Recent exports matter: export discoveries, FDI and Growth, an empirical assessment for MENA countries

Export diversification has become a priority goal for the development strategies of the MENA countries. In this paper, we aim at measuring the effects of exports’ diversification on growth in MENA countries. But we also try to assess the way new exports and FDI interact each others in the process of growth. Within the framework of an endogenous growth model, we claim that FDI can act as a complementary factor in the discovery process. The model is estimated by the system-GMM and we provide robust evidence that FDI do not necessarily have the same effect on growth according to the diversification level. We also show that while FDI have a positive and significant effect on the MENA countries’ growth, it is most probably rather linked to the direct effect on value added and employment than to the spillover effects of technological transfer.Export diversification, FDI, Growth, MENA, GMM system

Foreign Direct Investment: a comparative study of the attraction of Moroccan and Tunisian economies (In French)

The existing literature points to a series of determinants of FDI attraction such as the size of markets, the costs of labor, infrastructure, the educational level of the labor force, or policy reforms and political stability … However, potential trade-offs or complementarities between similar countries are rarely underscored as factors explaining the performance or the under-performance in attracting FDI. In this paper we try to determine if there is an inverse (positive) relationship between FDI flows in Tunisia and in Morocco. We test this hypothesis is tested in a VAR model (Vector Autogressive Regression) and we show that FDI in Tunisia attract, in an indirect way, the FDI in Morocco, probably by improving the climate of business in the region. But, meanwhile, Morocco undergoes a significant diversion of FDI in favour of Tunisia in the long run.Foreign direct investment (FDI) ; trade-off, attraction ; Morocco ; Tunisia

Human capital and structural change: how do they interact with each other in growth?

Human capital measures (schooling) are poorly significant in explaining growth for developing countries. An explanation is that increases in human capital have no significant effect on growth if this human capital is misallocated and underemployed. In a simple two-sector model of a small open economy, we show that the effect of education on growth is more significant if the country has entered into the structural change that raises the demand for skilled labour. Moreover, we give a special attention to the role of entrepreneurs in the increase in the demand for skills in the modern sector and propose to measure it through the diversification of exports. We then derive an econometric specification from a simple two-sector model of growth with structural change and different levels of skills. From a sample of emerging economies, we provide econometric evidence that the reduction in the traditional share of GDP and a higher diversification of export both have a positive influence on growth rates. We also show that if the drop in traditional activities is to matter for growth, it is not through the skill reallocation from traditional to modern activities whereas export diversification is a factor of higher growth, directly but also through the enhancement of the effect of human capital on the increase of GDP. Then, the point could be that if reallocation of skills is to matter, it is more probably through shifts among the industrial sector, from the older to the newer activities than across sectors, from the traditional to the modern.Human capital, growth, structural change

FDI Promotion policies and dynamic of growth in the South East Mediterranean countries (In French)

In this paper, we ask if the convergence in policies leads to a convergence in growth dynamics for MENA countries. We first show that FDI promotion policies have been very similar in the South East Mediterranean countries during the last decade. Then, we try to find clubs of convergence in this area through KPSS and ADF models, and show the difficulty of observing such clubs among Mediterranean countries.Planning and Policy ; Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development International ; Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements

Foreign Direct Investment: a comparative study of the attraction of Moroccan and Tunisian economies (In French)

The existing literature points to a series of determinants of FDI attraction such as the size of markets, the costs of labor, infrastructure, the educational level of the labor force, or policy reforms and political stability… However, potential trade-offs or complementarities between similar countries are rarely underscored as factors explaining the performance or the under-performance in attracting FDI. In this paper we try to determine if there is an inverse (positive) relationship between FDI flows in Tunisia and in Morocco. We test this hypothesis is tested in a VAR model (Vector Autogressive Regression) and we show that FDI in Tunisia attract, in an indirect way, the FDI in Morocco, probably by improving the climate of business in the region. But, meanwhile, Morocco undergoes a significant diversion of FDI in favour of Tunisia in the long run.Foreign direct investment (FDI), trade-off, attraction, Morocco, Tunisia

Recent exports matter: export discoveries, FDI and Growth, an empirical assessment for MENA countries

Export diversification has become a priority goal for the development strategies of the MENA countries. In this paper, we aim at measuring the effects of exports’ diversification on growth in MENA countries. But we also try to assess the way new exports and FDI interact each others in the process of growth. Within the framework of an endogenous growth model, we claim that FDI can act as a complementary factor in the discovery process. The model is estimated by the system-GMM and we provide robust evidence that FDI do not necessarily have the same effect on growth according to the diversification level. We also show that while FDI have a positive and significant effect on the MENA countries’ growth, it is most probably rather linked to the direct effect on value added and employment than to the spillover effects of technological transfer.Export diversification, FDI, Growth, MENA, GMM system

FDI and growth: A new look at a still puzzling issue

In this paper, we argue that the inadequacy of their underlying formal model can explain the failure of the existing empirical studies to exhibit a robust and convergent estimation of the effect of FDI on growth. We build a structural model of growth with endogenous attraction to FDI, and we estimate it on panel data for a sample of Middle East and North Africa countries (MENA). Direct effects of FDI on growth are not significant, and we show that FDI is not only responsive to growth, but it is also likely to promote increases of GDP through indirect channels as it spurs the formation of human capital and exports.FDI, growth, attraction, MENA, simultaneous equations

The law of growth and attraction: an endogenous model of absorptive capacities, FDI and income for MENA countries

In this paper, we build a structural model of growth and we estimate it on panel data. We go further than the previous studies of Bende et al. (2000, 2003) or Li & Liu (2005), because we not only control for the endogenity of FDI towards growth, but we also control for the endogenity of FDI towards the other variables (trade openness, domestic investment, human development) that are likely to increase the effects of foreign investments on growth through the absorption capacities building. We show that this model brings in new and interesting results about the interactions between attraction, FDI and growth in MENA countries (Middle East and North Africa countries).FDI, Human capital, Growth, simultaneous equations, MENA

FDI Promotion policies and dynamic of growth in the South East Mediterranean countries (In French)

In this paper, we ask if the convergence in policies leads to a convergence in growth dynamics for MENA countries. We first show that FDI promotion policies have been very similar in the South East Mediterranean countries during the last decade. Then, we try to find clubs of convergence in this area through KPSS and ADF models, and show the difficulty of observing such clubs among Mediterranean countries.Development Planning and Policy, Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development International; Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements

The law of growth and attraction: an endogenous model of absorptive capacities, FDI and income for MENA countries

In this paper, we build a structural model of growth and we estimate it on panel data. We go further than the previous studies of Bende et al. (2000, 2003) or Li & Liu (2005), because we not only control for the endogenity of FDI towards growth, but we also control for the endogenity of FDI towards the other variables (trade openness, domestic investment, human development) that are likely to increase the effects of foreign investments on growth through the absorption capacities building. We show that this model brings in new and interesting results about the interactions between attraction, FDI and growth in MENA countries (Middle East and North Africa countries).FDI, Human capital, Growth, simultaneous equations, MENA