Depicting Vocational Education and Training System in Computable General Equilibrium Models

Allgemeine Gleichgewichtsmodelle (Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models) werden oft genutzt, um Erkenntnisse über die gesamtwirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen bildungspolitischer Maßnahmen zu gewinnen. Eine Literaturrecherche zur Integration des Bildungs- und Ausbildungssystems in CGE-Modellen zeigt klare Limitationen bisheriger Studien bezüglich der Darstellung des Bildungs- und Ausbildungssystems und identifiziert damit eine wichtige Forschungslücke, der sich diese Dissertation widmet. Vor diesem Hintergrund ist das Hauptziel dieser Dissertation die Entwicklung eines neuartigen Ansatzes zur Einbeziehung der anerkannten Bildungs- und Berufsbildungssysteme in CGE-Modellen, einschließlich aller potenziellen Verbindungen zwischen diesen beiden Systemen. Das entwickelte Modell ermöglicht die Akkumulation von Arbeitskräften entsprechend der Veränderungen der Anzahl der Absolventen und Schulabbrecher eines integrierten Bildungs- und Ausbildungssystems. Es handelt sich um ein rekursiv-dynamisches Ein-Land-CGE-Modell (STAGE-Edu), das die mittel- bis langfristigen gesamtwirtschaftlichen Effekte verschiedener Bildungs- und Ausbildungspolitiken abbildet. Der Sudan gehört zu den Ländern der unteren mittleren Einkommensklasse, die bezüglich der Förderung der menschlichen Entwicklung vor zahlreichen Herausforderungen stehen. Aus diesem Grund werden in der vorliegenden Dissertation verschiedene bildungspolitische Maßnahmen analysiert und deren Auswirkungen auf das Wirtschaftswachstum und die Humankapitalbildung im Sudan bewertet. Der entwickelte Modellierungsrahmen leistet einen wichtigen Beitrag zur gesamtwirtschaftlichen Darstellung der durch Bildung und Ausbildung bewirkten menschlichen Entwicklung sowie der drauf abzielenden politischen Maßnahmen. STAGE-Edu bietet politischen Entscheidungsträgern ex-ante Erkenntnisse bezüglich der potenziellen Auswirkungen von Maßnahmen zur Verbesserung der Arbeitsqualifikation und letztlich zur Erhöhung des Lebensstandards der Bevölkerung.Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models have been widely used to generate insights into the economy-wide implications of education policy measures. A literature review on incorporating the education and training system in CGE models reveals explicit limitations of previous studies depicting vocational education and training system, hence, identifying a significant research gap, which shall be addressed in this dissertation. Against this background, the main objective of this dissertation is to develop a novel approach to incorporate the acknowledged education and vocational training systems in CGE models, including all potential exiting bridges between these two systems. The developed model enables labor force accumulation according to changes in the number of graduates and dropouts from an integrated education and training system. It is a recursive-dynamic single-country CGE model (STAGE-Edu), which depicts the medium- to long-run economy-wide effects of various education and training policies. The Sudan is one of the lower-middle-income countries that face numerous challenges in accelerating human development. For this reason, in the dissertation at hand different education and training policy measures are analyzed and their implications on economic growth and human capital accumulation in the Sudan are assessed. The developed modeling framework contributes to the field of economy-wide depiction of human development triggered by education and training as well as related policy measures. STAGE-Edu provides policymakers with ex-ante insights on potential impacts of measures for enhancing labor skills and ultimately for improving the livelihood of the population

Malaria control and elimination in Kenya: economy-wide benefits and regional disparities

Background Malaria remains a public health problem in Kenya despite several concerted control efforts. Empirical evidence regarding malaria effects in Kenya suggests that the disease imposes substantial economic costs, jeopardizing the achievement of sustainable development goals. The Kenya Malaria Strategy (2019–2023), which is currently being implemented, is one of several sequential malaria control and elimination strategies. The strategy targets reducing malaria incidences and deaths by 75% of the 2016 levels by 2023 through spending around Kenyan Shillings 61.9 billion over 5 years. This paper assesses the economy-wide implications of implementing this strategy. Methods An economy-wide simulation model is calibrated to a comprehensive 2019 database for Kenya, considering different epidemiological zones. Two scenarios are simulated with the model. The first scenario (GOVT) simulates the annual costs of implementing the Kenya Malaria Strategy by increasing government expenditure on malaria control and elimination programmes. The second scenario (LABOR) reduces malaria incidences by 75% in all epidemiological malaria zones without accounting for the changes in government expenditure, which translates into rising the household labour endowment (benefits of the strategy). Results Implementing the Kenya Malaria Strategy (2019–2023) enhances gross domestic product at the end of the strategy implementation period due to more available labour. In the short term, government health expenditure (direct malaria costs) increases significantly, which is critical in controlling and eliminating malaria. Expanding the health sector raises the demand for production factors, such as labour and capital. The prices for these factors rise, boosting producer and consumer prices of non-health-related products. Consequently, household welfare decreases during the strategy implementation period. In the long run, household labour endowment increases due to reduced malaria incidences and deaths (indirect malaria costs). However, the size of the effects varies across malaria epidemiological and agroecological zones depending on malaria prevalence and factor ownership. Conclusions This paper provides policymakers with an ex-ante assessment of the implications of malaria control and elimination on household welfare across various malaria epidemiological zones. These insights assist in developing and implementing related policy measures that reduce the undesirable effects in the short run. Besides, the paper supports an economically beneficial long-term malaria control and elimination effect.Peer Reviewe

A 2019 Social Accounting Matrix for Kenya Including Malaria Epidemiological and Agroecological Zones

This paper documents the development of a 2019 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Ken-ya. A special feature of this SAM is its spatial disaggregation according to malaria epidemio-logical and agroecological zones. It is built using data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (e.g., the economic survey 2021 and the 2019 Kenya Population and Housing Cen-sus), the Central Bank of Kenya (i.e., the Diaspora Remittances Survey), the Kenya Ministry of Health (i.e., the Kenya Malaria Strategy 2019–2023), the 2019 SAM for Kenya, construct-ed by Thurlow (2021), and the 2017 Kenyan SAM, developed by Ferrari et al. (2020). Com-pared to the existing Kenyan SAMs, this SAM has two vital features. First, it includes 30 la-bour categories, disaggregated by skill levels and malaria epidemiological and agroecological zones. Second, households are classified into 40 representative groups according to residence place, income quantiles, and malaria epidemiological and agroecological zones. Consequently, this SAM is a valuable database for conducting economy-wide analysis of health policies, e.g., assessing the implications of implementing malaria control and elimination strategies or chang-es in labour availability due to malaria effects on morbidity and mortality

A 2019 Social Accounting Matrix for Kenya including malaria epidemiological and agroecological zones

This paper documents the development of a 2019 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Kenya. A special feature of this SAM is its spatial disaggregation according to malaria epidemiological and agroecological zones. It is built using data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (e.g., the economic survey 2021 and the 2019 Kenya Population and Housing Census), the Central Bank of Kenya (i.e., the Diaspora Remittances Survey), the Kenya Ministry of Health (i.e., the Kenya Malaria Strategy 2019-2023), the 2019 SAM for Kenya, constructed by Thurlow (2021), and the 2017 Kenyan SAM, developed by Ferrari et al. (2020). Compared to the existing Kenyan SAMs, this SAM has two vital features. First, it includes 30 labour categories, disaggregated by skill levels and malaria epidemiological and agroecological zones. Second, households are classified into 40 representative groups according to residence place, income quantiles, and malaria epidemiological and agroecological zones. Consequently, this SAM is a valuable database for conducting economy-wide analysis of health policies, e.g., assessing the implications of implementing malaria control and elimination strategies or changes in labour availability due to malaria effects on morbidity and mortality

Malaria control and elimination in Kenya: Economy-wide benefits and regional disparities

Background Malaria remains a public health problem in Kenya despite several concerted control efforts. Empirical evidence regarding malaria effects in Kenya suggests that the disease imposes substantial economic costs, jeopardizing the achievement of sustainable development goals. The Kenya Malaria Strategy (2019–2023), which is currently being implemented, is one of several sequential malaria control and elimination strategies. The strategy targets reducing malaria incidences and deaths by 75% of the 2016 levels by 2023 through spending around Kenyan Shillings 61.9 billion over 5 years. This paper assesses the economy-wide implications of implementing this strategy. Methods An economy-wide simulation model is calibrated to a comprehensive 2019 database for Kenya, considering different epidemiological zones. Two scenarios are simulated with the model. The first scenario (GOVT) simulates the annual costs of implementing the Kenya Malaria Strategy by increasing government expenditure on malaria control and elimination programmes. The second scenario (LABOR) reduces malaria incidences by 75% in all epidemiological malaria zones without accounting for the changes in government expenditure, which translates into rising the household labour endowment (benefits of the strategy). Results Implementing the Kenya Malaria Strategy (2019–2023) enhances gross domestic product at the end of the strategy implementation period due to more available labour. In the short term, government health expenditure (direct malaria costs) increases significantly, which is critical in controlling and eliminating malaria. Expanding the health sector raises the demand for production factors, such as labour and capital. The prices for these factors rise, boosting producer and consumer prices of non-health-related products. Consequently, household welfare decreases during the strategy implementation period. In the long run, household labour endowment increases due to reduced malaria incidences and deaths (indirect malaria costs). However, the size of the effects varies across malaria epidemiological and agroecological zones depending on malaria prevalence and factor ownership. Conclusions This paper provides policymakers with an ex-ante assessment of the implications of malaria control and elimination on household welfare across various malaria epidemiological zones. These insights assist in developing and implementing related policy measures that reduce the undesirable effects in the short run. Besides, the paper supports an economically beneficial long-term malaria control and elimination effect.PRIFPRI3; ISI; 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply; 5 Strengthening Institutions and Governance; Cross-cutting gender theme; DCA; Capacity StrengtheningDevelopment Strategies and Governance (DSG); Transformation Strategie