Scenario modelling of basin-scale, shallow landslide sediment yield, Valsassina, Italian Southern Alps

International audienceThe SHETRAN model for determining the sediment yield arising from shallow landsliding at the scale of a river catchment was applied to the 180-km2 Valsassina basin in the Italian Southern Alps, with the aim of demonstrating that the model can simulate long term patterns of landsliding and the associated sediment yields and that it can be used to explore the sensitivity of the landslide sediment supply system to changes in catchment characteristics. The model was found to reproduce the observed spatial distribution of landslides from a 50-year record very well but probably with an overestimate of the annual rate of landsliding. Simulated sediment yields were within the range observed in a wider region of northern Italy. However, the results suggest that the supply of shallow landslide material to the channel network contributes relatively little to the overall long term sediment yield compared with other sources. The model was applied for scenarios of possible future climate (drier and warmer) and land use (fully forested hillslopes). For both scenarios, there is a modest reduction in shallow landslide occurrence and the overall sediment yield. This suggests that any current schemes for mitigating sediment yield impact in Valsassina remain valid. The application highlights the need for further research in eliminating the large number of unconditionally unsafe landslide sites typically predicted by the model and in avoiding large overestimates of landslide occurrence

Modelling the impact of forest loss on shallow landslide sediment yield, Ijuez river catchment, Spanish Pyrenees

International audienceThe SHETRAN model for simulating the sediment yield arising from shallow landslides at the scale of a river catchment was applied to the 45-km2 Ijuez catchment in the central Spanish Pyrenees, to investigate the effect of loss of forest cover on landslide and debris flow incidence and on catchment sediment yield. The application demonstrated how such a model, with a large number of parameters to be evaluated, can be used even when directly measured data are not available: rainfall and discharge time series were generated by reference to other local records and data providing the basis for a soil map were obtained by a short field campaign. Uncertainty bounds for the outputs were determined as a function of the uncertainty in the values of key model parameters. For a four-year period and for the existing forested state of the catchment, a good ability to simulate the observed long term spatial distribution of debris flows (represented by a 45-year inventory) and to determine catchment sediment yield within the range of regional observations was demonstrated. The lower uncertainty bound on simulated landslide occurrence approximated the observed annual rate of landsliding and suggests that landslides provide a relatively minor proportion of the total sediment yield, at least in drier years. A scenario simulation in which the forest cover was replaced by grassland indicated an increase in landsliding but a decrease in the number of landslides which evolve into debris flows and, at least for drier years, a reduction in sediment delivery to the channel network

Gully cut- and- fill cycles as related to agromanagement : a historical curve number simulation in the Tigray Highlands

Gully cut-and-fill dynamics are often thought to be driven by climate and/or deforestation related to population pressure. However, in this case-study of nine representative catchments in the Northern Ethiopian Highlands, we find that neither climate changes nor deforestation can explain gully morphology changes over the twentieth century. Firstly, by using a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate historical catchment-wide curve numbers, we show that the landscape was already heavily degraded in the nineteenth and early twentieth century – a period with low population density. The mean catchment-wide curve number (> 80) one century ago was, under the regional climatic conditions, already resulting in considerable simulated historical runoff responses. Secondly, twentieth century land-cover and runoff coefficient changes were confronted with twentieth century changing gully morphologies. As the results show, large-scale land-cover changes and deforestation cannot explain the observed processes. The study therefore invokes interactions between authigenic factors, small-scale plot boundary changes, cropland management and sociopolitical forces to explain the gully cut processes. Finally, semi-structured interviews and sedistratigraphic analysis of three filled gullies confirm the dominant impact of (crop)land management (tillage, check dams in gullies and channel diversions) on gully cut-and-fill processes. Since agricultural land management – including land tenure and land distribution – has been commonly neglected in earlier related research, we argue therefore that it can be a very strong driver of twentieth century gully morphodynamics

Interpreting and reporting ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar geochronologic data

The ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dating method is among the most versatile of geochronometers, having the potential to date a broad variety of K-bearing materials spanning from the time of Earth’s formation into the historical realm. Measurements using modern noble-gas mass spectrometers are now producing ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dates with analytical uncertainties of ∼0.1%, thereby providing precise time constraints for a wide range of geologic and extraterrestrial processes. Analyses of increasingly smaller subsamples have revealed age dispersion in many materials, including some minerals used as neutron fluence monitors. Accordingly, interpretive strategies are evolving to address observed dispersion in dates from a single sample. Moreover, inferring a geologically meaningful “age” from a measured “date” or set of dates is dependent on the geological problem being addressed and the salient assumptions associated with each set of data. We highlight requirements for collateral information that will better constrain the interpretation of ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar data sets, including those associated with single-crystal fusion analyses, incremental heating experiments, and in situ analyses of microsampled domains. To ensure the utility and viability of published results, we emphasize previous recommendations for reporting ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar data and the related essential metadata, with the amendment that data conform to evolving standards of being findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable (FAIR) by both humans and computers. Our examples provide guidance for the presentation and interpretation of ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dates to maximize their interdisciplinary usage, reproducibility, and longevity

Atrasentan and renal events in patients with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease (SONAR): a double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial

Background: Short-term treatment for people with type 2 diabetes using a low dose of the selective endothelin A receptor antagonist atrasentan reduces albuminuria without causing significant sodium retention. We report the long-term effects of treatment with atrasentan on major renal outcomes. Methods: We did this double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial at 689 sites in 41 countries. We enrolled adults aged 18–85 years with type 2 diabetes, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR)25–75 mL/min per 1·73 m 2 of body surface area, and a urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR)of 300–5000 mg/g who had received maximum labelled or tolerated renin–angiotensin system inhibition for at least 4 weeks. Participants were given atrasentan 0·75 mg orally daily during an enrichment period before random group assignment. Those with a UACR decrease of at least 30% with no substantial fluid retention during the enrichment period (responders)were included in the double-blind treatment period. Responders were randomly assigned to receive either atrasentan 0·75 mg orally daily or placebo. All patients and investigators were masked to treatment assignment. The primary endpoint was a composite of doubling of serum creatinine (sustained for ≥30 days)or end-stage kidney disease (eGFR <15 mL/min per 1·73 m 2 sustained for ≥90 days, chronic dialysis for ≥90 days, kidney transplantation, or death from kidney failure)in the intention-to-treat population of all responders. Safety was assessed in all patients who received at least one dose of their assigned study treatment. The study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01858532. Findings: Between May 17, 2013, and July 13, 2017, 11 087 patients were screened; 5117 entered the enrichment period, and 4711 completed the enrichment period. Of these, 2648 patients were responders and were randomly assigned to the atrasentan group (n=1325)or placebo group (n=1323). Median follow-up was 2·2 years (IQR 1·4–2·9). 79 (6·0%)of 1325 patients in the atrasentan group and 105 (7·9%)of 1323 in the placebo group had a primary composite renal endpoint event (hazard ratio [HR]0·65 [95% CI 0·49–0·88]; p=0·0047). Fluid retention and anaemia adverse events, which have been previously attributed to endothelin receptor antagonists, were more frequent in the atrasentan group than in the placebo group. Hospital admission for heart failure occurred in 47 (3·5%)of 1325 patients in the atrasentan group and 34 (2·6%)of 1323 patients in the placebo group (HR 1·33 [95% CI 0·85–2·07]; p=0·208). 58 (4·4%)patients in the atrasentan group and 52 (3·9%)in the placebo group died (HR 1·09 [95% CI 0·75–1·59]; p=0·65). Interpretation: Atrasentan reduced the risk of renal events in patients with diabetes and chronic kidney disease who were selected to optimise efficacy and safety. These data support a potential role for selective endothelin receptor antagonists in protecting renal function in patients with type 2 diabetes at high risk of developing end-stage kidney disease. Funding: AbbVie

Mitochondrial abnormalities in Parkinson's disease and Alzheimer's disease: can mitochondria be targeted therapeutically?

Mitochondrial abnormalities have been identified as a central mechanism in multiple neurodegenerative diseases and, therefore, the mitochondria have been explored as a therapeutic target. This review will focus on the evidence for mitochondrial abnormalities in the two most common neurodegenerative diseases, Parkinson's disease and Alzheimer's disease. In addition, we discuss the main strategies which have been explored in these diseases to target the mitochondria for therapeutic purposes, focusing on mitochondrially targeted antioxidants, peptides, modulators of mitochondrial dynamics and phenotypic screening outcomes

Scenario modelling of basin-scale, shallow landslide sediment yield, Valsassina, Italian Southern Alps

The SHETRAN model for determining the sediment yield arising from shallow landsliding at the scale of a river catchment was applied to the 180-km2 Valsassina basin in the Italian Southern Alps, with the aim of demonstrating that the model can simulate long term patterns of landsliding and the associated sediment yields and that it can be used to explore the sensitivity of the landslide sediment supply system to changes in catchment characteristics. The model was found to reproduce the observed spatial distribution of landslides from a 50-year record very well but probably with an overestimate of the annual rate of landsliding. Simulated sediment yields were within the range observed in a wider region of northern Italy. However, the results suggest that the supply of shallow landslide material to the channel network contributes relatively little to the overall long term sediment yield compared with other sources. The model was applied for scenarios of possible future climate (drier and warmer) and land use (fully forested hillslopes). For both scenarios, there is a modest reduction in shallow landslide occurrence and the overall sediment yield. This suggests that any current schemes for mitigating sediment yield impact in Valsassina remain valid. The application highlights the need for further research in eliminating the large number of unconditionally unsafe landslide sites typically predicted by the model and in avoiding large overestimates of landslide occurrence