An Empirically Derived Three-Dimensional Laplace Resonance in the Gliese 876 Planetary System

We report constraints on the three-dimensional orbital architecture for all four planets known to orbit the nearby M dwarf Gliese 876 based solely on Doppler measurements and demanding long-term orbital stability. Our dataset incorporates publicly available radial velocities taken with the ELODIE and CORALIE spectrographs, HARPS, and Keck HIRES as well as previously unpublished HIRES velocities. We first quantitatively assess the validity of the planets thought to orbit GJ 876 by computing the Bayes factors for a variety of different coplanar models using an importance sampling algorithm. We find that a four-planet model is preferred over a three-planet model. Next, we apply a Newtonian MCMC algorithm to perform a Bayesian analysis of the planet masses and orbits using an n-body model in three-dimensional space. Based on the radial velocities alone, we find that a 99% credible interval provides upper limits on the mutual inclinations for the three resonant planets ($\Phi_{cb}<6.20^\circ$ for the "c" and "b" pair and $\Phi_{be}<28.5^\circ$ for the "b" and "e" pair). Subsequent dynamical integrations of our posterior sample find that the GJ 876 planets must be roughly coplanar ($\Phi_{cb}<2.60^\circ$ and $\Phi_{be}<7.87^\circ$), suggesting the amount of planet-planet scattering in the system has been low. We investigate the distribution of the respective resonant arguments of each planet pair and find that at least one argument for each planet pair and the Laplace argument librate. The libration amplitudes in our three-dimensional orbital model supports the idea of the outer-three planets having undergone significant past disk migration.Comment: 19 pages, 11 figures, 8 tables. Accepted to MNRAS. Posterior samples available at https://github.com/benelson/GJ87

The 55 Cancri Planetary System: Fully Self-Consistent N-body Constraints and a Dynamical Analysis

We present an updated study of the planets known to orbit 55 Cancri A using 1,418 high-precision radial velocity observations from four observatories (Lick, Keck, Hobby-Eberly Telescope, Harlan J. Smith Telescope) and transit time/durations for the inner-most planet, 55 Cancri "e" (Winn et al. 2011). We provide the first posterior sample for the masses and orbital parameters based on self-consistent n-body orbital solutions for the 55 Cancri planets, all of which are dynamically stable (for at least $10^8$ years). We apply a GPU version of Radial velocity Using N-body Differential evolution Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RUN DMC; B. Nelson et al. 2014) to perform a Bayesian analysis of the radial velocity and transit observations. Each of the planets in this remarkable system has unique characteristics. Our investigation of high-cadence radial velocities and priors based on space-based photometry yields an updated mass estimate for planet "e" ($8.09\pm0.26$ M$_\oplus$), which affects its density ($5.51\pm^{1.32}_{1.00}$ g cm$^{-3}$) and inferred bulk composition. Dynamical stability dictates that the orbital plane of planet "e" must be aligned to within $60^o$ of the orbital plane of the outer planets (which we assume to be coplanar). The mutual interactions between the planets "b" and "c" may develop an apsidal lock about $180^o$. We find 36-45% of all our model systems librate about the anti-aligned configuration with an amplitude of $51^o\pm^{6^o}_{10^o}$. Other cases showed short-term perturbations in the libration of $\varpi_b-\varpi_c$, circulation, and nodding, but we find the planets are not in a 3:1 mean-motion resonance. A revised orbital period and eccentricity for planet "d" pushes it further toward the closest known Jupiter analog in the exoplanet population.Comment: 12 pages, 5 figures, 4 tables, accepted to MNRAS. Figure 2 (left) is updated from published version. Posterior samples available at http://www.personal.psu.edu/ben125/Downloads.htm

Estimating encounter location distributions from animal tracking data

1. Ecologists have long been interested in linking individual behaviour with higher level processes. For motile species, this ‘upscaling’ is governed by how well any given movement strategy maximizes encounters with positive factors and minimizes encounters with negative factors. Despite the importance of encounter events for a broad range of ecological processes, encounter theory has not kept pace with developments in animal tracking or movement modelling. Furthermore, existing work has focused primarily on the relationship between animal movement and encounter rates while the relationship between individual movement and the spatial locations of encounter events in the environment has remained conspicuously understudied. 2. Here, we bridge this gap by introducing a method for describing the long-term encounter location probabilities for movement within home ranges, termed the conditional distribution of encounters (CDE). We then derive this distribution, as well as confidence intervals, implement its statistical estimator into open-source software and demonstrate the broad ecological relevance of this distribution. 3. We first use simulated data to show how our estimator provides asymptotically consistent estimates. We then demonstrate the general utility of this method for three simulation-based scenarios that occur routinely in biological systems: (a) a population of individuals with home ranges that overlap with neighbours; (b) a pair of individuals with a hard territorial border between their home ranges; and (c) a predator with a large home range that encompassed the home ranges of multiple prey individuals. Using GPS data from white-faced capuchins Cebus capucinus, tracked on Barro Colorado Island, Panama, and sleepy lizards Tiliqua rugosa, tracked in Bundey, South Australia, we then show how the CDE can be used to estimate the locations of territorial borders, identify key resources, quantify the potential for competitive or predatory interactions and/or identify any changes in behaviour that directly result from location-specific encounter probability. 4. The CDE enables researchers to better understand the dynamics of populations of interacting individuals. Notably, the general estimation framework developed in this work builds straightforwardly off of home range estimation and requires no specialized data collection protocols. This method is now openly available via the ctmm R package

Pathogenicity and Epitope Characteristics Do Not Differ in IgG Subclass-Switched Anti-Desmoglein 3 IgG1 and IgG4 Autoantibodies in Pemphigus Vulgaris

Pemphigus vulgaris (PV) is characterized by IgG1 and IgG4 autoantibodies to desmoglein (Dsg) 3, causing suprabasal blistering of skin and mucous membranes. IgG4 is the dominant autoantibody subclass in PV and correlates with disease activity, whereas IgG1 can be associated with remittent disease. It is unknown if switching the same variable region between IgG4 and IgG1 directly impacts pathogenicity. Here, we tested whether three pathogenic PV monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) from three different patients demonstrate differences in antigen affinity, epitope specificity, or pathogenicity when expressed as IgG1 or IgG4. F706 anti-Dsg3 IgG4 and F779 anti-Dsg3 IgG1, previously isolated as heterohybridomas, and Px43, a monovalent anti-Dsg3/Dsg1 IgG antibody isolated by phage display, were subcloned to obtain paired sets of IgG1 and IgG4 mAbs. Using ELISA and cell surface staining assays, F706 and F779 demonstrated similar antigen binding affinities of IgG1 and IgG4, whereas Px43 showed 3- to 8-fold higher affinity of IgG4 versus IgG1 by ELISA, but identical binding affinities to human skin, perhaps due to targeting of a quaternary epitope best displayed in tissues. All 3 mAb pairs targeted the same extracellular cadherin (EC) domain on Dsg3, caused Dsg3 internalization in primary human keratinocytes, and caused suprabasal blisters in human skin at comparable doses. We conclude that switching IgG1 and IgG4 subclasses of pathogenic PV mAbs does not directly affect their antigen binding or pathogenic properties

Spatial Patterns of Aflatoxin Levels in Relation to Ear-Feeding Insect Damage in Pre-Harvest Corn

Key impediments to increased corn yield and quality in the southeastern US coastal plain region are damage by ear-feeding insects and aflatoxin contamination caused by infection of Aspergillus flavus. Key ear-feeding insects are corn earworm, Helicoverpa zea, fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda, maize weevil, Sitophilus zeamais, and brown stink bug, Euschistus servus. In 2006 and 2007, aflatoxin contamination and insect damage were sampled before harvest in three 0.4-hectare corn fields using a grid sampling method. The feeding damage by each of ear/kernel-feeding insects (i.e., corn earworm/fall armyworm damage on the silk/cob, and discoloration of corn kernels by stink bugs), and maize weevil population were assessed at each grid point with five ears. The spatial distribution pattern of aflatoxin contamination was also assessed using the corn samples collected at each sampling point. Aflatoxin level was correlated to the number of maize weevils and stink bug-discolored kernels, but not closely correlated to either husk coverage or corn earworm damage. Contour maps of the maize weevil populations, stink bug-damaged kernels, and aflatoxin levels exhibited an aggregated distribution pattern with a strong edge effect on all three parameters. The separation of silk- and cob-feeding insects from kernel-feeding insects, as well as chewing (i.e., the corn earworm and maize weevil) and piercing-sucking insects (i.e., the stink bugs) and their damage in relation to aflatoxin accumulation is economically important. Both theoretic and applied ramifications of this study were discussed by proposing a hypothesis on the underlying mechanisms of the aggregated distribution patterns and strong edge effect of insect damage and aflatoxin contamination, and by discussing possible management tactics for aflatoxin reduction by proper management of kernel-feeding insects. Future directions on basic and applied research related to aflatoxin contamination are also discussed

Characterizing the Orbital and Dynamical State of the HD 82943 Planetary System with Keck Radial Velocity Data

We present an updated analysis of radial velocity data of the HD 82943 planetary system based on 10 yr of measurements obtained with the Keck telescope. Previous studies have shown that the HD 82943 system has two planets that are likely in 2:1 mean-motion resonance (MMR), with orbital periods about 220 and 440 days. However, alternative fits that are qualitatively different have also been suggested, with two planets in a 1:1 resonance or three planets in a Laplace 4:2:1 resonance. Here we use χ^2 minimization combined with a parameter grid search to investigate the orbital parameters and dynamical states of the qualitatively different types of fits, and we compare the results to those obtained with the differential evolution Markov chain Monte Carlo method. Our results support the coplanar 2:1 MMR configuration for the HD 82943 system, and show no evidence for either the 1:1 or three-planet Laplace resonance fits. The inclination of the system with respect to the sky plane is well constrained at 20^(+4.9)_(-5.5) degrees, and the system contains two planets with masses of about 4.78 M_J and 4.80 M_J (where M_J is the mass of Jupiter) and orbital periods of about 219 and 442 days for the inner and outer planet, respectively. The best fit is dynamically stable with both eccentricity-type resonant angles θ_1 and θ_2 librating around 0°

Marine heatwaves threaten global biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services

The global ocean has warmed substantially over the past century, with far-reaching implications for marine ecosystems 1 . Concurrent with long-term persistent warming, discrete periods of extreme regional ocean warming (marine heatwaves, MHWs) have increased in frequency 2 . Here we quantify trends and attributes of MHWs across all ocean basins and examine their biological impacts from species to ecosystems. Multiple regions in the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans are particularly vulnerable to MHW intensification, due to the co-existence of high levels of biodiversity, a prevalence of species found at their warm range edges or concurrent non-climatic human impacts. The physical attributes of prominent MHWs varied considerably, but all had deleterious impacts across a range of biological processes and taxa, including critical foundation species (corals, seagrasses and kelps). MHWs, which will probably intensify with anthropogenic climate change 3 , are rapidly emerging as forceful agents of disturbance with the capacity to restructure entire ecosystems and disrupt the provision of ecological goods and services in coming decades. © 2019, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited

Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope Coronagraph Instrument Observation Calibration Plan

NASA's next flagship mission, the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope, is a 2.4-meter observatory set to launch no later than May 2027. Roman features two instruments: the Wide Field Imager and the Coronagraph Instrument. Roman's Coronagraph is a Technology Demonstration that will push the current capabilities of direct imaging to smaller contrast ratios ($\sim$10$^{-9}$) and inner-working angles (3~$\lambda$/D). In order to achieve this high precision, Roman Coronagraph data must be calibrated to remove as many potential sources of error as possible. Here we present a detailed overview of the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope Coronagraph Instrument Observation Calibration Plan including identifying potential sources of error and how they will be mitigated via on-sky calibrations.Comment: Posting for public information on the current status of the Roman Coronagraph Observation Calibration Plan; latest updates as of July 29, 202

New genetic loci implicated in fasting glucose homeostasis and their impact on type 2 diabetes risk.

Levels of circulating glucose are tightly regulated. To identify new loci influencing glycemic traits, we performed meta-analyses of 21 genome-wide association studies informative for fasting glucose, fasting insulin and indices of beta-cell function (HOMA-B) and insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) in up to 46,186 nondiabetic participants. Follow-up of 25 loci in up to 76,558 additional subjects identified 16 loci associated with fasting glucose and HOMA-B and two loci associated with fasting insulin and HOMA-IR. These include nine loci newly associated with fasting glucose (in or near ADCY5, MADD, ADRA2A, CRY2, FADS1, GLIS3, SLC2A2, PROX1 and C2CD4B) and one influencing fasting insulin and HOMA-IR (near IGF1). We also demonstrated association of ADCY5, PROX1, GCK, GCKR and DGKB-TMEM195 with type 2 diabetes. Within these loci, likely biological candidate genes influence signal transduction, cell proliferation, development, glucose-sensing and circadian regulation. Our results demonstrate that genetic studies of glycemic traits can identify type 2 diabetes risk loci, as well as loci containing gene variants that are associated with a modest elevation in glucose levels but are not associated with overt diabetes