Warfare, Fiscal Capacity, and Performance

We exploit differences in casualties sustained in pre-modern wars to estimate the impact of fiscal capacity on economic performance. In the past, states fought different amounts of external conflicts, of various lengths and magnitudes. To raise the revenues to wage wars, states made fiscal innovations, which persisted and helped to shape current fiscal institutions. Economic historians claim that greater fiscal capacity was the key long-run institutional change brought about by historical conflicts. Using casualties sustained in pre-modern wars to instrument for current fiscal institutions, we estimate substantial impacts of fiscal capacity on GDP per worker. The results are robust to a broad range of specifications, controls, and sub-samples

From Moscow with love

One of the less researched aspects of postcolonial India’s “progressive” culture is its Soviet connection. Starting in the 1950s and consolidating in the 1960s, the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics invested in building up “committed” networks amongst writers, directors, actors, and other theater- and film-practitioners across India. Thus, an entire generation of cultural professionals was initiated into the anticolonial solidarity of emerging Afro-Asian nations that were seen, and portrayed, by the Soviets as being victims of “Western” imperialism. The aspirational figure of the New Soviet Man was celebrated through the rise of a new form of “transactional sociality” (Westlund 2003). This paper looks at selected cases of cultural diplomacy—through the lens of cultural history—between the USSR and India for two decades after India’s Independence, exploring the possibility of theorizing it from the perspective of an anticolonial cultural solidarity that allowed agency to Indian interlocutors

Structural Change and the Fall of Income Inequality in Latin America : Agricultural Development, Inter-sectoral Duality, and the Kuznets Curve

In this study we approach the recent decline in income inequality in Latin America from the perspective of structural change with a focus on the relative performance of the agricultural sector. Our focus is on the underlying forces implied by Kuznets (1965). We zoom in on the relative performance of agriculture in the development process and the rural-urban duality and pay particular attention to the last couple of decades in relation to the entire post-1950 period. We attempt to estimate empirically possible theoretical relations with regard to these patterns by posing the following basic questions: how does the resurgence of agriculture relate to the reduction of income inequality and to what extent is this an expression of Latin America moving downward on the Kuznets curve? The literature on agriculture’s relation to the recent changes of income distribution in Latin America is quite limited. For instance, in a recent ECLAC report titled “Structural change for equality” (2012), the role of agriculture is not even mentioned. By agriculture we mean both farming and agro-business that processes and transports that output. To our knowledge, this paper is the first attempt to investigate this relationship for the recent decades in the perspective of structural change in Latin America. There are strong theoretical reasons to connect agricultural development to income distribution. The closing of the rural-urban income gap reflects what Reynolds (1975) called a “dynamic” transformation of agriculture and relates to the contribution agriculture provides for overall growth of the economy. In addition, the elasticity of poverty reduction with respect to growth is estimated to be stronger when growth emanates in the agricultural sector (Ravallion and Chen 2007, de Janvry and Sadoulet 2009). Productivity growth in the lagging sector should also contribute to sectoral labor productivity to convergence and thus helps to reduce inequality (Timmer 1988). For these reasons, the resurgence of agriculture driven partly by improving commodity prices should be given due attention when assessing the decline in income inequality in Latin America. According to the logic of the Kuznets curve, the hypothesized “turning point” of the inverted U-curve is generated by a reduction of income inequality in one or both of the sectors and/or a reduction of the rural-urban income gap as the weight of the agricultural sector diminishes, and the income per capita gap between them declines. We find that the recent decline in income inequality is related to the recent resurgence of Latin American agriculture, and, by inference, its lack of decline across most of the 20th century must be related to a lack of productivity change in agriculture. We provide estimates showing that during the recent decades inter-sectoral duality has been reduced by agricultural productivity growth. The duality expressed as an inter-sectoral Gini shows the shape of an inverted U-curve and as such the closing of the rural-urban income gap corroborates with the theoretical expectations postulated by Kuznets. The wider implication of the study is, however, that with slower growth in agricultural labor productivity, continuing improvement in the income distribution becomes more difficult. In the absence of strong manufacturing growth, agriculture might be able to reduce income inequality further if agro-industries remain unskilled labor intensive, thus raising the opportunity cost of unskilled workers. On the other hand, the traditional service sector has perhaps become the “new agricultural sector” in terms of productivity and labor surplus. In other words, the source of the remaining dualism does not come only from rural areas, but also from urban areas

A Systematic Meta-Analysis of Genetic Association Studies for Diabetic Retinopathy

OBJECTIVE: Diabetic retinopathy is a sight-threatening microvascular complication of diabetes with a complex multifactorial pathogenesis. A systematic meta-analysis was undertaken to collectively assess genetic studies and determine which previously investigated polymorphisms are associated with diabetic retinopathy. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: All studies investigating the association of genetic variants with the development of diabetic retinopathy were identified in PubMed and ISI Web of Knowledge. Crude odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs were calculated for single nucleotide polymorphisms and microsatellite markers previously investigated in at least two published studies. RESULTS: Twenty genes and 34 variants have previously been studied in multiple cohorts. The aldose reductase (AKR1B1) gene was found to have the largest number of polymorphisms significantly associated with diabetic retinopathy. The z-2 microsatellite was found to confer risk (OR 2.33 [95% CI 1.49-3.64], P = 2 x 10(-4)) in type 1 and type 2 diabetes and z+2 to confer protection (0.58 [0.36-0.93], P = 0.02) against diabetic retinopathy in type 2 diabetes regardless of ethnicity. The T allele of the AKR1B1 promoter rs759853 variant is also significantly protective against diabetic retinopathy in type 1 diabetes (0.5 [0.35-0.71], P = 1.00 x 10(-4)), regardless of ethnicity. These associations were also found in the white population alone (P < 0.05). Polymorphisms in NOS3, VEGF, ITGA2, and ICAM1 are also associated with diabetic retinopathy after meta-analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Variations within the AKR1B1 gene are highly significantly associated with diabetic retinopathy development irrespective of ethnicity. Identification of genetic risk factors in diabetic retinopathy will assist in further understanding of this complex and debilitating diabetes complication

Inequality, Democracy, and Persistence: Is There a Political Kuznets Curve?

The aim of this paper is to provide comprehensive empirical evidence on recent theories that link democracy and income inequality for the period 1960-1995. In simple cross-country regressions I find a non-monotonic link between these two variables when using ordinary least squares, instrumental variables, and Eusufzai tests. Since these results cannot be taken as true time series findings, even though recent theories that explain such a link are, I also employ recent methods applied to dynamic models on panel data. These techniques allow accounting for potential simultaneity and heterogeneity problems. Using the preferred econometric methodology, I also find support for the existence of a political Kuznets curve. Moreover, it appears that income inequality is unconditionally persistent. Results hold for two different democracy proxies and when sensitivity analysis is applied