A Time Dependent Zonally Averaged Energy Balance Model to be Incorporated into IMAGE (Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect)

This paper is the first report of a collaborative effort between IIASA and The Netherlands' National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection (RTVM), Bilthoven, on developing an integrated model for assessing, in a time-dependent manner, the socio-economic and ecological effects of a given greenhouse gas scenario. This involves linking greenhouse gas emission accounting frameworks, models for calculating changes with time of greenhouse gas concentrations and climatic change, and ecological changes such as shifts in growing zones for natural vegetation and agricultural crops, and effects on forest growth, water supply and sea level rise. This paper reports on one of the first steps in this linkage: modifying the climate module of RTVM's Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE) to provide appropriate temperature and precipitation scenarios for the ecological models. The work follows in the tradition of both institutions in developing science-based tools for policy analysis

Impacts of good practice policies on regional and global greenhouse gas emissions

The report looks at the impact of "good practice"emission reduction policies in nine different areas globally and across six countries: China, Brazil, India, the US, Russia and Japan. These include renewable energy, a variety of energy efficiency standards (buildings, car fuel efficiecy, appliances and lighting, industry), hydrofluorocarbons (HFC.s), emissions from fossil fuel production, electric cars and forestry. The authors looked at the most ambitious "good practice" policies around the world that are being implemented now, and calculated the difference these would make if everybody were to apply them. If all governments follow those governments that currently adopt the best climate policies in just nin different areas, they could reduce emissions close to the levels needed to stay on track to hold global warming below 2 degrees C. The implementation of good practice policies is projected to stabilise greenhouse gas emissions at 49-50 GtCO2e by 2020, and decrease to 44- 47 GtCO2e by 2030- close to the 2 degrees C emissions range (30-44 GtCO2e) by 2030. Direct replication of good practice policies is projected to halt emissions growth in most regions sinificantly before 2030. In contrast, current policies are expected to see emissions to increase to around 54 GtCO2e by 2020 and 59-60 GtCO2e by 2030