scrofa) population that recently colonized central Michigan, USA, 2014–2018. To quantify environmental factors related to wild pig movement ecology and spatio‐temporal landscape use, we predicted wild pig behavioral states relative to land cover type, landscape structure (i.e., edge and patch cohesion), and weather conditions. We used global positioning system (GPS)‐collars and monitored 8 wild pigs from 2014–2018. We fit local convex hulls and calculated movement metrics revealing 3 wild pig behavioral states (resting, exploratory, and relocating) and constructed a 3‐level model to predict behavioral state probabilities relative to biotic and abiotic conditions. Probabilities of exploratory and resting behaviors were higher nearer to riparian and open herbaceous cover types (oftentimes emergent marsh), indicating that these cover types provided security cover during activity and bedding. Hard mast cover types had a strong positive association with relocating behaviors. More cohesive patches of agriculture and shrub cover types were associated with higher probabilities of exploratory behaviors, while resting was more likely in continuous patches of agriculture (mostly mid‐summer corn). The probability of exploratory behaviors increased exponentially with warming ambient temperature. Our results may be used by managers to develop control strategies conducive to landscape and environmental conditions where the likelihood of encountering wild pigs is highest or targeting wild pigs when in a behavioral state most vulnerable to a particular removal technique

Effects of Wild Pig Disturbance on Forest Vegetation and Soils

In North America, wild pigs (Sus scrofa; feral pigs, feral swine, wild boars) are a widespread exotic species capable of creating large‐scale biotic and abiotic landscape perturbations. Quantification of wild pig environmental effects has been particularly problematic in northern climates, where they occur only recently as localized populations at low densities. Between 2016 and 2017, we assessed short‐term (within ~2 yrs of disturbance) effects of a low‐density wild pig population on forest features in the central Lower Peninsula of Michigan, USA. We identified 16 8‐ha sites using global positioning system locations from 7 radio‐collared wild pigs for sampling.Within each site, we conducted fine‐scale assessments at 81 plots and quantified potential disturbance by wild pigs. We defined disturbance as exposure of overturned soil, often resulting from rooting behavior by wild pigs.We quantified ground cover of plants within paired 1‐m2 frames at each plot, determined effects to tree regeneration using point‐centered quarter sampling, and collected soil cores from each plot. We observed less percent ground cover of native herbaceous plants and lower species diversity, particularly for plants with a coefficient of conservatism ≥5, in plots disturbed by wild pigs.We did not observe an increase in colonization of exotic plants following disturbance, though the observed prevalence of exotic plants was low. Wild pigs did not select for tree species when rooting, and we did not detect any differences in regeneration of light‐ and heavy‐seeded tree species between disturbed or undisturbed plots. Magnesium and ammonium content in soils were lower in disturbed plots, suggesting soil disturbance accelerated leaching of macronutrients, potentially altering nitrogen transformation. Our study suggested that disturbances by wild pigs, even at low densities, alters short‐term native herbaceous plant diversity and soil chemistry. Thus, small‐scale exclusion of wild pigs from vulnerable and rare plant communities may be warranted

Dibenzyl 3,3′,4,4′-tetra­methyl-5,5′-(ethynedi­yl)bis­(pyrrole-2-carboxyl­ate)

The title mol­ecule, C30H28N2O4, has crystallographic twofold rotation symmetry, with the pyrrole planes forming a dihedral angle of 40.49 (4)°. The pyrrole N—H donor and adjacent ester carbonyl acceptor form R 2 2(10) hydrogen-bonded rings about inversion centers, leading to chains of hydrogen-bonded mol­ecules along [001]

Genetic diversity of the rain tree (Albizia saman) in Colombian seasonally dry tropical forest for informing conservation and restoration interventions

Albizia saman is a multipurpose tree species of seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs) of Mesoamerica and northern South America typically cultivated in silvopastoral and other agroforestry systems around the world, a trend that is bound to increase in light of multimillion hectare commitments for forest and landscape restoration. The effective conservation and sustainable use of A. saman requires detailed knowledge of its genetic diversity across its native distribution range of which surprisingly little is known to date. We assessed the genetic diversity and structure of A.saman across twelve representative locations of SDTF in Colombia, and how they may have been shaped by past climatic changes and human influence. We found four different genetic groups which may be the result of differentiation due to isolation of populations in preglacial times. The current distribution and mixture of genetic groups across STDF fragments we observed might be the result of range expansion of SDTFs during the last glacial period followed by range contraction during the Holocene and human‐influenced movement of germplasm associated with cattle ranching. Despite the fragmented state of the presumed natural A. saman stands we sampled, we did not find any signs of inbreeding, suggesting that gene flow is not jeopardized in humanized landscapes. However, further research is needed to assess potential deleterious effects of fragmentation on progeny. Climate change is not expected to seriously threaten the in situ persistence of A. saman populations and might present opportunities for future range expansion. However, the sourcing of germplasm for tree planting activities needs to be aligned with the genetic affinity of reference populations across the distribution of Colombian SDTFs. We identify priority source populations for in situ conservation based on their high genetic diversity, lack or limited signs of admixture, and/or genetic uniqueness