Modeling the radial abundance distribution of the transition galaxy ngc 1313

NGC 1313 is the most massive disk galaxy showing a flat radial abundance distribution in its interstellar gas, a behavior generally observed in magellanic and irregular galaxies. We have attempted to reproduce this flat abundance distribution using a multiphase chemical evolution model, which has been previously used sucessfully to depict other spiral galaxies along the Hubble morphological sequence. We found that it is not possible to reproduce the flat radial abundance distribution in NGC 1313, and at the same time, be consistent with observed radial distributions of other key parameters such the surface gas density and star formation profiles. We conclude that a more complicated galactic evolution model including radial flows, and possibly mass loss due to supernova explosions and winds, is necessary to explain the apparent chemical uniformity of the disk of NGC 1313Comment: 14 paginas, 4 figures, to be published in ApJ, apri

An Old Cluster in NGC 6822

We present spectroscopy of two clusters in the dwarf irregular galaxy NGC 6822. From these we deduce an age for Cluster VII of 11 Gyr and [Fe/H] = -1.95 +/- 0.15 dex. Cluster VII appears to be an analog of the metal-poor galactic globular clusters. Cluster VI is found to be much younger and more metal rich, with an age of approximately 2 Gyr. Its derived metallicity, [Fe/H], of approximately -1.0 dex is comparable to that of the gas seen today in NGC 6822. The existence of a metal-poor old cluster in NGC 6822 rules out models for the chemical evolution of this galaxy with significant prompt initial enhancement. We find that a star formation rate which is constant with time and is within a factor of two of the present star formation rate can reproduce the two points on the age-metallicity relationship for NGC 6822 over the past 10 Gyr defined by these two clusters.Comment: 8 pages; accepted for publication in A

Metallicity Evolution of Damped Lyman-Alpha Galaxies

We have reanalyzed the existing data on Zinc abundances in damped Ly-alpha (DLA) absorbers to investigate whether their mean metallicity evolves with time. Most models of cosmic chemical evolution predict that the mass- weighted mean interstellar metallicity of galaxies should rise with time from a low value ~ 1/30 solar at z ~ 3 to a nearly solar value at z ~ 0. However, several previous analyses have suggested that there is little or no evolution in the global metallicity of DLAs. We have used a variety of statistical techniques to quantify the global metallicity-redshift relation and its uncertainties, taking into account both measurement and sampling errors. Three new features of our analysis are: (a) an unbinned N(H I)-weighted nonlinear chi-square fit to an exponential relation; (b) survival analysis to treat the large number of limits in the existing data; and (c) a comparison of the data with several models of cosmic chemical evolution based on an unbinned N(H I)-weighted chi-square. We find that a wider range of evolutionary rates is allowed by the present data than claimed in previous studies. The slope of the exponential fit to the N(H I)-weighted mean Zn metallicity vs. redshift relation is -0.20 plus minus 0.11 counting limits as detections and -0.27 plus minus 0.12 counting limits as zeros. Similar results are also obtained if the data are binned in redshift, and if survival analysis is used. These slopes are marginally consistent with no evolution, but are also consistent with the rates predicted by several models of cosmic chemical evolution. Finally, we outline some future measurements necessary to improve the statistics of the global metallicity-redshift relation.Comment: 25 pages, 1 figure, accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journa

A study of blood contamination of Siqveland matrix bands

AIMS To use a sensitive forensic test to measure blood contamination of used Siqveland matrix bands following routine cleaning and sterilisation procedures in general dental practice. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Sixteen general dental practices in the West of Scotland participated. Details of instrument cleaning procedures were recorded for each practice. A total of 133 Siqveland matrix bands were recovered following cleaning and sterilisation and were examined for residual blood contamination by the Kastle-Meyer test, a well-recognised forensic technique. RESULTS: Ultrasonic baths were used for the cleaning of 62 (47%) bands and retainers and the remainder (53%) were hand scrubbed prior to autoclaving. Overall, 21% of the matrix bands and 19% of the retainers gave a positive Kastle-Meyer test, indicative of residual blood contamination, following cleaning and sterilisation. In relation to cleaning method, 34% of hand-scrubbed bands and 32% of hand-scrubbed retainers were positive for residual blood by the Kastle-Meyer test compared with 6% and 3% respectively of ultrasonically cleaned bands and retainers (P less than 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: If Siqveland matrix bands are re-processed in the assembled state, then adequate pre-sterilisation cleaning cannot be achieved reliably. Ultrasonic baths are significantly more effective than hand cleaning for these items of equipment

The dicey dinner dilemma : asymmetry in predator-prey risk-taking, a broadly-applicable alternative to the life-dinner principle

RKH is grateful to both the University of St Andrews and the Perry Foundation for funding.Forty years ago, the ‘life‐dinner principle’ was proposed as an example of an asymmetry that may lead prey species to experience stronger selection than their predators, thus accounting for the high frequency with which prey escape alive from interaction with a predator. This principle remains an influential concept in the scientific literature, despite several works suggesting that the concept relies on many under‐appreciated assumptions and does not apply as generally as was initially proposed. Here, we present a novel model describing a very different asymmetry to that proposed in the life‐dinner principle, but one that could apply broadly. We argue that asymmetries between the relative costs and benefits to predators and prey of selecting a risky behaviour during an extended predator–prey encounter could lead to an enhanced likelihood of escape for the prey. Any resulting advantage to prey depends upon there being a behaviour or choice that introduces some inherent danger to both predator and prey if they adopt it, but which if the prey adopts the predator must match in order to have a chance of successful predation. We suggest that the circumstances indicated by our model could apply broadly across diverse taxa, including both risky spatial or behavioural choices.PostprintPeer reviewe

Modelling the impact of local reactive school closures on critical care provision during an influenza pandemic

Despite the fact that the 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza strain was less severe than had been feared, both seasonal epidemics of influenza-like-illness and future influenza pandemics have the potential to place a serious burden on health services. The closure of schools has been postulated as a means of reducing transmission between children and hence reducing the number of cases at the peak of an epidemic; this is supported by the marked reduction in cases during school holidays observed across the world during the 2009 pandemic. However, a national policy of long-duration school closures could have severe economic costs. Reactive short-duration closure of schools in regions where health services are close to capacity offers a potential compromise, but it is unclear over what spatial scale and time frame closures would need to be made to be effective. Here, using detailed geographical information for England, we assess how localized school closures could alleviate the burden on hospital intensive care units (ICUs) that are reaching capacity. We show that, for a range of epidemiologically plausible assumptions, considerable local coordination of school closures is needed to achieve a substantial reduction in the number of hospitals where capacity is exceeded at the peak of the epidemic. The heterogeneity in demand per hospital ICU bed means that even widespread school closures are unlikely to have an impact on whether demand will exceed capacity for many hospitals. These results support the UK decision not to use localized school closures as a control mechanism, but have far wider international public-health implications. The spatial heterogeneities in both population density and hospital capacity that give rise to our results exist in many developed countries, while our model assumptions are sufficiently general to cover a wide range of pathogens. This leads us to believe that when a pandemic has severe implications for ICU capacity, only widespread school closures (with their associated costs and organizational challenges) are sufficient to mitigate the burden on the worst-affected hospitals

Congestion management with aggregated delivery of flexibility using distributed energy resources

Increasing penetrations of small scale electricity generation and storage technologies are making an important contribution to the decentralisation and decarbonisation of power system control and operation. Although not currently realised, coordination of local distributed energy resources (DERs) and a greater degree of demand flexibility through digital aggregation, offer the potential to lower the cost of energy at source and to enable remuneration for consumer participation, addressing the rising costs of energy supply, which impacts strongly on all consumers. Methods are required to manage potential distribution network constraints caused by flexible DERs, as well as for determining the risk to delivery of flexibility from these DERs for aggregators. A heuristic network flexibility dispatch methodology is proposed, which can be used to calculate the probability of constraints, and any required adjustments of flexible agent positions to resolve them, at half hourly resolution. The aggregator can use this methodology to manage their portfolio risk, while a distribution system operator can estimate required flexibility to manage constraints down to low voltage level