Long‐term Cardiovascular Risks Associated With an Elevated Heart Rate: The Framingham Heart Study

Background: Higher heart rate has been associated with an adverse prognosis, but most prior studies focused on individuals with known cardiovascular disease or examined a limited number of outcomes. We sought to examine the association of baseline heart rate with both fatal and nonfatal outcomes during 2 decades of follow‐up. Methods and Results: Our study included 4058 Framingham Heart Study participants (mean age 55 years, 56% women). Cox models were performed with multivariable adjustment for clinical risk factors and physical activity. A total of 708 participants developed incident cardiovascular disease (303 heart failure, 343 coronary heart disease, and 216 stroke events), 48 received a permanent pacemaker, and 1186 died. Baseline heart rate was associated with incident cardiovascular disease (hazard ratio [HR] 1.15 per 1 SD [11 bpm] increase in heart rate, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.24, P=0.0002), particularly heart failure (HR 1.32, 95% CI 1.18 to 1.48, P<0.0001). Higher heart rate was also associated with higher all‐cause (HR 1.17, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.24, P<0.0001) and cardiovascular mortality (HR 1.18, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.33, P=0.01). Spline analyses did not suggest a lower threshold beyond which the benefit of a lower heart rate abated or increased. In contrast, individuals with a higher heart rate had a lower risk of requiring permanent pacemaker placement (HR 0.55, 95% CI 0.38 to 0.79, P=0.001). Conclusions: Individuals with a higher heart rate are at elevated long‐term risk for cardiovascular events, in particular, heart failure, and all‐cause death. On the other hand, a higher heart rate is associated with a lower risk of future permanent pacemaker implantation

Association of Novel Biomarkers of Cardiovascular Stress With Left Ventricular Hypertrophy and Dysfunction: Implications for Screening

Background: Currently available screening tools for left ventricular (LV) hypertrophy (LVH) and systolic dysfunction (LVSD) are either expensive (echocardiography) or perform suboptimally (B‐type natriuretic peptide [BNP]). It is unknown whether newer biomarkers are associated with LVH and LVSD and can serve as screening tools. Methods and Results: We studied 2460 Framingham Study participants (mean age 58 years, 57% women) with measurements of biomarkers mirroring cardiac biomechanical stress (soluble ST‐2 [ST2], growth differentiation factor‐15 [GDF‐15] and high‐sensitivity troponin I [hsTnI]) and BNP. We defined LVH as LV mass/height2 ≥the sex‐specific 80th percentile and LVSD as mild/greater impairment of LV ejection fraction (LVEF) or a fractional shortening <0.29. Adjusting for standard risk factors in logistic models, BNP, GDF‐15, and hsTnI were associated with the composite echocardiographic outcome (LVH or LVSD), odds ratios (OR) per SD increment in log‐biomarker 1.29, 1.14, and 1.18 (95% CI: 1.15 to 1.44, 1.004 to 1.28, and 1.06 to 1.31), respectively. The C‐statistic for the composite outcome increased from 0.765 with risk factors to 0.770 adding BNP, to 0.774 adding novel biomarkers. The continuous Net Reclassification Improvement was 0.212 (95% CI: 0.119 to 0.305, P<0.0001) after adding the novel biomarkers to risk factors plus BNP. BNP was associated with LVH and LVSD in multivariable models, whereas GDF‐15 was associated with LVSD (OR 1.41, 95% CI: 1.16 to 1.70), and hsTnI with LVH (OR 1.22, 95% CI: 1.09 to 1.36). ST2 was not significantly associated with any outcome. Conclusions: Our community‐based investigation suggests that cardiac stress biomarkers are associated with LVH and LVSD but may have limited clinical utility as screening tools

Interpreting neurologic outcomes in a changing trial design landscape: An analysis of HeartWare left ventricular assist device using a hybrid intention to treat population

Randomized controlled trials can provide optimal clinical evidence to assess the benefits of new devices, and it is these data that often shape device usage in real-world practice. However, individual clinical trial results sometimes appear discordant for the same device, and alternative devices are sometimes not employed in similar patient populations. To make sound evidence-based decisions, clinicians routinely rely on cross-trial comparisons from different trials of similar but not identical patient populations to assess competing technology when head-to-head randomized comparisons are unavailable

Common Genetic Variation at the IL1RL1 Locus Regulates IL-33/ST2 Signaling

The suppression of tumorigenicity 2/IL-33 (ST2/IL-33) pathway has been implicated in several immune and inflammatory diseases. ST2 is produced as 2 isoforms. The membrane-bound isoform (ST2L) induces an immune response when bound to its ligand, IL-33. The other isoform is a soluble protein (sST2) that is thought to be a decoy receptor for IL-33 signaling. Elevated sST2 levels in serum are associated with an increased risk for cardiovascular disease. We investigated the determinants of sST2 plasma concentrations in 2,991 Framingham Offspring Cohort participants. While clinical and environmental factors explained some variation in sST2 levels, much of the variation in sST2 production was driven by genetic factors. In a genome-wide association study (GWAS), multiple SNPs within IL1RL1 (the gene encoding ST2) demonstrated associations with sST2 concentrations. Five missense variants of IL1RL1 correlated with higher sST2 levels in the GWAS and mapped to the intracellular domain of ST2, which is absent in sST2. In a cell culture model, IL1RL1 missense variants increased sST2 expression by inducing IL-33 expression and enhancing IL-33 responsiveness (via ST2L). Our data suggest that genetic variation in IL1RL1 can result in increased levels of sST2 and alter immune and inflammatory signaling through the ST2/IL-33 pathway.Stem Cell and Regenerative Biolog

Distribution and clinical correlates of the interleukin receptor family member soluble ST2 in the Framingham Heart Study.

BACKGROUND: Soluble ST2 (sST2) is a cardiac biomarker whose concentration rises in response to myocardial strain. Increased sST2 concentrations may predict adverse outcomes in patients with heart failure and myocardial infarction. Because sST2 was largely undetectable with first-generation assays in ambulatory individuals, there are few data regarding its distribution and correlates in community-based populations. METHODS: We measured sST2 using a highly sensitive ELISA in 3450 Framingham Heart Study participants who attended a routine examination. We used multivariable linear regression models to identify covariates associated with sST2 in the general sample. We obtained a reference sample (n = 1136) by excluding individuals with prevalent coronary disease, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, diabetes, hypertension, obesity, valvular disease, left ventricular systolic dysfunction, and pulmonary and renal dysfunction. We used empiric and quantile regression techniques to estimate the 2.5th, 50th, 97.5th, and 99th quantiles. RESULTS: In the general sample (mean age 59 years, 55% women), systolic blood pressure (P = 0.006), antihypertensive medication use (P = 0.03), and diabetes (P \u3c 0.001) were associated with sST2 concentrations. In the reference sample (mean age 55, 59% women), male sex (P \u3c 0.0001) and older age (P = 0.004) were predictive of higher sST2 concentrations. Quantile and empirical methods were used to define the reference intervals. Using the empirical approach, upper 99% percentile values in different age groups ranged from 46.6 to 64.4 μg/L in men and 36.7 to 53.0 μg/L in women. CONCLUSIONS: In a well-characterized, community-based cohort, values for sST2 differ between men and women, increase with age, and are associated with diabetes and hypertension

Relation between soluble ST2, growth differentiation factor-15, and high-sensitivity troponin I and incident atrial fibrillation

BACKGROUND: We investigated whether circulating concentrations of soluble ST2, growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15), and high-sensitivity troponin I (hsTnI) are associated with incident atrial fibrillation (AF) and whether these biomarkers improve current risk prediction models including AF risk factors, B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP), and C-reactive protein (CRP). METHODS: We studied the relation between soluble ST2, GDF-15, and hsTnI and development of AF in Framingham Heart Study participants without prevalent AF. We used Cox proportional hazard regression analysis to examine the relation of incident AF during a 10-year follow-up period with each biomarker. We adjusted for standard AF clinical risk factors, BNP, and CRP. RESULTS: The mean age of the 3,217 participants was 59 +/- 10 years, and 54% were women. During a 10-year follow-up, 242 participants developed AF. In age- and sex-adjusted models, GDF-15 and hsTnI were associated with risk of incident AF; however, after including the AF risk factors and BNP and CRP, only hsTnI was significantly associated with AF (hazard ratio per 1 SD of loge hsTnI, 1.12, 95% CI 1.00-1.26, P = .045). The c statistic of the base model including AF risk factors, BNP, and CRP was 0.803 (95% CI 0.777-0.830) and did not improve by adding individual or all 3 biomarkers. None of the discrimination and reclassification statistics were significant compared with the base model. CONCLUSION: In a community-based cohort, circulating hsTnI concentrations were associated with incident AF. None of the novel biomarkers evaluated improved AF risk discrimination or reclassification beyond standard clinical AF risk factors and biomarkers

Common genetic variation at the IL1RL1 locus regulates IL-33/ST2 signaling

The suppression of tumorigenicity 2/IL-33 (ST2/IL-33) pathway has been implicated in several immune and inflammatory diseases. ST2 is produced as 2 isoforms. The membrane-bound isoform (ST2L) induces an immune response when bound to its ligand, IL-33. The other isoform is a soluble protein (sST2) that is thought to be a decoy receptor for IL-33 signaling. Elevated sST2 levels in serum are associated with an increased risk for cardiovascular disease. We investigated the determinants of sST2 plasma concentrations in 2, 991 Framingham Offspring Cohort participants. While clinical and environmental factors explained some variation in sST2 levels, much of the variation in sST2 production was driven by genetic factors. In a genome-wide association study (GWAS), multiple SNPs within IL1RL1 (the gene encoding ST2) demonstrated associations with sST2 concentrations. Five missense variants of IL1RL1 correlated with higher sST2 levels in the GWAS and mapped to the intracellular domain of ST2, which is absent in sST2. In a cell culture model, IL1RL1 missense variants increased sST2 expression by inducing IL-33 expression and enhancing IL-33 responsiveness (via ST2L). Our data suggest that genetic variation in IL1RL1 can result in increased levels of sST2 and alter immune and inflammatory signaling through the ST2/IL-33 pathway