An Objective-Based Perspective on Assessment of Model-Supported Policy Processes

Simulation models, being in use for a long time in natural sciences and engineering domains, are diffusing to a wider context including policy analysis studies. The differences between the nature of the domain of application, as well as the increased variety of usage partially induced by this difference naturally imply new challenges to be overcome. One of these challenges is related to the assessment of the simulation-based outcomes in terms of their reliability and relevance in the policy context being studied. The importance of this assessment is twofold. First of all, it is all about conducting a high quality policy study with effective results. However, the quality of the study does not necessarily imply acceptance of the results by the clients and/or colleagues. This problem of policy analysts increases the importance of such an assessment; an effective assessment may induce the acceptance of the conclusions drawn from the study by the clients and/or colleagues. The main objective of this paper is to introduce an objective-based assessment perspective for simulation model-supported policy studies. As a first step towards such a goal, an objective-based classification of models is introduced. Based on that, we will discuss the importance of different aspects of the assessment for each type. In doing so, we aim to provide a structured discussion that may serve as a sort of methodological guideline to be used by policy analysts, and also by clients.Simulation, Validation, Model Assessment, Policy Analysis, Model Typology

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Functional design of games to support natural resource management policy development Pieter Bots and Els van Daalen Simulation Gaming 2007; 38; 512 originally published online May 22, 2007

Perspectives on policy analyses:A framework for understanding and design

Policy analysis is a broad and versatile field of applied policy research and advice, where a multitude of perspectives and methods have developed. In this paper, we attempt to (re)structure the discipline in a single conceptual model. The model was derived on the basis of a review of relevant literature on policy analysis styles and a review of about 20 exemplary cases in the field of technology, policy and management. The model serves three purposes: understanding of policy analysis as a discipline, contribution to the design of new policy analysis methods and projects, and guidance for evaluating such methods and projects. The model identifies six activities and translates these into six underlying policy analytic styles. Each style implies different values, and calls for different criteria when it comes to evaluation. An important claim of the model is that, in practice, policy analysis consists of creatively combining these activities and styles

The impacts of biosecurity measures on Campylobacter contamination in broiler houses and slaughterhouses in the Netherlands : A simulation modelling approach

Intestinal campylobacteriosis, caused by Campylobacter ingestion, is the most reported zoonosis in the EU; it is societally costly and can lead to more severe sequelae. To reduce Campylobacter infections, biosecurity measures at both farms and slaughterhouses are warranted. However, the potential improvements achieved by these interventions have not been quantified. We used a systems science approach to develop a simulation model, synthesizing information from interviews with stakeholders in the Dutch broiler production industry and the current literature. The model includes both farms and slaughterhouses in a “system of systems,” helping to clarify the complexity of interrelated components of these systems and analyse the impact of various interventions. Insects, transportation crates, farm personnel, and catchers were identified as potential Campylobacter sources and modelled as elements of feedback loops. Insect control, farm hygiene, visitor control, thinning, and transportation control interventions were analysed. The model was shown to accurately describe the seasonality of Campylobacter, which supports its validity. Model simulation revealed that insect control interventions had the strongest impacts, followed by combined farm hygiene and visitor control, and combined thinning and transportation control. Insect control interventions alone reduced the peak percentage of contaminated chickens from 51% to 26% and the peak percentage of highly contaminated (>1000 CFU/g) neck samples of chicken carcasses from 13% to 8%. Implementing all interventions concurrently reduced the peak percentages of contaminated chickens to 5% and highly contaminated chicken neck samples to 2%. These results suggest that multiple biosecurity measures must be implemented to reduce Campylobacter contamination