Prediction of first cardiovascular disease event in 2.9 million individuals using Danish administrative healthcare data:a nationwide, registry-based derivation and validation study

AIMS: The aim of this study was to derive and validate a risk prediction model with nationwide coverage to predict the individual and population-level risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). METHODS AND RESULTS: All 2.98 million Danish residents aged 30–85 years free of CVD were included on 1 January 2014 and followed through 31 December 2018 using nationwide administrative healthcare registries. Model predictors and outcome were pre-specified. Predictors were age, sex, education, use of antithrombotic, blood pressure-lowering, glucose-lowering, or lipid-lowering drugs, and a smoking proxy of smoking-cessation drug use or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Outcome was 5-year risk of first CVD event, a combination of ischaemic heart disease, heart failure, peripheral artery disease, stroke, or cardiovascular death. Predictions were computed using cause-specific Cox regression models. The final model fitted in the full data was internally-externally validated in each Danish Region. The model was well-calibrated in all regions. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and Brier scores ranged from 76.3% to 79.6% and 3.3 to 4.4. The model was superior to an age-sex benchmark model with differences in AUC and Brier scores ranging from 1.2% to 1.5% and −0.02 to −0.03. Average predicted risks in each Danish municipality ranged from 2.8% to 5.9%. Predicted risks for a 66-year old ranged from 2.6% to 25.3%. Personalized predicted risks across ages 30–85 were presented in an online calculator (https://hjerteforeningen.shinyapps.io/cvd-risk-manuscript/). CONCLUSION: A CVD risk prediction model based solely on nationwide administrative registry data provided accurate prediction of personal and population-level 5-year first CVD event risk in the Danish population. This may inform clinical and public health primary prevention efforts

Frailty, Treatments, and Outcomes in Older Patients With Myocardial Infarction: A Nationwide Registry‐Based Study

Background Guidelines recommend that patients with myocardial infarction (MI) receive equal care regardless of age. However, withholding treatment may be justified in elderly and frail patients. This study aimed to investigate trends in treatments and outcomes of older patients with MI according to frailty. Methods and Results All patients aged ≥75 years with first‐time MI during 2002 to 2021 were identified through Danish nationwide registries. Frailty was categorized using the Hospital Frailty Risk Score. One‐year risk and hazard ratios (HRs) for days 0 to 28 and 29 to 365 were calculated for all‐cause death. A total of 51 022 patients with MI were included (median, 82 years; 50.2% women). Intermediate/high frailty increased from 26.7% in 2002 to 2006 to 37.1% in 2017 to 2021. Use of treatment increased substantially regardless of frailty: for example, 28.1% to 48.0% (statins), 21.8% to 33.7% (dual antiplatelet therapy), and 7.6% to 28.0% (percutaneous coronary intervention) for high frailty (all P‐trend <0.001). One‐year death decreased for low frailty (35.1%–17.9%), intermediate frailty (49.8%–31.0%), and high frailty (62.8%–45.6%), all P‐trend <0.001. Age‐ and sex‐adjusted 29‐ to 365‐day HRs (2017–2021 versus 2002–2006) were 0.53 (0.48–0.59), 0.62 (0.55–0.70), and 0.62 (0.46–0.83) for low, intermediate, and high frailty, respectively (P‐interaction=0.23). When additionally adjusted for treatment, HRs attenuated to 0.74 (0.67–0.83), 0.83 (0.74–0.94), and 0.78 (0.58–1.05), respectively, indicating that increased use of treatment may account partially for the observed improvements. Conclusions Use of guideline‐based treatments and outcomes improved concomitantly in older patients with MI, irrespective of frailty. These results indicate that guideline‐based management of MI may be reasonable in the elderly and frail