Stabilization of Effective Exchange Rates Under Common Currency Basket Systems

We investigate the extent to which a common currency basket peg would stabilize effective exchange rates of East Asian currencies. We use an AMU (Asian Monetary Unit), which is a weighted average of ASEAN10 plus 3 (Japan, China, and Korea) currencies, as a common currency basket to investigate the stabilization effects. We compare our results with another result on stabilization effects of the common G3 currency (the US dollar, the Japanese yen, and the euro) basket in the East Asian countries (Williamson (2005)). We obtained the following results: first, the AMU peg system would be more effective in reducing fluctuations of the effective exchange rates as more countries applied the AMU peg system in East Asia. Second, the AMU peg system would more effectively stabilize the effective exchange rates than a common G-3 currency basket peg system for four (Indonesia, the Philippines, South Korea and Thailand) of the seven countries. The results suggest that the AMU basket peg would be useful for the East Asian countries whose trade weights on Japan are relatively higher than others.

Asian Monetary Unit and Monetary Cooperation in Asia

Regional monetary and financial cooperation in Asia has been discussed for years. To move towards a coordinated exchange rate policy, Ogawa and Shimizu (2005) proposed both an Asian Monetary Unit (AMU), which is a common currency basket computed as a weighted average of the thirteen ASEAN+3 currencies, and AMU Deviation Indicators (AMU DIs), which indicates the deviation of each Asian currency in terms of the AMU compared with the benchmark rate. The AMU and the AMU DIs are considered both as surveillance measures under the Chiang Mai Initiative and as benchmarks for coordinated exchange rate policies among Asian countries. In this paper, the authors show that monitoring the AMU and the AMU DIs plays an important role in the regional surveillance process under the Chiang Mai Initiative. By using daily and monthly data of AMU and AMU DIs for the period from January 2000 to June 2010, which are available from the website of the Research Institute of Economy, Trade, and Industry (RIETI), they examine their usefulness as a surveillance indicator. Our studies of AMU and AMU DIs confirm the following: first, an AMU peg system stabilizes the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) of each Asian country. Second, the AMU and the AMU DIs could signal overvaluation or undervaluation for each of the Asian currencies. Third, trade imbalances within the region have been growing as the AMU DIs have been widening. Fourth, the AMU DIs could predict huge capital inflows and outflows for each Asian country. The above findings support the usefulness of using the AMU and the AMU DIs as surveillance indicators for monetary cooperation in Asia.asian monetary unit; asian monetary cooperation; asian financial cooperation; chiang mai initiative; exchange rate policy; common currency basket; asian currencies

AMU Deviation Indicator for Coordinated Exchange Rate Policies in East Asia and its Relation with Effective Exchange Rates

The monetary authorities in East Asian countries have been strengthening their regional monetary cooperation since the Asian Currency Crisis in 1997. In this paper, we propose a deviation measurement for coordinated exchange rate policies in East Asia to enhance the monetary authorities' surveillance process for their regional monetary cooperation. We calculate the AMU as a weighted average of East Asian currencies following the method used to calculate the European Currency Unit (ECU) and the AMU Deviation Indicators, which how the degree of deviation from the hypothetical benchmark rate for each of the East Asian currencies in terms of the AMU. Furthermore, we investigate the relationships between the AMU and its Deviation Indicators and the effective exchange rates of each East Asian currency. As a result, we found the strong relationships between the AMU or the AMU Deviation Indicators and the effective exchange rates except for some currencies. These results indicate that the AMU Deviation Indicators have positive relationship with their effective exchange rates. Accordingly, we should monitor both the AMU and the AMU Deviation Indicator for the monetary authorities' surveillance in order to stabilize effective exchange rate in terms of trader partners'currencies.

AMU and Monetary Cooperation in Asia

Regional monetary and financial cooperation among the monetary authorities of Asian countries have been further strengthening through the recent global financial crisis in 2007-2008. Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors of the ASEAN Members States, People’s Republic of China (PRC), Japan and Korea (ASEAN plus three) and the monetary authority of Hong Kong, China announced that the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization (CMIM) agreement came into effect on March 24, 2010. They also reached agreement on establishing a surveillance office, which is called an ASEAN plus three Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) and would ensure technical details of regional surveillance. The regional monetary cooperation in Asia has been discussed for years. For example, Ogawa and Shimizu (2005) proposed both an Asian Monetary Unit (AMU), which is a common currency basket computed as a weighted average of the thirteen ASEAN plus three currencies, and AMU Deviation Indicators (AMU DIs), which indicates deviation of each Asian currency in terms of the AMU compared with the benchmark rate. The AMU and the AMU DIs are considered as both surveillance measures under the Chiang Mai Initiative and coordinated exchange rate policies among Asian countries. In this paper, we show that monitoring the AMU and the AMU DIs plays an important role in the regional surveillance process under the CMIM. By using daily and monthly data of AMU and AMU DIs in the period between January 2000 to June 2010, which are available in a website of the Research Institute of Economy, Trade, and Industry (RIETI), we examine their usefulness as a surveillance indicator. Our studies of AMU and AMU DIs confirm as follows: First, an AMU peg system stabilizes Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) of each Asian country. Second, the AMU and the AMU DIs could warn overvaluation or undervaluation for each of Asia currencies. Third, trade imbalances within the region have been growing as the AMU DIs have been widening. Forth, the AMU DIs could predict huge capital inflows and outflows for the Asian country. The above fact-findings support usefulness of using the AMU and the AMU DIs as surveillance indicators for monetary cooperation in Asia.regional monetary cooperation, common currency basket, Asian Monetary Unit

A Deviation Measurement for Coordinated Exchange Rate Policies in East Asia

The monetary authorities in East Asian countries have been strengthening their regional monetary cooperation since the Asian Currency Crisis in 1997. In this paper, we propose a deviation measurement for coordinated exchange rate policies in East Asia to enhance the monetary authorities' surveillance process for their regional monetary cooperation. We estimate an AMU (Asian Monetary Unit) as a weighted average of East Asian currencies according to the method to calculate the ECU used under the EMS before introducing the euro into some EU countries. We consider four types of AMU, which are based on trade volume, nominal GDP, GDP measured at PPP, and international reserves. After choosing both the AMUs based on GDP measured at PPP weight and trade weight from a viewpoint of stability of the AMU value in terms of a currency basket composed of the US dollar and the euro, we calculate the deviation indicators from the benchmark rates for each of the East Asian currencies. We compare both nominal and real deviation indicators by taking into account inflation rate differentials. The real deviation indicator should be adequate for surveillance over effects of exchange rate policy on real economy while the nominal one can be frequently watched in real time.