Are Crises Good for Long-Term Growth? The Role of Political Institutions

This paper provides empirical evidence for the importance of institutions in determining the outcome of crises on long-term growth. Once unobserved country-specific effects and other sources of endogeneity are accounted for, political institutions affect growth through their interaction with crises. The results suggest that only countries with strong democracies, high levels of political competition and external constraints on government can potentially benefit from crises and use them as opportunities to enhance long-term output per capita and productivity growth.

Debt Management in Latin America How Safe Is the New Debt Composition?

While public debt ratios in Latin America increased in 2009 amid the global financial crisis, they remain below levels reached following the Asian and Russian crises of the late 1990s. Moreover, debt composition has continued to shift towards -safer- debt (domestic debt with a higher prevalence of domestic currency liabilities). However, the current debt structure poses risks and policy challenges that should not be overlooked. Reviewing the latest available data on debt levels and composition for the region`s largest countries, this brief concludes that debt managers should avoid complacency in thinking that the region is completely redeemed from old sins. Particularly overlooked is that there does not yet exist in the region a large investor base for debt denominated in domestic currency at fixed nominal rates and reasonably long maturities.Debt management, Public debt, Living with debt

The Aftermath of Natural Disasters: Beyond Destruction

Naturkatastrophe; Makroökonomischer Einfluss; Soziale Kosten; Wirtschaftliche Anpassung; Welt

Trade, gravity, and sudden stops: On how commercial trade can increase the stability of capital flows

Financial stability is an important policy objective since crises are associated with big economic, social, and political costs. Promoting stability requires preventing 'sudden stops' in capital flows, which are events in which foreign financing abruptly disappears. This paper contributes to the discussion by providing new theoretical and empirical evidence on the causal connection between lack of exposure to commercial trade and proclivity to sudden stops. On the theoretical front, I show how exposure to trade raises the creditworthiness of countries and reduces the probability of sudden stops. In relatively closed economies, sudden stops (when they occur) are more harmful, and thus the option to default on the inherited debt is more attractive. Therefore, conditional on the amount that lenders are willing to loan, decreased exposure to trade increases the likelihood of default. A sudden stop takes place when the borrowers reject the amount that lenders want to loan: They receive no new funding, and they concurrently default on the outstanding debt to 'ease the pain.' This proposition is tested using 'gravity estimates,' which are based on countries' geographic characteristics as appropriate instruments for trade. The results indicate that, all else equal, a 10 percentage point decrease in the trade-to-gross domestic product ratio increases the probability of a sudden stop between 30 percent and 40 percent. The policy implications are unambiguous: Increasing the tradable component of a country's GDP will, ceteris paribus, reduce the vulnerability of that country to sudden stops in capital flows

The Economics of Natural Disasters - A Survey

Catastrophes caused by natural disasters are by no means new, yet our evolving understanding regarding their relevance to economic development and growth is still at its infancy. In order to facilitate further necessary research on this topic, we summarize the state of the economic literature that examines the aggregate impact of disasters. We review the main disaster data sources available, discuss the determinants of the direct effects of disasters, and distinguish between the short- and long-run indirect effects. After reviewing these literatures, we examine some of the relevant policy questions, and follow up with projections about the future likelihood of disasters, while paying particular attention to the projected climate change. We end by identifying several significant gaps in this literature.natural disasters, climate change, growth

La Sostenibilidad de Deuda frente a Riesgo de Catastrofes Naturales

Los desastres naturales son una importante fuente de vulnerabilidad en la región del Caribe. A pesar de ser una de las regiones del mundo con más altas probabilidades de desastres naturales, el Caribe tiene los niveles más bajos de cobertura de seguro. Este articulo examina la vulnerabilidad de las finanzas publicas de Belice debido a la alta ocurrencia de huracanes. El artículo estudia el potencial de instrumentos de aseguración que podrían reducir la vulnerabilidad a estos desastres naturales. Este estudio encuentra que el seguro de Riesgos Catastróficos mejora la sostenibilidad de la deuda del gobierno de Belice. La metodología aplicada por el estudio hace posible estimar el nivel apropiado de cobertura de seguro apropiado. Para el caso de Belice, es como máximo, US$120 millones por año. Organizaciones internacionales pueden jugar un papel importante en asistir a los países a sobrellevar las distorsiones de los mercados de seguros, como también en ayudar a disminuir la resistencia política interna contra la aplicación de esta póliza.

The Economics of Natural Disasters: A Survey

Catastrophes caused by natural disasters are by no means new, yet the evolving understanding of their relevance to economic development and growth is still in its infancy. In order to facilitate further necessary research on this topic, this paper summarizes the state of the economic literature examining the aggregate impact of disasters. The paper reviews the main disaster data sources available, discusses the determinants of the direct effects of disasters, and distinguishes between short- and long-run indirect effects. The paper then examines some of the relevant policy questions and follows up with projections about the likelihood of future disasters, while paying particular attention to climate change. The paper ends by identifying several significant gaps in the literature.Natural disasters, Climate change, Growth

Debt Sustainability Under Catastrophic Risk: The Case for Government Budget Insurance

Natural disasters are an important source of vulnerability in the Caribbean region. Despite being one of the more disaster-prone areas of the world, it has the lowest levels of insurance coverage. This paper examines the vulnerability of Belize’s public finance to the occurrence of hurricanes and the potential impact of insurance instruments in reducing that vulnerability. The paper finds that catastrophic risk insurance significantly improves Belize’s debt sustainability. In addition, the methodology employed makes it possible to estimate the appropriate level of insurance, which for the case of Belize is a maximum coverage of US$120 million per year. International organizations can play a role in assisting countries to overcome distortions in insurance markets, as well as in helping to relax internal political resistance to the purchase of insurance policies.

Quid pro Quo: National Institutions and Sudden Stops in International Capital Movements

The paper explores the incidence of sudden stops in capital flows on the incentives for building national institutions that secure property rights in a world where sovereign defaults are possible equilibrium outcomes. Also thepaper builds upon the benchmark model of sovereign default and direct creditor sanctions by Obstfeld and Rogoff (1996). In their model it is in the debtor country’s interest to “tie its hands” and secure the property rights of lenders as much as possible because this enhances the credibility of the country’s romise to repay and prevents default altogether. It incorporate two key features of today’s international financial markets that are absent from the benchmark model: the possibility that lenders can trigger sudden stops in capital movements, and debt contracts in which lenders transfer resources to the country at the start of the period, which have to be repaid later. The papershows that under these conditions the advice “build institutions to secure repayment at all costs” may be very bad advice indeed.

The Determinants of Corporate Risk in Emerging Markets: An Option-Adjusted Spread Analysis

This study explores the determinants of corporate bond spreads in emerging market economies. Using a largely unexploited dataset, the paper finds that corporate bond spreads are determined by firm-specific variables, bond characteristics, macroeconomic conditions, sovereign risk, and global factors. A variance decomposition analysis shows that firm-level characteristics account for the larger share of the variance. In addition, the paper finds two asymmetries. The first is in line the sovereign ceiling “lite” hypothesis which states that the transfer of risk from the sovereign to the private sector is less than 1 to 1. The second is consistent with the popular notion that panics are common in emerging markets where investors are less informed and more prone to herding.