Inferring transition probabilities from repeated cross sections: a cross-level inference approach to US presidential voting

This paper outlines a nonstationary, heterogeneous Markov model designed to estimate entry and exit transition probabilities at the micro-level from a time series of independent cross-sectional samples with a binary outcomevariable. The model has its origins in the work of Moffitt (1993) and shares features with standard statistical methods for ecological inference. We show how ML estimates of the parameters can be obtained by the method-of-scoring, how to estimate time-varying covariate effects, and how to include non-backcastable variables in the model. The latter extension of the basic model is an important one as it strongly increases its potential application in a wide array of research contexts. The example illustration uses survey data on American presidential vote intentions from a five-wavepanel study conducted by Patterson (1980) in 1976. We treat the panel data as independent cross sections and compare the estimates of the Markov model with the observations in the panel. Directions for future work are discussed.Markov model;transition probabilities

Ecological panel inference in repeated cross sections

This paper presents a Markov chain model for the estimation of individual-level binary transitions from a time series of independent repeated cross-sectional (RCS) samples. Although RCS samples lack direct information on individual turnover, it is demonstrated here that it is possible with these data to draw meaningful conclusions on individual state-to-state transitions. We discuss estimation and inference using maximum likelihood, parametric bootstrap and Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches. The model is illustrated by an application to the rise in ownership of computers in Dutch households since 1986, using a 13-wave annual panel data set. These data encompass more information than we need to estimate the model, but this additional information allows us to assess the validity of the parameter estimates. We examine the determinants of the transitions from 'have-not' to 'have' (and back again) using well-known socio-economic and demographic covariates of the digital divide. Parametric bootstrap and Bayesian simulation are used to evaluate the accuracy and the precision of the ML estimates and the results are also compared with those of a first-order dynamic panel model. To mimic genuine repeated cross-sectional data, we additionally analyse samples of independent observations randomly drawn from the panel. Software implementing the model is available.

Vooroordelen van Nederlanders?

Contains fulltext : 3269.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access

Etnocentrisme in de Lage Landen: Opinies over 'eigen' en 'ander' volk in Nederland en Vlaanderen

Contains fulltext : 3304.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access

Etnocentrisme in Nederland: Veranderingen bij kansarme en/of gepriviligeerde groepen?

Contains fulltext : 3309.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access

Orthodox religious beliefs and anti-semitism: A replication of Glock and Stark in the Netherlands

Contains fulltext : 3359.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access

De achterban van extreem-rechts

Contains fulltext : 3792.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access

Trends in de links-rechts oriëntatie van de Nederlandse kiezers 1978-1995

Contains fulltext : 3293.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access

Het electoraat van extreem-rechts: Theoretische verklaringen, empirische bevindingen, conceptualiseringen en operationaliseringen

Contains fulltext : 3280.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access)Bijdrage aan de studiedag over "Extreem-rechts", Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek, 11 november 1994, Voorburg[24 p.

Klassepositie en autoritarisme: Hernieuwde toets van een klassieke hypothese

Contains fulltext : 3302.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access