Prediction of specific virus outbreaks made from the increased concentration of a new class of virus genomic peptides, replikins.

Advance warning of pathogen outbreaks has not been possible heretofore. A new class of genomic peptides associated with rapid replication was discovered and named replikins. Software was designed to analyze replikins quantitatively. Replikin concentration changes were measured annually prior to, and “real time” every few days during, the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Replikins were seen by both linear sequence representation and three-dimensional X-ray diffraction, and found to expand on the virus hemagglutinin surface prior to and during the H1N1 pandemic.

A highly significant increased concentration of virus replikins was found a) retrospectively in three pandemics from 1918 to 1999 (14,227 sequences)(p<0.001), and b) prospectively before the H1N1 2009 pandemic (12,806 sequences) (in the hemagglutinin gene (N=8,046), p values by t-test = 1/10130, by linear regression = 1/1024 and 1/1029, by Spearman correlation < 2/1016, by Wilcoxon rank sum<1/1016, by multiple regression adjusting for correlation between consecutive years = 2/1022. Rising replikin concentration in H1N1 from 2006 to 2008, predicted one year in advance the H1N1 outbreak of 2009; and in H5N1, predicted the lethal outbreaks of H5N1 1997-2010. 

The possible combination of influenza strains H1N1 (high infectivity) and H5N1 (high lethality) is a matter of global concern (1,2). The risk of a combined H1N1 (high infectivity) - H5N1 (high lethality) outbreak may have increased because first, the Replikin Counts of the two virus strains have risen simultaneously, not seen previously; second, the rise is to the highest levels recorded since 1918 for H1N1, in Mexico (16.7), and since 1957 for H5N1, in Egypt (23.3); and third, clinical outbreaks of each strain are occurring in 2011. These simultaneous conditions may increase the risk that the two virus strains might come into contact with each other more frequently, facilitating transfer of genomic material to form a hybrid

Marked Rise in Replikin Counts in H5N1 Influenza Virus Localized to Lethality Gene p B1.

Abstract: Virus outbreaks have been found to be related to the concentration of a new class of genomic peptides, Replikins^1^. The eight genes of H5N1 influenza virus were analyzed for the distribution of Replikin Counts (number Replikins /100 amino acids) in 2,441 sequences from birds and humans. An increase (p<0.001) occurred from 2004 to August 2011 in one gene, pB1

Bogoch Replikins Pandemic Prevention: Increase of Strain-Specific Influenza Genomic Replikin Counts, Having Predicted Outbreaks and their Location Seven Times Consecutively, Up to Two Years in Advance, Provides Time for Prevention of Pandemics

Earlier studies have shown that the increased concentration of a new class of virus genomic peptides, Replikins, precedes and predicts virus outbreaks. We now find that the area in the genome of the highest concentration of Replikins, and the country in which this peak exists in scout viruses, have permitted in the past five years seven consecutive accurate predictions of the geographic localization of coming outbreaks, including those now realized in Mexico for H1N1, and in Cambodia for H5N1. Real-time Replikin analysis of the evolution of the virus genome identified both mutations and structural reorganization of the hemagglutinin and p B1 genes over several years before each outbreak. This information, together with the specific Replikin sequences so obtained, permitted solid-phase synthesis of Replikin vaccines in seven days, which blocked H5N1 in chickens. The information also now provides up to two years of time to thoroughly test and distribute vaccines to high risk individuals in the countries identified; thus for the first time, a quantitative genomic Replikins method to both predict initial outbreaks and to prevent the development of a pandemic

Genomic Replikin Count Predicts Increased Lethality of Malaria

Genomic Replikin Counts predict both the increase and the decrease of lethality of malari

Genomic Replikin Counts of Infectious Salmon Anemia Virus (ISAV) in Canada Exceed the Counts in Lethal Outbreaks in Norway, Chile, and Scotland. Real-Time Tracking of the Evolution of the ISAV Genome and the Resultant Replikins Solid Phase ISAV Vaccine Make ISAV Pandemic Prevention Possible.

Genomic Replikin CountsTM of Infectious Salmon Anemia Virus (ISAV) in Canada Exceed the Counts in Lethal Outbreaks in Norway, Chile, and Scotland. Real-Time Tracking of the Evolution of the ISAV Genome and the Resultant Replikins Solid Phase ISAV Vaccine Make ISAV Pandemic Prevention Possible.
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Early Detection and Monitoring of Cancer with the Anti-Malignin Antibody Test "

ABSTRACT: The serum anti-malignin antibody (AMA) test determines the antibody to malignin. a IO,OOO-Da peptide present in patients with a wide variety of cancers.l~ A total of 3315 double-blind tests demonstrated that AMA is a general transformation antibody, elevated in active no.nterminal cancer, regardless of the site or tissue type, with sensitivity and specificity of95% on the flTst determination and >99% on repeat determinations. - 9 Data have not however been published yet that indicate whether, in daily clinical practice, the AMA test provides accurate prospective and predictive information. Fony-two physicians from II states, who ordered the AMA test, performed blind, report here on their results on 208 determinations in the first consecutive 181 patients and controls. Used in monitoring treatment in 56 patients, the test predicted or agreed 94.1 % overall with the clinical status. Used in early detection in 125 patients and controls, of which 118 now have confirmed diagnoses. AMA was elevated in 21, all of whom were proven to have cancer; AMA was normal in 97, none of whom had cancer. Transient elevated AMA occurred in 3%, followed by normal values. Seven patients with still uncertain diagnosis who have had elevated AMA on repeated tests for I year or longer include six who are symptomatic, and three whose families have a high frequency of cancer. The conditions of these 7 may include undetected cancer because of the 118 with now certain diagnosis the AMA test predicted all correctly. From our experience, the AMA test should be used together with other routine procedures whenever signs and symptoms suggest cancer to facilitate early detection

Genome Replikin Count Predicts Increased Lethality of Resistant Tuberculosis

The genomic Replikin Count of all the sequences on Pubmed of different strains of tuberculosis were analyzed. The lowest Counts occurred with species within the lowest drug resistance, the highest Counts with sequences of the highest drug resistance and lethality

Genome Replikin Count Predicts Increased Lethality of Cancer

Those cancers, like thyroid and pancreatic cancer, with the lowest 5-year mortality rates, have Replikin Counts of about 20; lung and brain cancers, with the highest 5-year mortality rates, have Replikin Counts of 275 and 325 respectively; the others fall in between with approximate linearity. This is the first quantitative relationship of a genomic structure, Replikins, to 5-year mortality rates

Genome Replikin Count Predicts Increased Infectivity/Lethality of Viruses

The genomes of all groups of viruses whose sequences are listed on Pubmed, specimens since 1918, analyzed by a software from Bioradar UK Ltd., contain Replikins which range in concentration from a Replikin Count (number of Replikins per 100 amino acids) of less than 1 to 30 (see accompanying communications for higher Counts in tuberculosis, malaria, and cancer, associated with higher lethality). Counts of less than 4.0 were found in ‘resting’ virus states; Counts greater than 4.0, found to be associated with rapid replication, were found invariably to accompany or to predict virus outbreaks, by as much as two years, in viral hosts examined from salmon, to birds, to livestock, to humans. X-ray diffraction showed Replikins to be on the surface of the hemagglutinin gene of influenza and to spread as the Count increased from 3.2 to 10.1, prior to, then during, the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. The degree of lethality of these outbreaks was found to be a function of the statistically significant increase in Replikin Count, particularly in the influenza polymerase gene p B1 or its equivalent in other viruses. Prediction up to two years in advance of the outbreak, and the geographic location of the outbreak, now done in 7/7 trials (see Bogoch, Nature Precedings), has permitted the solid phase synthesis of Replikin vaccines in 7 days, with time to permit manufacture, adequate testing for safety and efficacy, and distribution freeze-dried to all populations. These completely synthetic Replikins vaccines so far have been shown to be effective against Taura Syndrome virus in shrimp, and H5N1 in chickens. Thus for the first time this new technology provides the practical possibility to prevent pandemics rather than just to react to them