Age-Specific Associations of Usual Blood Pressure Variability With Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality: 10-Year Diabetes Mellitus Cohort Study.

Background The detrimental effects of increased variability in systolic blood pressure (SBP) on cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality risk in patients with diabetes mellitus remains unclear. This study evaluated age-specific association of usual SBP visit-to-visit variability with CVD and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Methods and Results A retrospective cohort study investigated 155 982 patients with diabetes mellitus aged 45 to 84 years without CVD at baseline (2008-2010). Usual SBP variability was estimated using SBP SD obtained from a mixed-effects model. Age-specific associations (45-54, 55-64, 65-74, 75-84 years) between usual SBP variability, CVD, and mortality risk were assessed by Cox regression adjusted for patient characteristics. After a median follow-up of 9.7 years, 49 816 events (including 34 039 CVD events and 29 211 mortalities) were identified. Elevated SBP variability was independently, positively, and log-linearly associated with higher CVD and mortality risk among all age groups, with no evidence of any threshold effects. The excess CVD and mortality risk per 5 mm Hg increase in SBP variability within the 45 to 54 age group is >3 times higher than the 70 to 79 age group (hazard ratio, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.49-1.85 versus hazard ratio, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.15-1.23). The significant associations remained consistent among all subgroups. Patients with younger age had a higher association of SBP variability with event outcomes. Conclusions The findings suggest that SBP visit-to-visit variability was strongly associated with CVD and mortality with no evidence of a threshold effect in a population with diabetes mellitus. As well as controlling overall blood pressure levels, SBP visit-to-visit variability should be monitored and evaluated in routine practice, in particular for younger patients

Association of Genetic Variants Related to Combined Exposure to Higher Body Mass Index and Waist-to-Hip Ratio on Lifelong Cardiovascular Risk in UK Biobank

OBJECTIVE: This study examines the individual and combined association of body mass index (BMI) and 7 waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) with cardiovascular diseases (CVD) risk using genetic scores of the 8 obesity measurements as proxies. DESIGN: A 2×2 factorial analysis approach was applied, with participants divided into four groups of lifetime exposure to low BMI and WHR, high BMI, high WHR, and high BMI and WHR based on weighted genetic risk scores. The difference in CVD risk across groups was evaluated using multivariable logistic regression. SETTING: Cohort study. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 408,003 participants were included from the prospective observational UK Biobank study. RESULTS: A total of 58,429 of CVD events were recorded. Compared to the low BMI and WHR genetic scores group, higher BMI or higher WHR genetic scores were associated with an increase in CVD risk (high BMI: odds ratio (OR), 1.07; 95%CI, 1.04-1.10; high WHR: OR, 1.12; 95%CI, 1.09-1.16). A weak additive effect on CVD risk was found between BMI and WHR (high BMI and WHR: OR, 1.16; 95%CI, 1.12-1.19). Subgroup analysis showed similar patterns between different sex, age (<65, ≥65 years old), smoking status, Townsend deprivation index, fasting glucose level and medication uses, but lower systolic blood pressure was associated with higher CVD risk in obese participants. CONCLUSIONS: High BMI or WHR were associated with increased CVD risk, and their effects are weakly additive. Even though there were overlapping of effect, both BMI and WHR are important in assessing the CVD risk in the general population

Retrospective cohort study to investigate the 10-year trajectories of disease patterns in patients with hypertension and/or diabetes mellitus on subsequent cardiovascular outcomes and health service utilisation: a study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Hypertension (HT) and diabetes mellitus (DM) and are major disease burdens in all healthcare systems. Given their high impact on morbidity, premature death and direct medical costs, we need to optimise effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of primary care for patients with HT/DM. This study aims to find out the association of trajectories in disease patterns and treatment of patients with HT/DM including multimorbidity and continuity of care with disease outcomes and service utilisation over 10 years in order to identify better approaches to delivering primary care services. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A 10-year retrospective cohort study on a population-based primary care cohort of Chinese patients with documented doctor-diagnosed HT and/or DM, managed in the Hong Kong Hospital Authority (HA) public primary care clinics from 1 January 2006 to 31 December 2019. Data will be extracted from the HA Clinical Management System to identify trajectory patterns of patients with HT/DM. Complications defined by ICPC-2/International Classification of Diseases-Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification diagnosis codes, all-cause mortality rates and public service utilisation rates are included as independent variables. Changes in clinical parameters will be investigated using a growth mixture modelling analysis with standard quadratic trajectories. Dependent variables including effects of multimorbidity, measured by (1) disease count and (2) Charlson's Comorbidity Index, and continuity of care, measured by the Usual Provide Continuity Index, on patient outcomes and health service utilisation will be investigated. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression will be conducted to estimate the effect of multimorbidity and continuity of care after stratification of patients into groups according to respective definitions. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study was approved by the institutional review board of the University of Hong Kong-the HA Hong Kong West Cluster, reference no: UW 19-329. The study findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications and international conferences. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04302974

The Spill-Over Impact of the Novel Coronavirus-19 Pandemic on Medical Care and Disease Outcomes in Non-communicable Diseases: A Narrative Review

OBJECTIVES: The coronavirus-19 (COVID-19) pandemic has claimed more than 5 million lives worldwide by November 2021. Implementation of lockdown measures, reallocation of medical resources, compounded by the reluctance to seek help, makes it exceptionally challenging for people with non-communicable diseases (NCD) to manage their diseases. This review evaluates the spill-over impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on people with NCDs including cardiovascular diseases, cancer, diabetes mellitus, chronic respiratory disease, chronic kidney disease, dementia, mental health disorders, and musculoskeletal disorders. METHODS: Literature published in English was identified from PubMed and medRxiv from January 1, 2019 to November 30, 2020. A total of 119 articles were selected from 6,546 publications found. RESULTS: The reduction of in-person care, screening procedures, delays in diagnosis, treatment, and social distancing policies have unanimously led to undesirable impacts on both physical and psychological health of NCD patients. This is projected to contribute to more excess deaths in the future. CONCLUSION: The spill-over impact of COVID-19 on patients with NCD is just beginning to unravel, extra efforts must be taken for planning the resumption of NCD healthcare services post-pandemic

The Asia-Pacific Academic Primary Care Group (AAPCG): A Platform for regional Primary Care research collaboration

WONCA Asia Pacific Conference 201

Prediction of new onset of end stage renal disease in Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus – a population-based retrospective cohort study

Abstract Background Since diabetes mellitus (DM) is the leading cause of end stage renal disease (ESRD), this study aimed to develop a 5-year ESRD risk prediction model among Chinese patients with Type 2 DM (T2DM) in primary care. Methods A retrospective cohort study was conducted on 149,333 Chinese adult T2DM primary care patients without ESRD in 2010. Using the derivation cohort over a median of 5 years follow-up, the gender-specific models including the interaction effect between predictors and age were derived using Cox regression with a forward stepwise approach. Harrell’s C-statistic and calibration plot were applied to the validation cohort to assess discrimination and calibration of the models. Results Prediction models showed better discrimination with Harrell’s C-statistics of 0.866 (males) and 0.862 (females) and calibration power from the plots than other established models. The predictors included age, usages of anti-hypertensive drugs, anti-glucose drugs, and Hemogloblin A1c, blood pressure, urine albumin/creatinine ratio (ACR) and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Specific predictors for male were smoking and presence of sight threatening diabetic retinopathy while additional predictors for female included longer duration of diabetes and quadratic effect of body mass index. Interaction factors with age showed a greater weighting of insulin and urine ACR in younger males, and eGFR in younger females. Conclusions Our newly developed gender-specific models provide a more accurate 5-year ESRD risk predictions for Chinese diabetic primary care patients than other existing models. The models included several modifiable risk factors that clinicians can use to counsel patients, and to target at in the delivery of care to patients

Trends of clinical parameters and incidences of diabetes mellitus complications among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus in Hong Kong, 2010–2019: a retrospective cohort studyResearch in context

Summary: Background: Diabetes mellitus-related characteristics, including available medications, onset ages, and newly-introduced management program, have been changing recently in Hong Kong, especially after the introduction of the Risk Assessment and Management Program–Diabetes Mellitus in all outpatient clinics in 2009. To understand the plural change and improve the management of patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) based on the latest data, we examined the trends of clinical parameters, T2DM complications and mortality in patients with T2DM in Hong Kong from 2010 to 2019. Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, we acquired data from the Clinical Management System of the Hospital Authority in Hong Kong. Among adults with T2DM diagnosed on or before Sept 30, 2010, and with at least one attendance in general outpatient clinics between Aug 1, 2009, to Sept 30, 2010, we investigated the age-standardised trends of clinical parameters including haemoglobin A1c, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), body mass index and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), complications including cardiovascular disease (CVD), peripheral vascular disease (PVD), sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy (STDR), neuropathy, eGFR<45 mL/min/1.73 m2 and end-stage renal disease (ESRD), and all-cause mortality from 2010 to 2019 and tested the statistical significance of the trends using generalised estimating equation by sex, level of clinical parameters and age groups. Findings: In total, 82,650 males and 97,734 females with T2DM were identified. LDL-C decreased from 3 to 2 mmol/L in both males and females, while other clinical parameters changed within 5% over the full decade from 2010 to 2019. CVD, PVD, STDR, and neuropathy had declining incidences, while ESRD and all-cause mortality had increasing incidences from 2010 to 2019. The incidence of eGFR<45 mL/min/1.73 m2 increased in males but decreased in females. The odds ratio (OR) of ESRD (1.13, 95% CI [1.12, 1.15]) was highest in both males and females while the ORs of STDR (0.94, 95% CI [0.92, 0.96]) and neuropathy (0.90, 95% CI [0.88, 0.92]) were lowest in males and females, respectively. Complications and all-cause mortality trends varied among baseline HbA1c, eGFR, and age subgroups. In contrast to the findings in other age groups, the incidence of any outcomes did not decrease in younger patients (<45 years) from 2010 to 2019. Interpretation: Improvements were observed in LDL-C and incidences of most complications from 2010 to 2019. Worse performance in the younger age group and increasing incidence of renal complications and mortality need more attention in managing patients with T2DM. Funding: The Health and Medical Research Fund, the Health Bureau, and Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region