Projection of the number of patients with tuberculosis in the Netherlands in 2030

The incidence of tuberculosis (TB) in The Netherlands has been declining for many years. For the purpose of planning future TB-control activities we estimated the number of TB patients in The Netherlands up to 2030. Statistical modelling for 5-year age groups up to 2030 distinguishing among Dutch TB patients infected by a Dutch source (survival model), non-Dutch patients (projection of the proportion of culture-positive patients among first generation immigrants) and Dutch patients infected by a non-Dutch source (fixed relation with the number of non-Dutch patients). The number of TB patients is expected to decline to 877 in 2030. After 2010 declines may slow due to an increase in non-Dutch TB patients. This increase cancels out the decrease of Dutch TB patients infected by a Dutch source. In 2030, 85% of all TB patients are expected to be non-Dutch. In the four largest counties and the rest of The Netherlands, this will be 89 and 76%, respectively. The decrease in TB incidence observed over many years may stall from 2010 onwards because of an estimated increase in non-Dutch TB patients. Given their disproportionate burden, future TB-control activities should prioritize the health of first-generation immigrants. Enhanced TB control in the countries of origin and new diagnostic tests to identify those at high risk of developing active TB could help in reducing further the TB incidence in the Netherlands. Future TB-control efforts must be organized in a flexible way to be able to incorporate changing epidemiological situation

Tuberculosis treatment outcome monitoring in European Union countries: systematic review

Treatment success measured by treatment outcome monitoring (TOM) is a key programmatic output of tuberculosis (TB) control programmes. We performed a systematic literature review on national-level TOM in the 30 European Union (EU)/European Economic Areas (EEA) countries to summarise methods used to collect and report data on TOM. Online reference bibliographic databases PubMed/MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched to identify relevant indexed and non-indexed literature published between January 2000 and August 2010. The search strategy resulted in 615 potentially relevant indexed citations, of which 27 full-text national studies (79 data sets) were included for final analysis. The selected studies were performed in 10 EU/EEA countries and gave a fragmented impression of TOM in the EU/EEA. Publication year, study period, sample size, databases, definitions, variables, patient and outcome categories, and population subgroups varied widely, portraying a very heterogeneous picture. This review confirmed previous reports of considerable heterogeneity in publications of TOM results across EU/EEA countries. PubMed/MEDLINE and EMBASE indexed studies are not a suitable instrument to measure representative TOM results for the 30 EU/EEA countries. Uniform and complete reporting to the centralised European Surveillance System will produce the most timely and reliable results of TB treatment outcomes in the EU/EE