Patterns of Adjustment under the Age of Finance: The Case of Turkey as a Peripheral Agent of Neoliberal Globalization

Turkey experienced a severe economic and political crisis in November 2000 and again in February 2001.� The IMF has been involved with the macro management of the Turkish economy prior to�and after the crisis, and provided financial assistance of $20.4 billion between 1999 and 2003.� Following the crisis, Turkey implemented an orthodox strategy of raising interest rates and maintaining an overvalued exchange rate. The government was forced to follow a contractionary fiscal policy�to attain a primary surplus of 6.5% of the GNP, and promised to satisfy the customary IMF demands: reduce subsidies to agriculture, privatize, and reduce the role of the public sector in economic activity. � Contrary to the traditional stabilization packages that aim to�increase interest rates to constrain domestic demand, the new orthodoxy aimed at maintaining high interest rates to attract speculative foreign capital.�The end result in Turkey�was shrinkage of the public sector; deteriorating education and health infrastructure; and failure to provide basic social services to the middle class and the poor.� Furthermore, as the domestic industry intensified its import dependence, it was forced to adopt increasingly capital-intensive, foreign technologies with adverse consequences on domestic employment. �In the meantime the transnational companies and the international finance institutions have become the real governors of the country, with implicit veto power over any economic and or political decision that is likely to act against the interests of global capital.�

On the Nature and Causes of the Collapse of the Wealth of Nations, 2007-2008: The End of a Façade Called Globalization

In this working paper, Erinç Yeldan investigates the 2007-2008 financial crisis, hailed as the most devastating (and complex) crisis of capitalism since the great depression of 1929. He suggests that the 2007-2008 crisis was not the end result of a series of technical errors or ad hoc developments that occurred on their own, but was instead the result of the systemic imbalances of capitalism over the last three decades. In order to evaluate the conditions of the global crisis more clearly, Yeldan considers it critical that its underlying structural causes are understood. The paper reflects the Marxian literature on crises, prominently that of Rosa Luxemburg, pointing out to the necessity of a ‘corrective war’ in order to break with old institutions, old technologies, and old methods of accumulation.Crises of capitalism; Bretton Woods system, golden age of capital; financialization; corrective war

On Turkey's European Trade Policy: How Desirable is a Status Quo

International Relations/Trade,

Interest Rate Smoothing and Macroeconomic Instability under Post-Capital Account Liberalization Turkey

This Working Paper studies how the interest rate policy of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) has evolved under the post-financial liberalization and deregulation era. Utilizing econometric methods on a generalized form of a Taylor Rule the authors search for the possible revelation of a variety of determinants of monetary policy with different objectives over 1994-2007. They find that over such an extended time horizon during which significant shifts in the macroeconomic environment have occurred, the CBRT’s almost exclusive focus on “interest rate smoothing” has not changed; and that the CBRT has not paid any attention to developments in national income. <p></p> This raises the question whether there is a deeper underlying structural constraint, binding the CBRT’s alleged “independence”. The authors trace the basics of this deep structural constraint to the nature of the global financial system restricting the ability of the central banks to pursue “independent” policy objectives.

An Open Economy Model of Political Influence and Competition Among Rent Seeking Groups

The paper develops a formal model of government's economic decisions as influenced by private agents within the context of neoclassical political economy. The government is assumed to form preferences over interest groups in the economy; in turn these preferences are influenced by the rent seeking behavior of these groups. An open, two-household, two-sector general equilibrium model is constructed to depict an environment in which preference-maximizing (rational) individuals allocate otherwise productive labor to directly unproductive rent seeking activities in order to exert political pressure on the government's choice of policy instruments. With the aid of five comparative-static experiments, the game-theoretic component and the second-best nature of the rent seeking environment is discussed. Insights are also provided on the influence of technological change, and changes in lobbying efficiency on resources allocated to rent seeking by interest groups. Key words: Rent Seeking, Political Economy, General Equilibrium.Political Economy,

How the Asian crisis affected the world economy : a general equilibrium perspective

Financial crises

Thermomechanical fatigue failure of interfaces in lead-free solders

The European Union Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment Directive (WEEE) and Restriction of Hazardous Substances Directive (RoHS) banned lead from electronic systems from July 1, 2006 onwards, which has led to much interest in leadfree solders in the past years. Among several lead-free solder alternatives, SnAgCu is a widely accepted replacement due to its better creep-fatigue resistance and microstructural stability. SnAgCu has been extensively studied in the past decade, however, there are still issues to be resolved concerning solder reliability, the underlying mechanisms of thermo-mechanical fatigue failure, fatigue life predictions and the overall effect of decreasing component size, driven by the ongoing miniaturization trend. This thesis aims to scientifically contribute to this subject by a coupled experimental-numerical approach. In solder joint reliability, the bump/pad interface has a crucial role, the quality of which is determined by the metallization and interfacial defects. Solder balls, solder paste and cast eutectic SnAgCu are reflowed on Cu, Ni/Au and Cu/Ni(V)/Au metallization layers and the substrate influence on the bulk and interfacial metallurgy is examined. The damage propagation at SnAgCu soldered joints on Cu and Ni/Au substrates are investigated and microstructure related damage localization is identified as the dominant failure mechanism. Therefore, continuum damage approaches are believed to be inadequate for solder joint reliability predictions. Nano-indentation and tensile testing is used for the mechanical characterization of SnAgCu. An assessment on indentation parameters for solders is conducted and the influence of the Ag content on material properties of SnAgCu is presented. One of the main causes of ball grid array (BGA) failure is thermo-mechanical fatigue crack propagation in the solder, which is almost always observed at the bump/pad junction. Motivated by this fact, a combined experimental-numerical study on the cyclic mechanical response of SnAgCu/Ni-Au interface is conducted. In this study, damage evolution at the bond/pad interface is characterized by dedicated fatigue tests. Local deformations leading to crack propagation are simulated by separation of interfaces through a cohesive zone approach. Solder joints are tested under cyclic shear and cyclic tension for different specimen sizes and strain amplitudes. Two different damagemechanisms are observed: local deformations in the bulk and at the bonding interface. The interfacial failure mode is typically favored at a high initial stress, and a small solder volume. Crack propagation is simulated by an irreversible linear traction-separation cohesive zone law accompanied by a non-linear interfacial damage parameter. Later, tensile and shear experiments are used to characterize the cohesive zone parameters for the normal and the tangential opening, respectively. Interfacial fatigue damage in BGA solders is caused by the difference in coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) of the materials in the package. Apart from this thermal incompatibility in the package, Sn based solders are themselves prone to thermal fatigue damage due to the intrinsic thermal anisotropy of the ß-Sn phase. Thermal fatigue causes local deformations especially at the grain boundaries. Hence, the thermal fatigue response of bulk SnAgCu is investigated as well. Bulk SnAgCu specimens are thermally cycled between -40 and 125¿C and mechanically tested afterwards in order to quantify the thermal fatigue damage. A size dependent cyclic softening behavior is observed. Test specimens are individually modeled including the microstructure and local crystallographic orientations, on the basis of orientation imaging scans (OIM). Both thermal cycling and tensile testing are imposed as boundary conditions. Reproducing the experimental results in the simulations, parameters of a cohesive zone based intergranular fatigue damagemodel are identified. Finally, the intergranular damage law characterized in this study is combined with the bump/pad interfacial damage law, and a 2Dmicrostructure-incorporated fatigue life prediction tool is established. Using this tool, it is shown that the failure mode of a soldered joint depends extensively on its geometry. The model presented above is extended to 3D for a more complete description of the problem. To provide the microstructural input, a database containing OIM scans of several SnAgCu solder balls is constructed. A missing constituent in the model so far, interfacial defects, i.e. voids, are examined statistically using newly manufactured BGA packages, revealing information on their size, position and frequency. Combining all the data collected, i.e. material properties, microstructure, defects, local damage laws, a 3D slice model from a BGA package is constructed. The slice model contains a single solder ball connecting the board and the chip. A series of case studies is created using experimental input such as different microstructures and initial defects allowing a statistical analysis. Fatigue life of these models are predicted and the results are validated by failure distribution analyses of BGA packages provided by the industry. Here the critical solder ball assumption is made: if a solder ball fails, the electrical circuit of the BGA package is open, thus the package fails. Setting a critical damage value for the interfaces accumulating fatigue damage, a good agreement with the experiments and simulations is obtained. It is seen that microstructural modeling allows to predict and understand the scatter in the solder ball fatigue life observed in reality. Finally, the effect of solder ball size and geometry on interconnect reliability is dis cussed on the basis of numerical analyses. For this purpose, a geometry factor and a microstructure factor is defined, and their influence on damage evolution is discusse

Thermomechanical fatigue failure of interfaces in lead-free solders

The European Union Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment Directive (WEEE) and Restriction of Hazardous Substances Directive (RoHS) banned lead from electronic systems from July 1, 2006 onwards, which has led to much interest in leadfree solders in the past years. Among several lead-free solder alternatives, SnAgCu is a widely accepted replacement due to its better creep-fatigue resistance and microstructural stability. SnAgCu has been extensively studied in the past decade, however, there are still issues to be resolved concerning solder reliability, the underlying mechanisms of thermo-mechanical fatigue failure, fatigue life predictions and the overall effect of decreasing component size, driven by the ongoing miniaturization trend. This thesis aims to scientifically contribute to this subject by a coupled experimental-numerical approach. In solder joint reliability, the bump/pad interface has a crucial role, the quality of which is determined by the metallization and interfacial defects. Solder balls, solder paste and cast eutectic SnAgCu are reflowed on Cu, Ni/Au and Cu/Ni(V)/Au metallization layers and the substrate influence on the bulk and interfacial metallurgy is examined. The damage propagation at SnAgCu soldered joints on Cu and Ni/Au substrates are investigated and microstructure related damage localization is identified as the dominant failure mechanism. Therefore, continuum damage approaches are believed to be inadequate for solder joint reliability predictions. Nano-indentation and tensile testing is used for the mechanical characterization of SnAgCu. An assessment on indentation parameters for solders is conducted and the influence of the Ag content on material properties of SnAgCu is presented. One of the main causes of ball grid array (BGA) failure is thermo-mechanical fatigue crack propagation in the solder, which is almost always observed at the bump/pad junction. Motivated by this fact, a combined experimental-numerical study on the cyclic mechanical response of SnAgCu/Ni-Au interface is conducted. In this study, damage evolution at the bond/pad interface is characterized by dedicated fatigue tests. Local deformations leading to crack propagation are simulated by separation of interfaces through a cohesive zone approach. Solder joints are tested under cyclic shear and cyclic tension for different specimen sizes and strain amplitudes. Two different damagemechanisms are observed: local deformations in the bulk and at the bonding interface. The interfacial failure mode is typically favored at a high initial stress, and a small solder volume. Crack propagation is simulated by an irreversible linear traction-separation cohesive zone law accompanied by a non-linear interfacial damage parameter. Later, tensile and shear experiments are used to characterize the cohesive zone parameters for the normal and the tangential opening, respectively. Interfacial fatigue damage in BGA solders is caused by the difference in coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) of the materials in the package. Apart from this thermal incompatibility in the package, Sn based solders are themselves prone to thermal fatigue damage due to the intrinsic thermal anisotropy of the ß-Sn phase. Thermal fatigue causes local deformations especially at the grain boundaries. Hence, the thermal fatigue response of bulk SnAgCu is investigated as well. Bulk SnAgCu specimens are thermally cycled between -40 and 125¿C and mechanically tested afterwards in order to quantify the thermal fatigue damage. A size dependent cyclic softening behavior is observed. Test specimens are individually modeled including the microstructure and local crystallographic orientations, on the basis of orientation imaging scans (OIM). Both thermal cycling and tensile testing are imposed as boundary conditions. Reproducing the experimental results in the simulations, parameters of a cohesive zone based intergranular fatigue damagemodel are identified. Finally, the intergranular damage law characterized in this study is combined with the bump/pad interfacial damage law, and a 2Dmicrostructure-incorporated fatigue life prediction tool is established. Using this tool, it is shown that the failure mode of a soldered joint depends extensively on its geometry. The model presented above is extended to 3D for a more complete description of the problem. To provide the microstructural input, a database containing OIM scans of several SnAgCu solder balls is constructed. A missing constituent in the model so far, interfacial defects, i.e. voids, are examined statistically using newly manufactured BGA packages, revealing information on their size, position and frequency. Combining all the data collected, i.e. material properties, microstructure, defects, local damage laws, a 3D slice model from a BGA package is constructed. The slice model contains a single solder ball connecting the board and the chip. A series of case studies is created using experimental input such as different microstructures and initial defects allowing a statistical analysis. Fatigue life of these models are predicted and the results are validated by failure distribution analyses of BGA packages provided by the industry. Here the critical solder ball assumption is made: if a solder ball fails, the electrical circuit of the BGA package is open, thus the package fails. Setting a critical damage value for the interfaces accumulating fatigue damage, a good agreement with the experiments and simulations is obtained. It is seen that microstructural modeling allows to predict and understand the scatter in the solder ball fatigue life observed in reality. Finally, the effect of solder ball size and geometry on interconnect reliability is dis cussed on the basis of numerical analyses. For this purpose, a geometry factor and a microstructure factor is defined, and their influence on damage evolution is discusse

An intertemporal, multi-region general equilibrium model of agricultural trade liberalization in the South Mediterranean NICs, Turkey, and the European Union

With the aid of an intertemporal, multi-region general equilibrium model, the authors study issues of agricultural trade liberalization, growth and capital accumulation in the context of a world economy moving towards a multi-polar structure. They specifically focus on Turkey, the European Union, the Middle East, and the Economies in Transition; and study alternative scenarios of formation of customs unions and increased trade orientation. The model is based on intertemporal general equilibrium theory with Ramsey-type dynamics. The world economy is fully endogenized within a 9-region specification, with Turkey, EU, Middle East and the Transition Economies constituting as one of the indigenous regions. A key feature of the model is its explicit recognition of both the commodity and foreign capital flows across regions in an endogenous setting, and its explicit portrayal of the out-of-steady state dynamics under an intertemporal optimization framework. They explore the short- versus the long-run economic impacts of alternative trade and investment policies on agricultural production, foreign trade, resource allocation, accumulation, consumer welfare, and income distribution in the regions of analyis. The results reveal significant gains from increased bilateral trade between the identified regions, and further underscore the crucial importance of financing commodity trade deficits in sustaining the accumulation patterns.Economics Models. ,Trade liberalization. ,Foreign trade Mathematical models. ,Agricultural trade. ,TMD ,

How Fiscal (Mis)-Management May Impede Trade Reform: Lessons From an Intertemporal, Multi-Sector General Equilibrium Model for Turkey

We utilize a multi-sector general equilibrium model based on intertemporally optimizing agents to study issues of trade liberalization and fiscal adjustments in the context of the Turkish economy. A key feature of the model is its explicit recognition of the distortionary consequences of excessive borrowing requirements of the public sector through increased domestic interest costs. The model results suggest that the postponement of adjustment to growing public debt and fiscal imbalances could be detrimental; and that in the absence of coordinated fiscal reforms, the welfare gains expected from trade liberalization may significantly be negated.International Relations/Trade,