The effects of near wins and near losses on self-perceived personal luck and subsequent gambling behavior

Reprinted from Journal of Experimental Social Psychology with permission from Elsevier.Which person would be most likely to continue gambling? A person who has just experienced a big win or a person who has just experienced a big loss? The answer appears often to be whichever gambler feels personally luckier. Two experiments investigated how perceptions of luck, understood as a personal quality, are affected by near, but unrealized outcomes during a game of chance. In Experiment 1, a near big loss at a gambling game heightened perceptions of personal luck relative to a near big win, even though all participants actually won the same modest amount. In addition, participants who experienced a near big loss generated significantly more downward counterfactuals than did those participants in the near big win condition. Most importantly, differences in self-perceived luck influenced future gambling behavior. Participants who experienced a near big loss on a wheel-of-fortune wagered significantly more on the outcome of a subsequent game of roulette than did those participants who experienced a near big win. Experiment 2 extended these results by testing the possible influence of a different type of near outcome and by including a control group. The discussion focuses on the emerging picture of how people understand luck. © 2002 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.The research was supported in part by a Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada Doctoral Fellowship (#752- 2000-1333) to the first author, a research grant from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (#410-92-0464) to the second author, and a research grant from the Alberta Gaming Research Institute to both authors

The deployment of personal luck: Illusory control in games of pure chance

This article may not exactly replicate the final version published in Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin. It is not the copy of record. The official version of scholarly record is accessible from http://psp.sagepub.com/In three studies, the authors expand on Langer’s (1975) illusion of control model to include perceptions of personal luck as a potential source of misperceived skillful influence over non-controllable events. In an initial study, it was predicted and found that having choice in a game of chance heightened both perceived personal luck and perceived chance of winning. In additional studies, hypotheses were tested based on the proposition that luck perceived as a personal quality follows the laws of sympathetic magic. The results showed that participants acted as though luck could be transmitted from themselves to a wheel of fortune and thereby positively affect their perceived chance of winning. Results are discussed both in terms of the previously unexamined connection between illusory control and beliefs in sympathetic magic and as an extension of the illusory control model.The research was supported in part by a Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada Doctoral Fellowship (No. 752-2000-1333) to the first author, a research grant from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (#410-92-0464) to the second author, and a research grant from the Alberta Gaming Research Institute to both authors