Reliability and availability estimation of a photovoltaic system using Petri networks

Many photovoltaic (PV) systems are nowadays installed all around the world. However, the reliability and the availability estimation of photovoltaic systems have not been received great attention from researchers. Reliability and availability are important consideration in the life-cycle of such systems. This paper presents a methodology for estimating the reliability and the availability of a photovoltaic system using Petri networks. Each component - module, wires and inverter - is detailed in Petri networks and several laws are used in order to determine the reliability and system availability. The degradation function of each componenthas been taken into account. Results show that Petri networks simplify the reliability and availability modeling and analysis

Fluid thrust bearing reliability analysis using finite element modelling and response surface method

This paper presents a methodology for the failure probability evaluation of a thrust fluid bearing which plays a significant role in stability of machines rotors, mechatronic systems and high precision metrology systems. The static and dynamic behaviour of a fluid bearing depends on several parameters such as external load, the dimensions of the bearing, the supply pressure, the manufacturing capability and fluid properties. In this paper, the analysis of the fluid bearing characteristics is carried out using the finite element method (FEM). Stochastic response surface methodology (SRSM) is used for the approximation of the performance function of a bearing and the reliability is assessed by Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and first order reliability method (FORM)

EVALUATION OF GENETIC DIFFERENCES ON IMMUNOLOGICAL RESPONSE IN TWO NATIVE CHICKEN STRAINS FED ON DIFFERENT NATURAL AND ORGANIC ACID SUPPLEMENTATION

The main objective of this study was to investigate the effect of the genetic differences in immunological response by use the natural growth promoters in diets offered to local chicken strains (GoldenMontazah (GM) and Bandra (B)). The present study was carried out in Seds Poultry Breeding Research Station, Animal Production Research Institute, Banysweif Governorate, through August to January (2016). A total of 240 chicks (120 hens of each strain) were used from 16 to 40 weeks of age. Birds were randomly distributed into six treatments. Each treatment had 20 (female) chicks (20X 6X 2) that were individually caged. The first treatment of each strain served as a control group and fed the formulated basal diet without any tested feed additives. The second treatment fed the basal diet with BioPlus® 2B, (400gm/ton) a commercial probiotic preparation (pro. (Bio)). The third treatment hens were fed the same basal diet with the addition of TechnoMos® (500gm/ton) a prebiotic type (pre. (Tech)).The fourth treatment fed the basal diet with Diamond V®(2.5kg/ton) a commercial prebiotic produced (pre. (Dia)). The fifth treatment fed the basal diet with FORMI® NDF (2kg/ton) (organic acid (FORMI)). The sixth treatment fed the basal diet with combination of (BioPlus® 2B, (400gm/ton) + TechnoMos® (500gm/ton) + FORMI® NDF (1kg/ton)) (combination (BTF)).  Data showed that, the Heterophils/Lymphocyte ratio percentage value was significantly higher in  Golden Montaza than Bandara. The highest value was found for organic acids (FORMI) group and the lowest value was found for probiotic (Bio Plus) group.  As for the antibody titer before vaccination the highest values were found for pre (Tech) group in comparison to pre (Dia) group. And there were no significant differences between the control group and all treated groups. Also, the higher values of antibody titer against Newcastle vaccine after vaccination were found in pre (Tech.), org ((FORMI), combination (Bio, Tech and FORMI) and control groups compare to values were found in pre (Dia) and pro (Bio) groups. As for the differences titer between before and after vaccination against Newcastle disease virus, there were no significant differences

Unilateral Congenital Lenticular Pigmentation

Introduction: Release of pigments in the anterior chamber is frequently observed in pigment dispersion syndrome, an autosomal dominant disorder marked by bilateral pigment deposition on the anterior and possibly posterior lens capsule, zonules of the lens, trabecular meshwork, and corneal endothelium, in addition to radial, spoke-like transillumination defects in the mid peripheral iris [J Ayub Med Coll Abbottabad. 2017;29(3):412–414 and Optom Vis Sci. 1995;72(10):756–762]. Pigmentation of the anterior lens surface has also been associated with intraocular inflammation, pseudoexfoliation syndrome, siderosis, antipsychotic medication usage, and remnants of the tunica vasculosa lentis [Br J Ophthalmol. 1998;82(11):1344]. Case Presentation: A 23-year-old female presented to our eye clinic with chief complaint of mild blurring of vision in the right eye and inquired about refractive surgery. The patient denied any previous history of ocular inflammation, trauma, surgery, or use of topical or systemic medications. Slit-lamp examination of the right eye anterior segment was within normal limits except for the crystalline lens anterior capsular which showed confluent pigment deposits stellate in shape over the pupillary axis, whereas left eye examination was completely within normal limits. Ophthalmic examination of the posterior segment was normal in both eyes. Based on her previous ophthalmic history and slit-lamp examination of the right eye, a diagnosis of unilateral congenital lenticular pigmentation was made. Conclusion: Congenital lenticular pigmentation is a rare benign entity carrying no surgical indications with a relatively good visual response to optical correction. Recognition of this rare benign condition would add to the ophthalmologist’s differential of ocular pigmentation and avoid unnecessary concern and follow-up in more potentially progressive disorders such as pigmentary glaucoma

Fifteen Genetic Loci Associated with the Electrocardiographic P Wave

The P wave on an ECG is a measure of atrial electric function, and its characteristics may serve as predictors for atrial arrhythmias. Increased mean P-wave duration and P-wave terminal force traditionally have been used as markers for left atrial enlargement, and both have been associated with increased risk of atrial fibrillation. Here, we explore the genetic basis of P-wave morphology through meta-analysis of genome-wide association study results for P-wave duration and P-wave terminal force from 12 cohort studies. Methods and Results - We included 44 456 individuals, of which 6778 (16%) were of African ancestry. Genotyping, imputation, and genome-wide association study were performed at each study site. Summary-level results were meta-analyzed centrally using inverse-variance weighting. In meta-analyses of P-wave duration, we identified 6 significant (P<5×10-8) novel loci and replicated a prior association with SCN10A. We identified 3 loci at SCN5A, TBX5, and CAV1/CAV2 that were jointly associated with the PR interval, PR segment, and P-wave duration. We identified 6 novel loci in meta-analysis of P-wave terminal force. Four of the identified genetic loci were significantly associated with gene expression in 329 left atrial samples. Finally, we observed that some of the loci associated with the P wave were linked to overall atrial conduction, whereas others identified distinct phases of atrial conduction. Conclusions - We have identified 6 novel genetic loci associated with P-wave duration and 6 novel loci associated with P-wave terminal force. Future studies of these loci may aid in identifying new targets for drugs that may modify atrial conduction or treat atrial arrhythmias

SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: data from an international prospective cohort study

Background Preoperative SARS-CoV-2 vaccination could support safer elective surgery. Vaccine numbers are limited so this study aimed to inform their prioritization by modelling. Methods The primary outcome was the number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent one COVID-19-related death in 1 year. NNVs were based on postoperative SARS-CoV-2 rates and mortality in an international cohort study (surgical patients), and community SARS-CoV-2 incidence and case fatality data (general population). NNV estimates were stratified by age (18–49, 50–69, 70 or more years) and type of surgery. Best- and worst-case scenarios were used to describe uncertainty. Results NNVs were more favourable in surgical patients than the general population. The most favourable NNVs were in patients aged 70 years or more needing cancer surgery (351; best case 196, worst case 816) or non-cancer surgery (733; best case 407, worst case 1664). Both exceeded the NNV in the general population (1840; best case 1196, worst case 3066). NNVs for surgical patients remained favourable at a range of SARS-CoV-2 incidence rates in sensitivity analysis modelling. Globally, prioritizing preoperative vaccination of patients needing elective surgery ahead of the general population could prevent an additional 58 687 (best case 115 007, worst case 20 177) COVID-19-related deaths in 1 year. Conclusion As global roll out of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination proceeds, patients needing elective surgery should be prioritized ahead of the general population

The Cholecystectomy As A Day Case (CAAD) Score: A Validated Score of Preoperative Predictors of Successful Day-Case Cholecystectomy Using the CholeS Data Set

Background Day-case surgery is associated with significant patient and cost benefits. However, only 43% of cholecystectomy patients are discharged home the same day. One hypothesis is day-case cholecystectomy rates, defined as patients discharged the same day as their operation, may be improved by better assessment of patients using standard preoperative variables. Methods Data were extracted from a prospectively collected data set of cholecystectomy patients from 166 UK and Irish hospitals (CholeS). Cholecystectomies performed as elective procedures were divided into main (75%) and validation (25%) data sets. Preoperative predictors were identified, and a risk score of failed day case was devised using multivariate logistic regression. Receiver operating curve analysis was used to validate the score in the validation data set. Results Of the 7426 elective cholecystectomies performed, 49% of these were discharged home the same day. Same-day discharge following cholecystectomy was less likely with older patients (OR 0.18, 95% CI 0.15–0.23), higher ASA scores (OR 0.19, 95% CI 0.15–0.23), complicated cholelithiasis (OR 0.38, 95% CI 0.31 to 0.48), male gender (OR 0.66, 95% CI 0.58–0.74), previous acute gallstone-related admissions (OR 0.54, 95% CI 0.48–0.60) and preoperative endoscopic intervention (OR 0.40, 95% CI 0.34–0.47). The CAAD score was developed using these variables. When applied to the validation subgroup, a CAAD score of ≤5 was associated with 80.8% successful day-case cholecystectomy compared with 19.2% associated with a CAAD score >5 (p < 0.001). Conclusions The CAAD score which utilises data readily available from clinic letters and electronic sources can predict same-day discharges following cholecystectomy

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2•72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2•66–2•79) in 2000 to 2•31 (2•17–2•46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134•5 million (131•5–137•8) in 2000 to a peak of 139•6 million (133•0–146•9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135•3 million (127•2–144•1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2•1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27•1% (95% UI 26•4–27•8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67•2 years (95% UI 66•8–67•6) in 2000 to 73•5 years (72•8–74•3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50•7 million (49•5–51•9) in 2000 to 56•5 million (53•7–59•2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9•6 million (9•1–10•3) in 2000 to 5•0 million (4•3–6•0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25•7%, from 6•2 billion (6•0–6•3) in 2000 to 7•7 billion (7•5–8•0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58•6 years (56•1–60•8) in 2000 to 63•5 years (60•8–66•1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019. Interpretation: Over the past 20 years, fertility rates have been dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing, with few exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking social and economic determinants, such as those captured by the GBD Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently, several countries have experienced a combination of low fertility and stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more populations into the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic change and the emergence of new patterns will be essential for global health monitoring. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

The evolving SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Africa: Insights from rapidly expanding genomic surveillance

INTRODUCTION Investment in Africa over the past year with regard to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) sequencing has led to a massive increase in the number of sequences, which, to date, exceeds 100,000 sequences generated to track the pandemic on the continent. These sequences have profoundly affected how public health officials in Africa have navigated the COVID-19 pandemic. RATIONALE We demonstrate how the first 100,000 SARS-CoV-2 sequences from Africa have helped monitor the epidemic on the continent, how genomic surveillance expanded over the course of the pandemic, and how we adapted our sequencing methods to deal with an evolving virus. Finally, we also examine how viral lineages have spread across the continent in a phylogeographic framework to gain insights into the underlying temporal and spatial transmission dynamics for several variants of concern (VOCs). RESULTS Our results indicate that the number of countries in Africa that can sequence the virus within their own borders is growing and that this is coupled with a shorter turnaround time from the time of sampling to sequence submission. Ongoing evolution necessitated the continual updating of primer sets, and, as a result, eight primer sets were designed in tandem with viral evolution and used to ensure effective sequencing of the virus. The pandemic unfolded through multiple waves of infection that were each driven by distinct genetic lineages, with B.1-like ancestral strains associated with the first pandemic wave of infections in 2020. Successive waves on the continent were fueled by different VOCs, with Alpha and Beta cocirculating in distinct spatial patterns during the second wave and Delta and Omicron affecting the whole continent during the third and fourth waves, respectively. Phylogeographic reconstruction points toward distinct differences in viral importation and exportation patterns associated with the Alpha, Beta, Delta, and Omicron variants and subvariants, when considering both Africa versus the rest of the world and viral dissemination within the continent. Our epidemiological and phylogenetic inferences therefore underscore the heterogeneous nature of the pandemic on the continent and highlight key insights and challenges, for instance, recognizing the limitations of low testing proportions. We also highlight the early warning capacity that genomic surveillance in Africa has had for the rest of the world with the detection of new lineages and variants, the most recent being the characterization of various Omicron subvariants. CONCLUSION Sustained investment for diagnostics and genomic surveillance in Africa is needed as the virus continues to evolve. This is important not only to help combat SARS-CoV-2 on the continent but also because it can be used as a platform to help address the many emerging and reemerging infectious disease threats in Africa. In particular, capacity building for local sequencing within countries or within the continent should be prioritized because this is generally associated with shorter turnaround times, providing the most benefit to local public health authorities tasked with pandemic response and mitigation and allowing for the fastest reaction to localized outbreaks. These investments are crucial for pandemic preparedness and response and will serve the health of the continent well into the 21st century