Is Globalization Today Really Different than Globalization a Hunderd Years Ago?

This paper pursues the comparison of economic integration today and pre 1914 for trade as well as finance, primarily for the United States but also with reference to the wider world. We establish the outlines of international integration a century ago and analyze the institutional and informational impediments that prevented the late nineteenth century world from achieving the same degree of integration as today. We conclude that the world today is different: commercial and financial integration before World War I was more limited. Given that integration today is even more pervasive than a hundred years ago, it is surprising that trade tensions and financial instability have not been worse in recent years. In the conclusion we point to the institutional innovations that have taken place in the past century as an explanation. This in turn suggests the way forward for national governments and multilaterals.

Five minutes with Barry Eichengreen: “We are a matter of weeks away from a Greek default unless a deal can be reached”

With no agreement yet reached between Greece and its creditors, there are doubts over whether the country will be able to make a scheduled debt repayment to the International Monetary Fund in early June. In an interview with EUROPP’s editor Stuart Brown, Barry Eichengreen discusses whether a compromise is still possible, what a default would mean for the country, and how well Europe is prepared for a potential Greek exit from the euro

The Slide to Protectionism in the Great Depression: Who Succumbed and Why?

The Great Depression was marked by a severe outbreak of protectionist trade policies. But contrary to the presumption that all countries scrambled to raise trade barriers, there was substantial cross-country variation in the movement to protectionism. Specifically, countries that remained on the gold standard resorted to tariffs, import quotas, and exchange controls to a greater extent than countries that went off gold. Gold standard countries chose to maintain their fixed exchange rate and reduce spending on imports rather than allow their currency to depreciate. Trade protection in the 1930s was less an instance of special interest politics than second-best macroeconomic policy when monetary and fiscal policies were constrained.

International Economic Policy: Was There a Bush Doctrine?

While many political scientists and diplomatic historians see the Bush presidency as a distinctive epoch in American foreign policy, we argue that there was no Bush Doctrine in foreign economic policy. The Bush administration sought to advance a free trade agenda but could not avoid the use of protectionist measures at home -- just like its predecessors. It foreswore bailouts of financially-distressed developing countries yet ultimately yielded to the perceived necessity of lending assistance -- just like its predecessors. Not unlike previous presidents, President Bush also maintained a stance of benign neglect toward the country's current account deficit. These continuities reflect long-standing structures and deeply embedded interests that the administration found impossible to resist. We see the next administration as having to address many of the same problems subject to the same constraints. The trade policy agenda will evolve slowly, with questions about the viability of multilateral liberalization under the WTO and the degree to which labor and environmental conditions can be included in trade agreements. Policy toward China will continue to confront difficult choices: even if it succeeds in pressuring the country to reduce its accumulation of dollar reserves, thereby easing the current account imbalance with the United States, this may only imply a more difficult market for U.S. Treasury debt and higher interest rates at home. Continuity will therefore remain the rule.

Emotions in Deaf and Hard-of-Hearing and Typically Hearing Children

For deaf and hard-of-hearing (DHH) children living in an environment where their access to linguistic input and social interactions is compromised, learning emotions could be difficult, which may further affect social functioning. To understand the role of emotion in DHH children’s social life, this study investigated emotional functioning (i.e., emotion recognition, empathy, emotion expression), and its relation with social functioning (i.e., social competence and externalizing behaviors), in 55 DHH children and 74 children with typical hearing (aged 3–10 years; M_{age} = 6.04). Parental reports on children’s emotional and social functioning and factors related to DHH children’s hearing were collected. Results showed similar levels of emotional and social functioning in children with and without hearing loss. Use of auditory intervention and speech perception did not correlate with any measures in DHH children. In both groups, higher levels of empathy related to higher social competence and fewer externalizing behaviors; emotion recognition and positive emotion expression were unrelated to either aspect of social functioning. Higher levels of negative emotion expression related to lower social competence in both groups, but to more externalizing behaviors in DHH children only. DHH children in less linguistically accessible environments may not have adequate knowledge for appropriately expressing negative emotions socially

Banking union in historical perspective: the initiative of the European Commission in the 1960s-1970s

This article shows that planning for the organization of EU banking regulation and supervision did not just appear on the agenda in recent years with discussions over the creation of the eurozone banking union. It unveils a hitherto neglected initiative of the European Commission in the 1960s and early 1970s. Drawing on extensive archival work, this article explains that this initiative, however, rested on a number of different assumptions, and emerged in a much different context. It first explains that the Commission's initial project was not crisis-driven; that it articulated the link between monetary integration and banking regulation; and finally that it did not set out to move the supervisory framework to the supranational level, unlike present-day developments

Trade Blocs, Currency Blocs and the Disintegration of World Trade in the 1930s

The dramatic implosion and regionalization of international trade during the 1930s has often been blamed on the trade and foreign exchange policies that emerged in the interwar period. We provide new evidence on the impact of trade and currency blocs on trade flows from 1928 1938 that suggests a blanket indictment of interwar trade policies and payments arrangements is not warranted. Discriminatory trade policies and international monetary arrangements had neither a uniformly favorable nor unfavorable implication for world trade; instead the balance of trade-creating and trade-diverting effects depended on the motivations of policymakers and hence on the structure of their policies. We find, for example, that British Commonwealth tariff preferences affected trade more significantly than the sterling-bloc currency area, but both promoted within-group trade without diverting trade away from non-members. Exchange controls and bilateral clearing arrangements enacted by German and Central and Eastern European countries, by contrast, dominated other commercial policies in altering trade patterns, but curtailed trade with non-members with no offsetting trade-creating effects. We also find support for Ragnar Nurkse 's famous hypothesis that exchange-rate volatility in the interwar period diminished trade. Our results speak to the emerging regional trade and currency areas of today, such as the North American Free Trade Agreement and the EC's Single Market and European Monetary System, and suggest that their impact lies not in the regional or global character of the policy initiative, but in the structure and design of the underlying policies.

The Role of History in Bilateral Trade Flows

This paper investigates the theory and evidence that history plays a role in shaping the direction of international trade. Because there are reasons to anticipate a positive correlation between the predominant direction of trade flows in the past and membership in preferential arrangements in the present, there may be a tendency to spuriously attribute to preferential arrangements the effects of historical factors and to exaggerate the influence of the former. Thus, the standard gravity-model formulation, which neglects the role of historical factors, suffers from omitted-variables bias. We illustrate these points by analyzing the evolution of trade between 1949 and 1964. We find that historical factors exercise an important influence on trade even after controlling for the arguments of the standard gravity model.

Sovereign debt restructuring : the judge, the vultures and creditor rights

What role did the US courts play in the Argentine debt swap of 2005? What implications does this have for the future of creditor rights in sovereign bond markets? The judge in the Argentine case has, it appears, deftly exploited creditor heterogeneity – between holdouts seeking capital gains and institutional investors wanting a settlement – to promote a swap with a supermajority of creditors. Our analysis of Argentine debt litigation reveals a ‘judge-mediated’ sovereign debt restructuring, which resolves the key issues of Transition and Aggregation - two of the tasks envisaged for the IMF’s still-born Sovereign Debt Restructuring Mechanism. For the future, we discuss how judge-mediated sovereign debt restructuring (together with creditor committees) could complement the alternative promoted by the US Treasury, namely collective action clauses in sovereign bond contracts