The Independence Axiom and Asset Returns

This paper integrates models of atemporal risk preference that relax the independence axiom into a recursive intertemporal asset-pricing framework. The resulting models are amenable to empirical analysis using market data and standard Euler equation methods. We are thereby able to provide the first non-laboratory-based evidence regarding the usefulness of several new theories of risk preference for addressing standard problems in dynamic economics. Using both stock and bond returns data, we find that a model incorporating risk preferences that exhibit firstorder risk aversion accounts for significantly more of the mean and autocorrelation properties of the data than models that exhibit only second-order risk aversion. Unlike the latter class of models which require parameter estimates that are outside of the admissible parameter space, e.g., negative rates of time preference, the model with first-order risk aversion generates point estimates that are economically meaningful. We also examine the relationship between first-order risk aversion and models that employ exogenous stochastic switching processes for consumption growth.

Financial innovation and its implications for monetary policy in South Africa

Financial innovation is a process that is not fully understood because of ~ts nebulous nature and the difficulties in determining its causes and effects. The pace of financial innovation has increased rapidly in recent years. With this increased level of new financial instruments and processes has also come the realisation that financial innovation may well influence the successful application of monetary policy. Under certain circumstances monetary policy may hampered or may be rendered ineffective by financial innovation. This dissertation examines the nature and causes of financial innovation and its implication for the successful application of monetary policy both internationally and in South Africa.EconomicsM. Com (Economics

949-101 Circadian Variation of Ventricular Arrhythmias is Abolished by Propranolol

A prospective study investigated whether there is a circadian variation of ventricular arrhythmias in elderly patients (pts) with heart disease before and after propranolol and no antiarrhythmic (AA) drug. Follow-up 24-hour ambulatory electrocardiograms were obtained at a median of 6 months (range 2 to 12) in 221 elderly pts. mean age 81±8 years. with heart disease (64% with prior myocardial infarction and 36% with hypertensive heart disease) and complex ventricular arrhythmias randomized to propranolol 85±28 mg daily (112 pts) or to no AA drug (109 pts). The average number of premature ventricular complexes (PVCs)/hourwas reduced >70% in 80 of 112 pts (71%) treated with propranolol and in 27 of 109 pts (25%) treated with no AA drug (p < 0.001). Double harmonic regression models showed a significant circadian variation of the maximal number of PVCs before no AA drug (p=0.002, R2=57%, adjusted R2=49%). after no AA drug (p < 0.0001. R2=76%. adjusted R2=71%). and before propranolol (p=0.002, R2=57%, adjusted R2=48%). but not after propranolol (p=0.073. R2=35%, adjusted R2=21%). The primary peak incidence of PVCs in pts before and after no AA drug and before propranolol occurred between 7 a.m. and 12 p.m. The secondary peak incidence of PVCs in pts before and after no AA drug occurred between 6 p.m. and 9 p.m. The secondary peak incidence of PVCs in pts before propranolol occurred between 7 p.m. and 8 p.m. These data show that there is a circadian variation of the maximal number of PVCs in elderly pts with heart disease which is abolished by propranolol

Graphics for relatedness research

Studies of relatedness have been crucial in molecular ecology over the last decades. Good evidence of this is the fact that studies of population structure, evolution of social behaviours, genetic diversity and quantitative genetics all involve relatedness research. The main aim of this article is to review the most common graphical methods used in allele sharing studies for detecting and identifying family relationships. Both IBS and IBD based allele sharing studies are considered. Furthermore, we propose two additional graphical methods from the field of compositional data analysis: the ternary diagram and scatterplots of isometric log-ratios of IBS and IBD probabilities. We illustrate all graphical tools with genetic data from the HGDP-CEPH diversity panel, using mainly 377 microsatellites genotyped for 25 individuals from the Maya population of this panel. We enhance all graphics with convex hulls obtained by simulation and use these to confirm the documented relationships. The proposed compositional graphics are shown to be useful in relatedness research, as they also single out the most prominent related pairs. The ternary diagram is advocated for its ability to display all three allele sharing probabilities simultaneously. The log-ratio plots are advocated as an attempt to overcome the problems with the Euclidean distance interpretation in the classical graphics.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version