Development of Risk Prediction Equations for Incident Chronic Kidney Disease

IMPORTANCE ‐ Early identification of individuals at elevated risk of developing chronic kidney disease  could improve clinical care through enhanced surveillance and better management of underlying health  conditions.  OBJECTIVE – To develop assessment tools to identify individuals at increased risk of chronic kidney  disease, defined by reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR).  DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS – Individual level data analysis of 34 multinational cohorts from  the CKD Prognosis Consortium including 5,222,711 individuals from 28 countries. Data were collected  from April, 1970 through January, 2017. A two‐stage analysis was performed, with each study first  analyzed individually and summarized overall using a weighted average. Since clinical variables were  often differentially available by diabetes status, models were developed separately within participants  with diabetes and without diabetes. Discrimination and calibration were also tested in 9 external  cohorts (N=2,253,540). EXPOSURE Demographic and clinical factors.  MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES – Incident eGFR <60 ml/min/1.73 m2.  RESULTS – In 4,441,084 participants without diabetes (mean age, 54 years, 38% female), there were  660,856 incident cases of reduced eGFR during a mean follow‐up of 4.2 years. In 781,627 participants  with diabetes (mean age, 62 years, 13% female), there were 313,646 incident cases during a mean follow‐up of 3.9 years. Equations for the 5‐year risk of reduced eGFR included age, sex, ethnicity, eGFR, history of cardiovascular disease, ever smoker, hypertension, BMI, and albuminuria. For participants  with diabetes, the models also included diabetes medications, hemoglobin A1c, and the interaction  between the two. The risk equations had a median C statistic for the 5‐year predicted probability of  0.845 (25th – 75th percentile, 0.789‐0.890) in the cohorts without diabetes and 0.801 (25th – 75th percentile, 0.750‐0.819) in the cohorts with diabetes. Calibration analysis showed that 9 out of 13 (69%) study populations had a slope of observed to predicted risk between 0.80 and 1.25. Discrimination was  similar in 18 study populations in 9 external validation cohorts; calibration showed that 16 out of 18 (89%) had a slope of observed to predicted risk between 0.80 and 1.25. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE – Equations for predicting risk of incident chronic kidney disease developed in over 5 million people from 34 multinational cohorts demonstrated high discrimination and  variable calibration in diverse populations

COVID-19 symptoms at hospital admission vary with age and sex: results from the ISARIC prospective multinational observational study

Background: The ISARIC prospective multinational observational study is the largest cohort of hospitalized patients with COVID-19. We present relationships of age, sex, and nationality to presenting symptoms. Methods: International, prospective observational study of 60 109 hospitalized symptomatic patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 recruited from 43 countries between 30 January and 3 August 2020. Logistic regression was performed to evaluate relationships of age and sex to published COVID-19 case definitions and the most commonly reported symptoms. Results: ‘Typical’ symptoms of fever (69%), cough (68%) and shortness of breath (66%) were the most commonly reported. 92% of patients experienced at least one of these. Prevalence of typical symptoms was greatest in 30- to 60-year-olds (respectively 80, 79, 69%; at least one 95%). They were reported less frequently in children (≤ 18 years: 69, 48, 23; 85%), older adults (≥ 70 years: 61, 62, 65; 90%), and women (66, 66, 64; 90%; vs. men 71, 70, 67; 93%, each P &lt; 0.001). The most common atypical presentations under 60 years of age were nausea and vomiting and abdominal pain, and over 60 years was confusion. Regression models showed significant differences in symptoms with sex, age and country. Interpretation: This international collaboration has allowed us to report reliable symptom data from the largest cohort of patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19. Adults over 60 and children admitted to hospital with COVID-19 are less likely to present with typical symptoms. Nausea and vomiting are common atypical presentations under 30 years. Confusion is a frequent atypical presentation of COVID-19 in adults over 60 years. Women are less likely to experience typical symptoms than men

Changes in autonomic function and cerebral and somatic oxygenation with arterial flow pulsatility for children requiring veno-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation

Background: Veno-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA-ECMO) carries variability in arterial flow pulsatility (AFP). Research question: What changes in cerebral and somatic oxygenation, hemodynamics, and autonomic function are associated with AFP during VA-ECMO? Methods: This is a prospective study of children on VA-ECMO undergoing neuromonitoring. AFP was quantified by arterial blood pressure pulse amplitude and subcategorized: no pulsatility (<1 mmHg), minimal pulsatility (1 to <5 mmHg), moderate pulsatility (5 to <15 mmHg) and high pulsatility (≥15 mmHg). CVPR was assessed using the cerebral oximetry index (COx). Cerebral and somatic oxygenation was assessed using cerebral regional oximetry (rSO2) or peripheral oxygen saturation (SpO2). Autonomic function was assessed using baroreflex sensitivity (BRs), low-frequency high-frequency (LF/HF) ratio and standard deviation of heart rate R–R intervals (HRsd). Differences were assessed across AFP categories using linear mixed effects models with Tukey pairwise comparisons. Univariate logistic regression was used to explore risk of AFP with brain injuries. Results: Among fifty-three children, comparisons of moderate to high pulsatility were associated with reductions in rSO2 (p < 0.001), SpO 2 (p = 0.005), LF/HF ratio (p = 0.028) and an increase in HRsd (p < 0.001). Reductions in BRs were observed across comparisons of none to minimal (P < 0.001) and minimal to moderate pulsatility (p = 0.004). Comparisons of no to low pulsatility were associated with reductions in BRs (p < 0.001) and ABP (p < 0.001) with increases in SpO2 (p < 0.001) and HR (p < 0.001). Arterial ischemic stroke was associated with higher pulsatility (p = 0.0384). Conclusion: During VA-ECMO support, changes toward high AFP are associated with autonomic dysregulation and compromised cerebral and somatic tissue oxygenation

Pharmacotherapies for the Treatment of Progressive Supranuclear Palsy: A Narrative Review

Abstract Progressive supranuclear palsy (PSP) is a neurodegenerative disorder resulting from the deposition of misfolded and neurotoxic forms of tau protein in specific areas of the midbrain, basal ganglia, and cortex. It is one of the most representative forms of tauopathy. PSP presents in several different phenotypic variations and is often accompanied by the development of concurrent neurodegenerative disorders. PSP is universally fatal, and effective disease-modifying therapies for PSP have not yet been identified. Several tau-targeting treatment modalities, including vaccines, monoclonal antibodies, and microtubule-stabilizing agents, have been investigated and have had no efficacy. The need to treat PSP and other tauopathies is critical, and many clinical trials investigating tau-targeted treatments are underway. In this review, the PubMed database was queried to collect information about preclinical and clinical research on PSP treatment. Additionally, the US National Library of Medicine’s ClinicalTrials.gov website was queried to identify past and ongoing clinical trials relevant to PSP treatment. This narrative review summarizes our findings regarding these reports, which include potential disease-modifying drug trials, modifiable risk factor management, and symptom treatments

MOSAIC: A cohort study of human mpox virus disease

Background: Human mpox is a viral disease caused by an Orthopoxvirus, human mpox virus (hMPXV), typically causing fever and a rash. Mpox has historically been endemic to parts of Central and West Africa, with small numbers of imported cases reported elsewhere, but starting May 2022 an unprecedented global outbreak caused by clade IIb hMPXV was reported outside traditionally endemic countries. This prompted the initiation of MOSAIC, a cohort study implemented in Europe and Asia that aims to describe clinical and virologic outcomes of PCR-confirmed hMPXV disease, including those who receive antiviral therapy. The study is ongoing. Methods: MOSAIC recruits participants of any age with laboratory-confirmed mpox disease who provide informed consent. Participants enrol in the cohort for a total of six months. Blood, lesion and throat samples are collected at several timepoints from the day of diagnosis or the first day of treatment (Day 1) until Day 28 for PCR detection of hMPXV. Clinical data are collected by clinicians and participants ( via a self-completion questionnaire) for six months to characterize the signs and symptoms associated with the illness, as well as short- and more long-term outcomes. Discussion: The design and prompt implementation of clinical research response is key in addressing emerging outbreaks. MOSAIC began enrolment within two months of the start of the international mpox epidemic. While the number of cases is now low, the study remains open for inclusion. Ictrp registration: EU CT number: 2022-501132-42-00 (22/06/2022)

Serum estrogen and tumor-positive estrogen receptor-alpha are strong prognostic classifiers of non-small-cell lung cancer survival in both men and women

The role of tumor estrogen receptors (ERs) and serum estrogen in lung cancer is inconclusive. We investigated the hypothesis that ERs and functional single-nucleotide polymorphisms in the estrogen biosynthesis pathway are associated with poorer lung cancer survival. Lung cancer patients (n = 305) from a National Cancer Institute-Maryland (NCI-MD) case–case cohort in the Baltimore metropolitan area were used as a test cohort. To validate, 227 cases from the NCI-MD case–control cohort and 293 cases from a Norwegian lung cancer cohort were studied. Information on demographics, tobacco and reproductive histories was collected in an interviewer-administered questionnaire. Serum estrogen, progesterone, tumor messenger RNA expression of hormone receptors and germ line DNA polymorphisms were analyzed for associations with lung cancer survival. Patients in the highest tertile of serum estrogen had worse survival in all three cohorts (P combined < 0.001). Furthermore, the variant allele of estrogen receptor alpha (ER-α) polymorphism (rs2228480) was significantly associated with increased tumor ER-α levels and worse survival in all three cohorts [hazard ratio (HR) = 2.59, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.20– 4.01; HR = 1.76, 95% CI: 1.08–2.87 and HR = 2.85, 95% CI: 1.31–4.36). Other polymorphisms associated with lower serum estrogen correlated with improved survival. Results were independent of gender and hormone replacement therapy. We report a significant association of increased serum estrogen with poorer survival among lung cancer male and female patients. Understanding the genetic control of estrogen biosynthesis and response in lung cancer could lead to improved prognosis and therapy