Rice Trade Policies and Their Implications for Food Security

There is a strong linkage between the behavior of the rice market and the state of food security in many regions around the world, particularly in Asia, as made evident in the 2007-08 commodity crisis. Rice is a staple for the majority of the population in Asia, where roughly 60% of the close to one billion undernourished people live (FAO, 2010). As Timmer (2010) states, “it is impossible to improve food security in the short run or long run without providing adequate supplies of rice that are accessible to the poor” (p. 2). The rice crisis of 2007-08 showed the crucial role of export and import policies on the behavior of the rice market and its consequences for price stability and food security. Market fundamentals could only explain a minimal part of the skyrocketing increase in rice prices observed (Dawe, 2010). The overarching objective of this study is to assess the impact of international rice trade policies on the patterns of production, consumption, trade, and prices, from an ex-post and ex-ante perspective, and analyze the implications of these policies from a food-security point of view. The RICEFLOW model (Durand-Morat and Wailes, 2010) is used for the assessment. RICEFLOW is a spatial partial equilibrium model of the global rice economy in which the behavior of producers and consumers are specified according to neoclassical economic theory (profit and utility maximizers, respectively). Domestic production and imports are specified as imperfect substitutes following Armington (1969). The model is calibrated to calendar year 2008, the latest available year for which the RICEFLOW database is available. The 2008 RICEFLOW database is disaggregated into 65 country/regions, including the largest producers and traders of rice, and 9 rice commodities defined on two dimensions, (1) milling degrees (paddy, brown, and milled), and (2) type (long grain, medium & short grain, and fragrant). Given the crucial importance of the Armington elasticities and the lack of good estimates on these parameters, systematic sensitivity analysis is conducted on the best available estimates to generate stochastic distributions of the endogenous variables with respect to these behavioral parameters. Results are decomposed in two dimensions, namely, (1) trade policy groups, and (2) countries, to obtain a better idea of the partial effect of policies and or countries applying them. Achieving food security implies guaranteeing access (physical availability and affordability) to safe and nutritious food to the entire population. Improving food security is the key goal of the World Food Summit of 1996 and the first Millennium Development Goal. Food security assessments have traditionally been done either at the macro level (market stability) or micro level (household access). Although the methodology used in this study constrains us to focus on the macro level, it can contribute to an improved understanding of trade policy for regional and global rice supply and, thus, for improved market stability.rice, trade, policies, food security, Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Security and Poverty, International Relations/Trade, F13, Q17, Q18,

Sensitive Product Designation in the Doha Round: The Case of Rice

Effects of sensitive product designation in WTO trade reform on the international rice market are analyzed. General and partial equilibrium frameworks are used. Results suggest large impacts. Among exporters, China and the U.S., major suppliers of the Japanese and South Korean markets, are most negatively affected.Crop Production/Industries,

General and partial equilibrium analysis of the impact of the Central America Free Trade Agreement on the U.S. rice sector

The market conditions proposed by CAFTA are likely to positively impact the U.S. rice sector. Despite the differences in the impact of the agreement, both analytical approaches, namely, partial and general equilibrium modeling, yield results in the same direction. The small difference in the results from both approaches suggests low income and cross-sectoral effects between the U.S. rice sector and other segments of the economy. U.S. rice production is likely to expand to meet an increasing international demand for this commodity. The U.S. rice milling industry should also expect benefits from CAFTA, expanding by 1 percent in the general equilibrium model and up to 8 percent in the partial equilibrium framework.International Relations/Trade,

Sensitive Product Treatment in Agricultural Trade Negotiations

The fact that trade, and especially agricultural trade, remains far from free is puzzling, since the superiority of free trade receives overwhelming support among economists (Gawande and Krishna, 2003; Rodrik, 1994). International trade scholars have devoted significant resources to forecasting the impact of trade policy reforms (for a survey of these studies see Congressional Budget Office, 2005), and their findings are relevant inputs for officials negotiating a trade agreement as well as for politicians in charge of ratifying it. The perceived gains and losses attached to different outcomes have been identified as a significant factor shifting the outcome of a trade agreement negotiation (McMillan, 1990). Less well-known are the factors that would impact the result of a negotiation round involving agriculture. While political scientists have devoted significant resources and developed numerous theories to explain the pattern of bargaining outcomes, the number of empirical assessments remains limited. Among the factors to blame for the low number of empirical evaluations is the scarcity of information regarding negotiation strategies and outcomes (Odell, 2002). The lack of research in this area is puzzling, since countries negotiating regionally and multilaterally have many times struggled to satisfactorily conclude negotiations due to a lack of consensus on agriculture. The potential gains that a reduction in agricultural protection worldwide could generate, and the limited knowledge on the ways negotiation outcomes can be affected, are the main motivations for this study. As stated by Hoekman and Anderson (1999) in reference to reaching an agreement on agriculture in the current WTO Doha Round of negotiations, “The potential gains from liberalization are large”, but “Getting there is another matter” (p. 175). This study focuses on U.S. trade negotiations with Western Hemisphere countries, with particular attention to sensitive agricultural products, about which the most heated bargaining occurs. Arguably as a consequence of the lack of progress at the multilateral arena, the U.S. has embarked on bilateral trade negotiations with several countries, but with a particular emphasis with Western Hemisphere partners. Thus, over the last 10 years it has ratified trade agreements with Chile, Peru, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua (the last six as part of the DR-CAFTA Agreement), and signed but not yet ratified agreements with Colombia and Panama. Following Trefler (1993), a simultaneous equation model is developed to estimate the correlation between the change in market access (ΔMA) as a result of free trade negotiations, and a number of political economy (PA) and negotiation context (NC) variables suggested by the endogenous tariff theory to be associated with the level of protection granted to a sector. The change in market access in the context of this study is represented by changes in import tariffs and tariff-rate-quotas negotiated as part of the preferential trade agreements (PTAs). While we acknowledge the increasing importance of non-tariff barriers (other than TRQs) as a way to afford protection from imports, PTAs usually do not include specific outcomes on NTBs, and therefore gauging the change in NTBs resulting from a PTA is not possible. Negotiation process variables (NP) primarily bargaining strategies, are seen by many scholars as important intervening variables to explain the pattern of market access achieved in bargaining. By focusing on sensitive agricultural products, this study controls for (NP) variables, since negotiations on sensitive agricultural products between the U.S. and its developing Western Hemisphere partners are assumed to have entailed the use of strong bargaining strategies on both sides. Political economy variables subject to be used are economic size, concentration ratios, import penetration ratios and their change, capital/labor ratios, and sectoral to total labor ratios, all argued to be positively related to the level of protection granted to a sector. Among feasible negotiation context variables are relative power of nations, foreign direct investment in the partner’s economy, unemployment rate, and tax structure (dependence on import policies as a source of revenues). The level of imports (IMP) is modeled to be a function of comparative advantage variables (CA) and the change in market access ΔMA. ΔMA = f(PA, NC NP) IMP = f(CA, ΔMA) The findings from the quantitative assessment are to be complemented with findings from selected case studies, thus expanding our understanding of the factors affecting the outcome of the bargaining activity over sensitive agricultural products in the context of preferential trade agreements.trade negotiations, agricultural trade, free trade agreements, political economy, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, Political Economy, F59, Q17,

HYBRID RICE AND ITS IMPACT ON FOOD SECURITY AND THE PATTERN OF GLOBAL PRODUCTION AND TRADE

The hybrid rice technology is one of the many ways in which productivity of scarce resources devoted to rice production could be enhanced, with the consequent alleviation of food insecurity. The findings of this study show that the hybrid rice technology has so far made some sizable contributions to per-capita availability of rice in adopting countries with marginal spillover effects to other regions. However, at forecasted population growths, a massive intensification of adoption would be needed to maintain per-capita availability of rice at baseline levels. But even with adoption rates climbing significantly, much higher equilibrium prices are expected, which will represent a challenge for the hungry in many parts of the world. While hybrid rice has the potential to contribute significantly to improve production and food security, more efforts are needed to improve the productivity of the constraining production resources.hybrid rice, food security, technology change, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Security and Poverty, International Relations/Trade, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Q16, Q55,

Simulating the long term impact of nitrate mitigation scenarios in apilot study basin

The agro-hydrological model TNT2 was used to explore for a period of 14 years (1987–2001) the likelyconsequences of mitigation scenarios on nitrate contamination of the stream water in a small agriculturalcatchment. The Best Management Practices (BMPs) historically designed and implemented in 1992 andtwo devised agricultural scenarios (catch crop (CC) implementation and a global reduction of N fertilizer)are evaluated in term of nitrate contamination in the environment. Two of the BMPs consist in imple-menting natural strips of Poplar and rye-grass strips (5 meters large) along stream and ditches and thethird is a delay in the burial of wheat straws (from August to October). Simulations indicated that naturalstrips implementation would lead to a slight decrease of Nitrate Fluxes (NF) in river by respectively 3.3%and 6.6% for rye-grass and poplar strips: a benefit associated to the non fertilization of strips area. Denitri-fication has not been particularly disrupted in such areas. The delay in the burial of wheat straw in autumndecreases annual mineralization rate and annual plant uptake (by respectively 9 and 13 kg N ha−1y−1)but increases denitrification fluxes by 6 kg N ha−1y−1. This would lead to a slight decrease by 6% of NFin stream (equivalent to 3.3 mg NO3−l−1) and an average decrease of the following sunflower yield by27%. The global reduction of fertilization by 10% would decreased NF in stream by 13.8% (equivalent to8 mg NO3−l−1), with a global decrease by 8 kg N ha−1y−1of plant uptake. The cumulative effect of BMPsand CC would have together lead to a decrease of nitrate concentration from 57.5 to 46.6 mg NO3−l−1reaching the UE environmental quality objectives (below 50 mg NO3−l−1). Spring crops yield followingCC would have been penalized and the decrease of NF is balanced by an increase of denitrification fluxesin the environment contributing to release of N2O, a greenhouse gas, into the atmosphere

La culture en action des enseignants

International audienceDans une perspective d'action située, cet article propose une analyse de la cognition et de la culture en action des enseignants. La première partie porte sur les processus d'actualisation et de construction des connaissances dans l'action ; la deuxième sur les relations en apparence contradictoires entre le caractère singulier des actions en classe et la possibilité d'une culture partagée ; la troisième sur les processus de transmission au sein de cette communauté des pratiques enseignantes

Long term nitrogen budget modelling in a small agricultural watershed: hydrological control assessment of nitrogen losses with semi-distributed (SWAT) and distributed (TNT2) models

Nitrogen exports in catchments are known to be greatly variable because nitrogen cycle in watershed is controlled by different factors such as landuse, farm management practices, climate, soil type and hydrological setting. Our aim is to study the relative importance of the processes controlling nitrogen losses at catchment scale in the long term using a modelling approach constrained by a long term record of observations. The study area is a catchment of 330 ha with 95 % of intensive agriculture in a hilly shallow soil context, in the south west of France. Historical field rotation and nitrogen river load data have been collected for a 20 year period. Two process-based and spatially distributed models have been chosen to simulate nitrogen transfer and transformation in the whole catchment. The first one is the fully distributed TNT2 model, developed and validated in a different context (farming systems in north-western France). The second one is the widely used, semi-distributed SWAT model, used and recognizedto be realistic in many studies on nitrogen transfer in river. This comparative modelling approach was used to evaluate the effect of different modelling approaches on the identification of controlling factors, and the ability of both models to simulate alternative scenarios. The discharge, especially during storm flow, is well simulated by the curve number approach and the semi-distributed hydrological parameter description used SWAT, while the Topmodel-derived approach used in TNT2 tends to underestimate some peak discharges. Nitrogen dynamic simulations are considered to be acceptable for both models for a long time period but the use of both models allows to exhibit their respective capacity and limits. TNT2 has higher potentiality to test the impact of complex agricultural scenarios because the description of management practices and the simulation of crops to management options is more detailed. It permits the assessment of spatial interactions and focussed spatial management, like the set up of grass or tree strips. SWAT can then be used to scale up change scenarios from TNT2 small catchment results to large catchments