Stratospheric Relaxation in IMPACT's Radiation Code

While Impact incorporates diagnostic radiation routines from our work in previous years, it has not previously included the stratospheric relaxation required for forcing calculations. We have now implemented the necessary changes for stratospheric relaxation, tested its stability, and compared the results with stratosphere temperatures obtained from CAM3 met data. The relaxation results in stable temperature profiles in the stratosphere, which is encouraging for use in forcing calculations. It does, however, produce a cooling bias when compared to CAM3, which appears to be due to differences in radiation calculations rather than the interactive treatment of ozone. The cause of this bias is unclear as yet, but seems to be systematic and hence cancels out when differences are taken relative to a control simulation

How not to attack intelligent design creationism: philosophical misconceptions about methodological naturalism

In recent controversies about Intelligent Design Creationism (IDC), the principle of methodological naturalism (MN) has played an important role. In this paper, an often neglected distinction is made between two different conceptions of MN, each with its respective rationale and with a different view on the proper role of MN in science. According to one popular conception, MN is a self-imposed or intrinsic limitation of science, which means that science is simply not equipped to deal with claims of the supernatural (Intrinsic MN or IMN). Alternatively, we will defend MN as a provisory and empirically grounded attitude of scientists, which is justified in virtue of the consistent success of naturalistic explanations and the lack of success of supernatural explanations in the history of science (Provisory MN or PMN). Science does have a bearing on supernatural hypotheses, and its verdict is uniformly negative. We will discuss five arguments that have been proposed in support of IMN: the argument from the definition of science, the argument from lawful regularity, the science stopper argument, the argument from procedural necessity, and the testability argument. We conclude that IMN, because of its philosophical flaws, proves to be an ill-advised strategy to counter the claims of IDC. Evolutionary scientists are on firmer ground if they discard supernatural explanations on purely evidential grounds, instead of ruling them out by philosophical fiat

A critical review of smaller state diplomacy

In The Peloponnesian War, Thucydides (1972: 402) highlights the effects of the general, overall weakness of smaller states vis-à-vis larger, more powerful ones in a key passage, where the Athenians remind the Melians that: “… since you know as well as we do that, as the world goes, right is only in question between equals in power. Meanwhile, the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.” Concerns about the vulnerability of small, weak, isolated states have echoed throughout history: from Thucydides, through the review by Machiavelli (1985) of the risks of inviting great powers to intervene in domestic affairs, through 20th century US-led contemporary political science (Vital, 1971; Handel, 1990) and Commonwealth led scholarship (Commonwealth Secretariat, 1985). In the context of 20th century ‘Balkanization’, the small state could also prove unstable, even hostile and uncooperative, a situation tempting enough to invite the intrusion of more powerful neighbours: a combination, according to Brzezinski (1997: 123-124) of a power vacuum and a corollary power suction2: in the outcome, if the small state is ‘absorbed’, it would be its fault, and its destiny, in the grand scheme of things. In an excellent review of small states in the context of the global politics of development, Payne (2004: 623, 634) concludes that “vulnerabilities rather than opportunities are the most striking consequence of smallness”. It has been recently claimed that, since they cannot defend or represent themselves adequately, small states “lack real independence, which makes them suboptimal participants in the international system” (Hagalin, 2005: 1). There is however, a less notable and acknowledged but more extraordinary strand of argumentation that considers ‘the power of powerlessness’, and the ability of small states to exploit their smaller size in a variety of ways in order to achieve their intended, even if unlikely, policy outcomes. The pursuance of smaller state goals becomes paradoxically acceptable and achievable precisely because such smaller states do not have the power to leverage disputants or pursue their own agenda. A case in point concerns the smallest state of all, the Vatican, whose powers are both unique and ambiguous, but certainly not insignificant (The Economist, 2007). Smaller states have “punched above their weight” (e.g. Edis, 1991); and, intermittently, political scientists confront their “amazing intractability” (e.g. Suhrke, 1973: 508). Henry Kissinger (1982: 172) referred to this stance, with obvious contempt, as “the tyranny of the weak”3. This paper seeks a safe passage through these two, equally reductionist, propositions. It deliberately focuses first on a comparative case analysis of two, distinct ‘small state-big state’ contests drawn from the 1970s, seeking to infer and tease out the conditions that enable smaller ‘Lilliputian’ states (whether often or rarely) to beat their respective Goliaths. The discussion is then taken forward to examine whether similar tactics can work in relation to contemporary concerns with environmental vulnerability, with a focus on two other, small island states. Before that, the semiotics of ‘the small state’ need to be explored, since they are suggestive of the perceptions and expectations that are harboured by decision makers at home and abroad and which tend towards the self-fulfilling prophecy.peer-reviewe

Grist to the Mill of Anti-evolutionism: The Failed Strategy of Ruling the Supernatural Out of Science by Philosophical Fiat

According to a widespread philosophical opinion, science is strictly limited to investigating natural causes and putting forth natural explanations. Lacking the tools to evaluate supernatural claims, science must remain studiously neutral on questions of metaphysics. This (self-imposed) stricture, which goes under the name of ‘methodological naturalism’, allows science to be divorced from metaphysical naturalism or atheism, which many people tend to associate with it. However, ruling the supernatural out of science by fiat is not only philosophically untenable, it actually provides grist to the mill of anti-evolutionism. The philosophical flaws in this conception of methodological naturalism have been gratefully exploited by advocates of Intelligent Design Creationism to bolster their false accusations of naturalistic bias and dogmatism on the part of modern science. We argue that it promotes a misleading view of the scientific endeavor and is at odds with the foremost arguments for evolution by natural selection. Reconciling science and religion on the basis of such methodological strictures is therefore misguided

Impact of Intraoperative Parathyroid Hormone Monitoring on the Prediction of Multiglandular Parathyroid Disease

Optimal interpretation of the results of intraoperative parathyroid hormone (IOPTH) monitoring during neck exploration for primary hyperparathyroidism (pHPT) is still controversial. The reliability of the “50% rule” in multiglandular disease (MGD) is often disputed, mostly because of competing pathophysiologic paradigms. The aim of this study was to ascertain and corroborate the ability of IOPTH monitoring to detect MGD in a practice, combining conventional and alternative parathyroidectomy techniques. This is a retrospective single institution analysis of 69 consecutive patients undergoing cervical exploration for pHPT by various approaches. The IOPTH measurements were performed after induction of anesthesia but prior to skin incision and 10 minutes after excision of the first visualized enlarged parathyroid gland. In this series, 55 patients (80%) had single adenomas, and 14 patients (20%) had MGD. In 8 of the 14 patients with MGD, IOPTH levels were obtained sequentially after removal of every enlarged gland. Of these 8 patients, 6 (75%) had a false-positive decrease (decrease below 50% of baseline value in presence of another enlarged gland) failing to predict the presence of a second enlarged gland. In 2 cases IOPTH monitoring provided a true-negative result, correctly predicting MGD. If MGD is defined by gross morphologic criteria, IOPTH monitoring fails to predict the presence of MGD reliably. However, if MGD is defined by functional criteria, the course of these patients does not seem significantly affected. The importance of these findings must be further investigated, especially with regard to the outcome of minimally invasive parathyroid procedures.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/41301/1/268_2003_Article_7255.pd

Update on the Radiation Code in IMPACT: Clouds, Heating Rates, and Comparisons

This is a summary of work done over two months in the summer of 2005, which was devoted to improving the radiation code of IMPACT, the LLNL 3D global atmospheric chemistry and aerosol model. Most of the work concerned the addition and testing of new cloud optical property routines designed to work with CAM3 meteorological data, and the comparison of CAM3 with the results of IMPACT runs using meteorological data from CAM3 and MACCM3. Additional related work done in the course of these main tasks will be described as necessary