Finance and growth: a macroeconomic assessment of the evidence from a European angle

This paper reviews the literature on the finance-growth nexus within a neoclassical growth framework, placing an emphasis on the policy implications in the current European environment, that has placed financial reforms high on the policy Agenda. While more research is needed to establish causality and verify the theoretical channels linking access to finance and growth, firm-level, industry-level, macro, and country-specific studies all tend to show a significant correlation between financial efficiency and economic performance. The empirical evidence hint that in underdeveloped and emerging countries financial development fosters aggregate growth mainly by lowering the cost of capital, while in advanced economies by raising total-factor-productivity. JEL Classification: G00, O00Development, Europe, finance, Financial Institutions, Financial Intermediation, Growth Decomposition, productivity

The long-run effects of the scramble for Africa

We examine the long-run consequences of the scramble for Africa among European powers in the late 19th century and uncover the following empirical regularities. First, utilizing information on the spatial distribution of African ethnicities before colonization, we show that apart from the land mass and water area of an ethnicity’s historical homeland, no other geographic, economic, and historical trait, including proxies of pre-colonial conflict, predicts partitioning by the national borders. Second, we exploit a detailed geo-referenced database that records various types of conflict across African regions and show that civil conflict is concentrated in the historical homeland of partitioned ethnicities. We also document that violence against civilians (child soldiering, village burning, abductions, rapes) and territorial changes between rebel groups, militias, and government forces are more prevalent in the homelands of split groups. These results are robust to a rich set of local controls, the inclusion of country fixed effects and ethnic-family fixed effects. The uncovered evidence brings in the foreground the violent repercussions of an important aspect of European colonization, that of ethnic partitioning

Adjustment to target capital, finance and growth

Does financial development result in capital being reallocated more rapidly to industries where it is most productive? We argue that if this was the case, financially developed countries should see faster growth in industries with investment opportunities due to global demand and productivity shifts. Testing this cross-industry cross-country growth implication requires proxies for (latent) global industry investment opportunities. We show that tests relying only on data from specific (benchmark) countries may yield spurious evidence for or against the hypothesis. We therefore develop an alternative approach that combines benchmark-country proxies with a proxy that does not reflect opportunities specific to a country or level of financial development. Our empirical results yield clear support for the capital reallocation hypothesis.Financial development, sector analysis, growth, measurement error, investment opportunities

Costs and benefits of running an international currency

This report discusses the cost and benefits of running an international currency. It starts by discussing the effect of the euro's internationalization on financial markets, and presents data on the impact of the single currency on private credit. It considers recent work on the effect of the euro on financial integration and the implications of the euro's rising internationalization on the liquidity premium. Then it turns to the vehicle currency role of the euro and presents some results using new data from the latest BIS Triennial Survey on the foreign exchange market. Concerning the direct benefits of running an international currency, the report first offers estimates on the likely gains from international seigniorage and discuss work on the effects of the internationalization of the euro on the terms of trade and invoicing patterns in international trade. The implications of the international role of the euro for portfolio returns and the so-called “exorbitant privilege†are analysed in detail. The effects of the single currency on exchange rate volatility are also considered. It summarizes recent research on the impact of the euro on global bond and equity and analyzes the potential implications of the euro's international status for central banks' reserve holdings. Finally, it turns to the effects of the euro on the stability of domestic money demand and the problems posed for monetary policy, and the implications for international financial stability.euro, international currency, international role of the euro, Papaioannou , Portes , Costs and benefits of running an international currency

Divide and Rule or the Rule of the Divided? Evidence from Africa

We investigate jointly the importance of contemporary country-level institutional structures and local ethnicity-specific pre-colonial institutions in shaping comparative regional development in Africa. We utilize information on the spatial distribution of African ethnicities before colonization and exploit within ethnicity (across countries) and within-country (across ethnicities) regional variation in economic performance, as proxied by satellite light density at night. The fact that political boundaries across the African landscape partitioned ethnic groups in different countries, thus subjecting identical cultures to different country-level institutions, offers a regression discontinuity framework. After identifying the partitioned ethnicities we document a positive cross-sectional association between national institutions and regional economic development. However, our ethnicity fixed-effects specifications show that differences in countrywide institutional arrangements do not explain differences in regional economic performance within ethnic groups. In contrast, we document that local ethnic traits proxied by tribal pre-colonial political institutions and class stratification exert even today a significant effect on regional development. The positive within country effect of pre-colonial institutions also obtains in regions of partitioned ethnicities along the national boundaries.Africa, Borders, Ethnicities, Development, Institutions

Red tape and delayed entry

Does cutting red tape foster entrepreneurship in industries with the potential to expand? We address this question by combining the time needed to comply with government entry procedures in 45 countries with industry-level data on employment growth and growth in the number of establishments during the 1980s. Our main empirical finding is that countries where it takes less time to register new businesses have seen more entry in industries that experienced expansionary global demand and technology shifts. Our estimates take into account that proxying global industry shifts using data from only one country–or group of countries with similar entry regulations–will in general yield biased results.Entry regulation, entry, globally expanding industries

Red tape and delayed entry

Does cutting red tape foster entrepreneurship in industries with the potential to expand? We address this question by combining the time needed to comply with government entry procedures in 45 countries with industry-level data on employment growth and growth in the number of establishments during the 1980s. Our main empirical finding is that countries where it takes less time to register new businesses have seen more entry in industries that experienced expansionary global demand and technology shifts. Our estimates take into account that proxying global industry shifts using data from only one country–or group of countries with similar entry regulations–will in general yield biased results. JEL Classification: E6, F43, L16entry, entry regulation and globally expanding industries

The Long-Run Effects of the Scramble for Africa

We examine the long-run consequences of a neglected aspect of colonization, the artificial drawing of borders during the Scramble for Africa and uncover the following empirical regularities. First, apart from the land mass and water area, no other pre-colonial trait predicts a group’s partitioning. Second, using georeferenced data on conflict we show that battles, violence against civilians and territorial changes are concentrated in the historical homeland of partitioned ethnicities. Third, we show that individuals identifying with split groups are on average poorer and less educated. The uncovered evidence brings in the foreground the violent repercussions of ethnic partitioning.

Estimating cross-industry cross-country models using benchmark industry characteristics

International industry data permits testing whether the industry-specific impact of cross-country differences in institutions or policies is consistent with economic theory. Empirical implementation requires specifying the industry characteristics that determine impact strength. Most of the literature has been using US proxies of the relevant industry characteristics. We show that using industry characteristics in a benchmark country as a proxy of the relevant industry characteristics can result in an attenuation bias or an amplification bias. We also describe circumstances allowing for an alternative approach that yields consistent estimates. As an application, we reexamine the influential conjecture that financial development facilitates the reallocation of capital from declining to expanding industries.