Another look at the Regression Discontinuity Design

The attractiveness of the Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) rests on its similarity to an experimental design. On the other hand, it is of limited applicability since rarely assignment to the treatment is based on known pre-program measures. Besides, it only allows to identify the mean impact on a very specific sub-population. Here we show that the RDD generalizes to the instances in which eligibility is established on a pre-program measure and eligible individuals are allowed to self-select into the program. This set-up is also convenient to test the validity of conventional non-experimental estimators of the mean impact.program evaluation, second control group, specification tests

Another look at the regression discontinuity design

The attractiveness of the Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) in its sharp formulation rests on close similarities with a formal experimental design. On the other hand, it is of limited applicability since rarely individuals are assigned to the treatment group on the basis of a pre-program measure observable to the analyst. Besides, it only allows to identify the mean impact of the program for a very specific sub-population of individuals. In this paper we show that the sharp RDD straightforwardly generalizes to the instances in which the eligibility for the program is established with respect to an observable pre-program measure with eligible individuals self-selecting into the treatment group according to an unknown process. This set-up also turns out very convenient to define a specification test on conventional non-experimental estimators of the program effect needed to identify the mean impact away from the threshold for eligibility. Data requirements are made explicit.

The Effect of Extending the Duration of Eligibility in an Italian Labour Market Programme for Dismissed Workers

Liste di mobilità (LM) is an Italian labour market programme targeted to dismissed workers. There is a ‘passive’ component granting monetary benefits to employees dismissed by firms larger than 15 employees, and an ‘active’ component providing an employment subsidy to any firm hiring workers from the LM. Eligibility duration varies with the worker’s age at dismissal. We exploit the variability of these provisions to evaluate the impact of extending the duration of eligibility on re-employment probabilities and wages over the 36 months subsequent to enrolment in the programme. The average treatment effect is identified via a Regression Discontinuity Design. A major negative impact emerges for workers aged 50 or more granted the monetary benefit.active labour market policies, regression discontinuity design

The persistence of poverty: true state dependence or unobserved heterogeneity? Some evidence from the Italian Survey on Household Income and Wealth

Evidence from several countries is that any household experiencing poverty today is much more likely to experience it again, which may be due to both unobserved heterogeneity (UH) and true state dependence (TSD). We point out that in this context there are two sources of UH: (1) the household ability to obtain income at a specific time period and (2) the way in which this ability evolves from that time period onwards. We test for TSD using a panel from Italy. After testing for the ignorability of the massive attrition plaguing the panel and accepting it, we do not find any sign of TSD.Attrition ignorability, Discrete response panel data models, Poverty dynamics

Choosing among alternative classification criteria to measure the labour force state

Current labour force counting relies on general guidelines set by the International Labour Office(ILO) to classify individuals into three labour force states: employment, unemployment and in activity. However, the resulting statistics areknown to be sensitive to slight variations of operational definitions prima facie consistent with the general guidelines. In this paper two alternative classification criteria are considered: a 'strict' criterion followed by Eurostat, which results from a stringent interpretation of the ILO guidelines, and a 'mild' criterion followed by the Italian Statistical Office up to 1992. We first show that the labour force statistics resulting from the two classification criteria differ considerably. We then discuss the relative merits of the two criteria by comparing those individuals whose classification depends on the criterion adopted to individuals whose classification is common across criteria. Similarities are established with respect to characteristics known to be relevant to the labour force state to assess which benchmark group individuals whose state is questionable look like the most. An application is presented to samples of married women from the Italian Labour Force Survey from five survey occasions between 1984 and 2000. Results are neatly in favour of the 'mild' criterion and are rather robust to changes in the business cycle, the participation rate, local labour market conditions and the questionnaire design.ILO classification, Mixture Models, Unemployment

Measuring the impact of the Italian CFL programme on the job opportunities for the youths

The CFL programme has been introduced in 1985 to improve the youths occupational chances. It provides the employers some incentive to recruit young workers by reducing both the labour and the firing costs relative to those they would bear by recruiting older workers. Following the literature, the expected impact of the programme is to increase the eligibles chance to work during the eligibility period as well as to improve their chance to work after the eligibility period thanks to the longer work experience obtained during the eligibility period. A substitution effect might emerge since as subjects get out of eligibility employers might find convenient to replace them by younger still eligible workers. To measure the impact of the programme we exploit the variation over time and across geographical areas of the incentive to hire eligible workers induced by several reforms of the programme as well as its interaction with other incentive schemes.targeted wage subsidy, firing costs, substitution effect

College Cost and Time to Complete a Degree: Evidence from Tuition Discontinuities

Many students enrolled in academic programs around the world take longer to obtain a degree than the normal completion time while college tuition is typically constant during the years of enrollment. In particular, it does not increase when a student remains in a program beyond the normal completion time. Using a Regression Discontinuity Design on data from Bocconi University in Italy, this paper shows that an increase of 1,000 euro in the continuation tuition reduces the probability of late graduation by at least 6.1 percentage points with respect to a benchmark average probability of 80%. We conclude suggesting that an increase in continuation tuition is efficient when effort is suboptimally supplied, for instance in the presence of public subsidies to education, congestion externalities and/or peer effects.

The effect of extending the duration of eligibility in an Italian labour market programme for dismissed workers

Liste di mobilità (LM) is an Italian labour market programme targeted to dismissed workers. There is a passive component granting monetary benefits to employees dismissed by firms larger than 15 employees, and an active component providing an employment subsidy to any firm hiring workers from the LM. Eligibility duration varies with the worker's age at dismissal. We exploit the variability of these provisions to evaluate the impact of extending the duration of eligibility on re-employment probabilities and wages over the 36 months subsequent to enrolment in the programme. The average treatment effect is identified via a Regression Discontinuity Design. A major negative impact emerges for workers aged 50 or more granted the monetary benefit

The chips are down: The influence of family on children's trust formation

Understanding the formation of trust at the individual level is a key issue given the impact that it has been recognized to have on economic development. Theoretical work highlights the role of the transmission of values such as trust from parents to their children. Attempts to empirically measure the strength of this transmission relied so far on the cross-sectional regression of the trust of children on the contemporaneous trust of their parents. We introduce a new identification strategy which hinges on a panel of parents and their children drawn from the German Socio-Economic Panel. Our results show that: 1) a half to two thirds of the observed variability of trust is pure noise irrelevant to the ransmission process; 2)this noise strongly biases the parameter estimates of the OLS regression of children's trust on parents' trust; however an instrumental variable procedure straightforwardly emerges from the analysis; 3) the dynamics of the component of trust relevant to the transmission process shed light on the structural interpretation of the parameters of this regression; 4) the strength of the flow of trust that parents pass to their children as well as of the sibling correlations due to other factors are easily summarized by the conventional R2 of a latent equation. In our sample, approximately one fourth of the variability of children's trust is inherited from their parents while two thirds are attributable to the residual sibling correlation

The effect of extending the duration of eligibility in an Italian labour market programme for dismissed workers

Liste di mobilità (LM) is an Italian labour market programme targeted to dismissed workers. It combines a 'passive' component granting monetary benefits to employees dismissed by firms larger than 15 employees, and an 'active' component providing an employment subsidy to any firm hiring workers from the LM. Eligibility duration varies with the worker's age at dismissal. Using a new linked administrative panel data set for an Italian region, we exploit the variability of these provisions to evaluate the impact of extending the duration of eligibility on re-employment probabilities and wages over the 36 months subsequent to enrolment in the programme. The average treatment effect is identified via a Regression Discontinuity Design. We validate the design by a set of overidentification tests. For most of the sub-groups we analyse, we find that a longer eligibility period has no impact on re-employment rates. A negative impact emerges for women entitled to monetary benefits at the end of the second year of eligibility, but it disappears one year later. A major negative impact emerges for workers aged 50 or more granted the monetary benefits; it is most likely due to the fact that they can use the LM as a bridge to retirement