A cohort study of the service-users of online contraception.

BACKGROUND: In January 2017, the first free service providing oral contraceptive pills (OCPs) ordered online and posted home became available in the London boroughs of Lambeth and Southwark - ethnically and socioeconomically diverse areas with high rates of unplanned pregnancy. There are concerns that online services can increase health inequalities; therefore, we aimed to describe service-users according to age, ethnicity and Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) quintile of area of residence and to examine the association of these with repeated use. METHODS: We analysed routinely collected data from January 2017 to April 2018 and described service-users using available sociodemographic factors and information on patterns of use. Logistic regression analysis examined factors associated with repeat ordering of OCPs. RESULTS: The service was accessed by 726 individuals; most aged between 20 and 29 years (72.5%); self-identified as being of white ethnic group (58.8%); and residents of the first and second most deprived IMD quintiles (79.2%). Compared with those of white ethnic group, those of black ethnic group were significantly less likely to make repeat orders (adjusted OR 0.53, 95% CI 0.31 to 0.89; p=0.001), as were those of Asian and mixed ethnic groups. CONCLUSIONS: These are the first empirical findings on free, online contraception and suggest that early adopters broadly reflect the population of the local area in terms of ethnic diversity and deprivation as measured by IMD. Ongoing service development should prioritise the identification and removal of barriers which may inhibit repeat use for black and minority ethnic groups

Contraception in Person-Contraception Online (CiP-CO) cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Online contraception services increasingly provide information, clinical assessment and home-delivered oral contraceptives (OCs). Evidence is lacking on the effects of online contraceptive service use on short-term contraceptive continuation. METHODS: Cohort study comparing contraceptive continuation between new users of a free-to-access online OC service in South East London with those from other, face-to-face services in the same area. Online questionnaires collected data on participants' sociodemographic characteristics, motivations for OC access, service ratings, OC knowledge and contraceptive use. Contraceptive use in the 4-month study period was measured using health service records. Unadjusted and multivariable logistic regression models compared outcomes between the online service group and those using other services. RESULTS: Online service-users (n=138) were more likely to experience short-term continuation of OCs compared with participants using other services (n=98) after adjusting for sociodemographic and other characteristics (adjusted OR 2.94, 95% CI 1.52 to 5.70). Online service-users rated their service more highly (mean 25.22, SD 3.77) than the other services group (mean 22.70, SD 4.35; p<0.001), valuing convenience and speed of access. Among progestogen-only pill users, knowledge scores were higher for the online group (mean 4.83, SD 1.90) than the other services group (mean 3.87, SD 1.73; p=0.007). Among combined oral contraceptive users, knowledge scores were similar between groups. CONCLUSIONS: Free-to-access, online contraception has the potential to improve short-term continuation of OCs. Further research using a larger study population and analysis of longer-term outcomes are required to understand the impact of online services on unintended pregnancy

Probability of sepsis after infection consultations in primary care in the United Kingdom in 2002-17:population-based cohort study and decision analytic model

BackgroundEfforts to reduce unnecessary antibiotic prescribing have coincided with increasing awareness of sepsis. We aimed to estimate the probability of sepsis following infection consultations in primary care when antibiotics were or were not prescribed.Methods and findingsWe conducted a cohort study including all registered patients at 706 general practices in the United Kingdom Clinical Practice Research Datalink, with 66.2 million person-years of follow-up from 2002 to 2017. There were 35,244 first episodes of sepsis (17,886, 51%, female; median age 71 years, interquartile range 57-82 years). Consultations for respiratory tract infection (RTI), skin or urinary tract infection (UTI), and antibiotic prescriptions were exposures. A Bayesian decision tree was used to estimate the probability (95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]) of sepsis following an infection consultation. Age, gender, and frailty were evaluated as association modifiers. The probability of sepsis was lower if an antibiotic was prescribed, but the number of antibiotic prescriptions required to prevent one episode of sepsis (number needed to treat [NNT]) decreased with age. At 0-4 years old, the NNT was 29,773 (95% UI 18,458-71,091) in boys and 27,014 (16,739-65,709) in girls; over 85 years old, NNT was 262 (236-293) in men and 385 (352-421) in women. Frailty was associated with greater risk of sepsis and lower NNT. For severely frail patients aged 55-64 years, the NNT was 247 (156-459) in men and 343 (234-556) in women. At all ages, the probability of sepsis was greatest for UTI, followed by skin infection, followed by RTI. At 65-74 years, the NNT following RTI was 1,257 (1,112-1,434) in men and 2,278 (1,966-2,686) in women; the NNT following skin infection was 503 (398-646) in men and 784 (602-1,051) in women; following UTI, the NNT was 121 (102-145) in men and 284 (241-342) in women. NNT values were generally smaller for the period from 2014 to 2017, when sepsis was diagnosed more frequently. Lack of random allocation to antibiotic therapy might have biased estimates; patients may sometimes experience sepsis or receive antibiotic prescriptions without these being recorded in primary care; recording of sepsis has increased over the study period.ConclusionsThese stratified estimates of risk help to identify groups in which antibiotic prescribing may be more safely reduced. Risks of sepsis and benefits of antibiotics are more substantial among older adults, persons with more advanced frailty, or following UTIs

Sepsis recording in primary care electronic health records, linked hospital episodes and mortality records: Population-based cohort study in England.

BackgroundSepsis is a growing concern for health systems, but the epidemiology of sepsis is poorly characterised. We evaluated sepsis recording across primary care electronic records, hospital episodes and mortality registrations.Methods and findingsCohort study including 378 general practices in England from Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) GOLD database from 2002-2017 with 36,209,676 patient-years of follow-up with linked Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) and Office for National Statistics (ONS) mortality registrations. Incident sepsis episodes were identified for each source. Concurrent records from different sources were identified and age-standardised and age-specific incidence rates compared. Logistic regression analysis evaluated associations of gender, age-group, fifth of deprivation and period of diagnosis with concurrent sepsis recording. There were 20,206 first episodes of sepsis from primary care, 20,278 from HES and 13,972 from ONS. There were 4,117 (20%) first HES sepsis events and 2,438 (17%) mortality records concurrent with incident primary care sepsis records within 30 days. Concurrent HES and primary care records of sepsis within 30 days before or after first diagnosis were higher at younger or older ages and for patients with the most recent period of diagnosis. Those diagnosed during 2007:2011 were less likely to have a concurrent HES record given CPRD compared to those diagnosed during 2012-2017 (odd ratio 0.65, 95% confidence interval 0.60-0.70). At age 85 and older, primary care incidence was 5.22 per 1,000 patient years (95% CI 1.75-11.97) in men and 3.55 (0.87-9.58) in women which increased to 10.09 (4.86-18.51) for men and 7.22 (2.96-14.72) for women after inclusion of all three sources.ConclusionExplicit recording of 'sepsis' is inconsistent across healthcare sectors with a high proportion of non-concurrent records. Incidence estimates are higher when linked data are analysed

Mortality of Care Home Residents and Community-Dwelling Controls During the COVID-19 Pandemic in 2020:Matched Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to estimate and compare mortality of care home (CH) residents, and matched community-dwelling controls, during the Covid-19 pandemic from primary care electronic health records in England. DESIGN: Matched cohort study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Family practices in England in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum database. There were 83,627 CH residents in 2020, with 26,923 deaths; 80,730 (97%) were matched on age, gender and family practice with 300,445 community-dwelling adults. METHODS: All-cause mortality was evaluated and adjusted rate ratios (RR) by negative binomial regression were adjusted for age, gender, number of long-term conditions, frailty category, region, calendar month or week, and clustering by family practice. RESULTS: Underlying mortality of care home residents was higher than community controls (RR 5.59, 95% confidence interval 5.23 to 5.99, P<0.001). During April 2020, there was a net increase in mortality of care home residents over that of controls. The mortality rate of CH residents was 27.2 deaths per 1,000 patients per week, compared with 2.31 per 1,000 for controls. Excess deaths for care home residents, above that predicted from pre-pandemic years, peaked between 13th-19th April (men, 27.7, 95% confidence interval 25.1 to 30.3; women, 17.4, 15.9 to 18.8 per 1,000 per week). Compared with CH residents, long-term conditions and frailty were differentially associated with greater mortality in community-dwelling controls. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: Individual-patient data from primary care electronic health records may be used to estimate mortality in care home residents. Mortality is substantially higher than for community-dwelling comparators and showed a disproportionate increase in the first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic. Care home residents require particular protection during periods of high infectious disease transmission

Foot and ankle problems in children and young people: a population-based cohort study

Background: There is little data describing the nature and frequency of foot and ankle problems in children and young people (CYP) problems attending primary care. Aim: To describe the epidemiology, presentation and healthcare use for foot and ankle problems in CYP across England. Design and Setting: Population-based cohort study using the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) Aurum (January 2015 to December 2021).Method: Data from the CPRD was accessed for those aged 0–18 years presenting to their General Practitioner (GP) (from January 2015 and December 2021) with a foot or ankle problem and consultation rates calculated. Rates were used to estimate the expected number of foot and ankle consultations among CYP in an average practice. Hierarchical Poisson regression models estimated the relative rate of foot and ankle consultations and logistic regression analysis evaluated sociodemographic associations and pre-existing health conditions with repeat attendance. Results: There were 416,137 patients with 687,753 encounters for foot and ankle health. Rates peaked at 601 consultations per 10,000 patient years among males aged 10-14 years in 2018. The most observed encounters were “ingrowing toenail” (16%) and “foot pain” (10%). The highest frequency code categories for encounters were “musculoskeletal” (34%), and “unspecified pain” (21%). An average general practice with 3,500 CYP patients might observe 132 (110 - 155) foot and ankle consultations per year. Odds for repeat visits were lower among females compared to males (OR 0.95, 95% CI:0.93–0.96) and higher among those with pre-existing health conditions including juvenile arthritis (OR 1.73, 95%CI:1.48–2.03). Conclusion: GP encounters for foot or ankle problems appear high and indicate the need for rapid access to appropriate health professionals for accurate diagnosis & treatment. Relatively higher rates of consultations among those aged 10 to 14 years and the increased likelihood of repeat visits among those with existing health conditions have implications for service provision

Cardiometabolic outcomes up to 12 months after COVID-19 infection. A matched cohort study in the UK

BACKGROUND: Acute Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been associated with new-onset cardiovascular disease (CVD) and diabetes mellitus (DM), but it is not known whether COVID-19 has long-term impacts on cardiometabolic outcomes. This study aimed to determine whether the incidence of new DM and CVDs are increased over 12 months after COVID-19 compared with matched controls. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a cohort study from 2020 to 2021 analysing electronic records for 1,356 United Kingdom family practices with a population of 13.4 million. Participants were 428,650 COVID-19 patients without DM or CVD who were individually matched with 428,650 control patients on age, sex, and family practice and followed up to January 2022. Outcomes were incidence of DM and CVD. A difference-in-difference analysis estimated the net effect of COVID-19 allowing for baseline differences, age, ethnicity, smoking, body mass index (BMI), systolic blood pressure, Charlson score, index month, and matched set. Follow-up time was divided into 4 weeks from index date (“acute COVID-19”), 5 to 12 weeks from index date (“post-acute COVID-19”), and 13 to 52 weeks from index date (“long COVID-19”). Net incidence of DM increased in the first 4 weeks after COVID-19 (adjusted rate ratio, RR 1.81, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.51 to 2.19) and remained elevated from 5 to 12 weeks (RR 1.27, 1.11 to 1.46) but not from 13 to 52 weeks overall (1.07, 0.99 to 1.16). Acute COVID-19 was associated with net increased CVD incidence (5.82, 4.82 to 7.03) including pulmonary embolism (RR 11.51, 7.07 to 18.73), atrial arrythmias (6.44, 4.17 to 9.96), and venous thromboses (5.43, 3.27 to 9.01). CVD incidence declined from 5 to 12 weeks (RR 1.49, 1.28 to 1.73) and showed a net decrease from 13 to 52 weeks (0.80, 0.73 to 0.88). The analyses were based on health records data and participants’ exposure and outcome status might have been misclassified. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we found that CVD was increased early after COVID-19 mainly from pulmonary embolism, atrial arrhythmias, and venous thromboses. DM incidence remained elevated for at least 12 weeks following COVID-19 before declining. People without preexisting CVD or DM who suffer from COVID-19 do not appear to have a long-term increase in incidence of these conditions