Estimating sustainability gaps: methods and preliminary applications for the UK and the Netherlands

This paper sets out and applies a new methodology for determining whether or not economic activity is environmentally sustainable. By comparing current environmental impacts with standards of environmental sustainability, it calculates the 'sustainability gaps' (SGAPs) with respect to different environmental impacts. For the UK, SGAPs are computed for CO2, SO2, and other air pollutants. Across none of these environmental themes can current UK use of the environment be said to be sustainable. The SGAP indicators can be combined with current trends to show how long it would take, on continuation of the trends, for the sustainability standard to be attained. The paper calls this indicator the 'Years to Sustainability' (YS) measure. For the policy objective of sustainable development to be made fully operational, it is necessary for the concept of environmental sustainability to be clearly defined by quantitative indicators. On the basis of the indicators set out in this paper it can be judged whether economic activity is moving towards or away from environmental sustainability, and at what speed

Green taxes and charges: reducing their impact on low-income households

Environmental or 'green' taxes and charges send signals to consumers by making consumption of environmental resources more expensive. However, there are concerns that their effect could be 'regressive', by hitting lower income households disproportionately. This research, by Paul Ekins and Simon Dresner of the Policy Studies Institute, investigated the possible impact on low-income households in four areas of environmental and social importance: domestic use of energy, water and transport, and domestic generation of waste. It also considered whether any negative impacts could be reduced if the tax or charge were designed appropriately, or if a compensation scheme were introduced

Reducing CO2 emissions from residential energy use

To achieve European Union (EU) greenhouse gas emissions of 80–95% below 1990 levels by 2050, CO2 emissions from residential energy consumption must be substantially reduced. Recognition of this has led to the introduction of a range of policy instruments at both EU and member state level. These policies are examined for the EU and the UK, first by grouping them into three ‘pillars of policy’ – standards and engagement, markets and pricing, and strategic investment (each of which focus on different ‘domains of change’ embodying different economic processes) – and then by assessing the strengths and weaknesses of each pillar in terms of instrument coverage and effectiveness. Strengths and weaknesses common to both UK and EU policy landscapes are found, including a comprehensive but broadly ineffective standards and engagement pillar of policy, and an ineffective markets and pricing landscape (including effective subsidization of energy consumption in the UK, permitted by the EU), with poor coverage. The strategic investment landscape is found (until recently) to be substantially stronger in the UK compared with EU instruments and requirements. Priority reform actions are also proposed to address the weaknesses identified. The paper also offers discussion of recent policy developments in the UK

Un-burnable oil: an examination of oil resource utilisation in a decarbonised energy system

This paper examines the volumes of oil that can and cannot be used up to 2035 during the transition to a low-carbon global energy system using the global energy systems model, TIAM-UCL and the 'Bottom up Economic and Geological Oil field production model' (BUEGO). Globally in a scenario allowing the widespread adoption of carbon capture and storage (CCS) nearly 500 billion barrels of existing 2P oil reserves must remain unused by 2035. In a scenario where CCS is unavailable this increases to around 600 billion barrels. Besides reserves, arctic oil and light tight oil play only minor roles in a scenario with CCS and essentially no role when CCS is not available. On a global scale, 40% of those resources yet to be found in deepwater regions must remain undeveloped, rising to 55% if CCS cannot be deployed. The widespread development of unconventional oil resources is also shown to be incompatible with a decarbonised energy system even with a total and rapid decarbonisation of energetic inputs. The work thus demonstrates the extent to which current energy policies encouraging the unabated exploration for, and exploitation of, all oil resources are incommensurate with the achievement of a low-carbon energy system. © 2013 The Authors

How the decarbonisation discourse may lead to a reduced set of policy options for climate policies in Europe in the 2020s

Centered on molecule-based energy carriers, policy challenges of phase-two Energy Transition (ET2) differ significantly from the electricity-centric ones (ET1) met by Europe so far. Calls for full electrification and frames shaped by notions of ‘renewable’, ‘green’, ‘ambition’ and ‘net-zero decarbonisation’ suggest that ‘lock-ins’ may emerge not only from (by now well-researched) incumbent strategies but also from advocacy discourses inherited from ET1. With power and knowledge inextricably conjoined, discourses co-construct the policy agenda. To succeed with ET2, Europe must develop a reflexive, multi-level and interdisciplinary strategy that covers the techno-economic-behavioral dimensions and the influence of discourses on policy formulation. By using discourse analysis and discursive institutionalism as an anchor for cognitive neuroscience and for the relevant social science and political science, ET research can consider how science-based and emotion-driven perspectives interbreed in policy and discourse complexes. How shared conceptual spaces are contested can help improve the reflexivity of ET research as well as provide insights on opposition. A keener understanding of two-way interaction between policies and discourses will help free ET2 policies from ET1 lock-ins

Hydrogen and fuel cell technologies for heating: A review

The debate on low-carbon heat in Europe has become focused on a narrow range of technological options and has largely neglected hydrogen and fuel cell technologies, despite these receiving strong support towards commercialisation in Asia. This review examines the potential benefits of these technologies across different markets, particularly the current state of development and performance of fuel cell micro-CHP. Fuel cells offer some important benefits over other low-carbon heating technologies, and steady cost reductions through innovation are bringing fuel cells close to commercialisation in several countries. Moreover, fuel cells offer wider energy system benefits for high-latitude countries with peak electricity demands in winter. Hydrogen is a zero-carbon alternative to natural gas, which could be particularly valuable for those countries with extensive natural gas distribution networks, but many national energy system models examine neither hydrogen nor fuel cells for heating. There is a need to include hydrogen and fuel cell heating technologies in future scenario analyses, and for policymakers to take into account the full value of the potential contribution of hydrogen and fuel cells to low-carbon energy systems

Decommissioning of offshore oil and gas facilities: a comparative assessment of different scenarios

A material and energy flow analysis, with corresponding financial flows, was carried out for different decommissioning scenarios for the different elements of an offshore oil and gas structure. A comparative assessment was made of the non-financial (especially environmental) outcomes of the different scenarios, with the reference scenario being to leave all structures in situ, while other scenarios envisaged leaving them on the seabed or removing them to shore for recycling and disposal. The costs of each scenario, when compared with the reference scenario, give an implicit valuation of the non-financial outcomes (e.g. environmental improvements), should that scenario be adopted by society. The paper concludes that it is not clear that the removal of the topsides and jackets of large steel structures to shore, as currently required by regulations, is environmentally justified; that concrete structures should certainly be left in place; and that leaving footings, cuttings and pipelines in place, with subsequent monitoring, would also be justified unless very large values were placed by society on a clear seabed and trawling access