Budget impact and cost-effectiveness analyses of the COBRA-BPS multicomponent hypertension management programme in rural communities in Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka.

BACKGROUND: COBRA-BPS (Control of Blood Pressure and Risk Attenuation-Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka), a multi-component hypertension management programme that is led by community health workers, has been shown to be efficacious at reducing systolic blood pressure in rural communities in Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. In this study, we aimed to assess the budget required to scale up the programme and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. METHODS: In a cluster-randomised trial of COBRA-BPS, individuals aged 40 years or older with hypertension who lived in 30 rural communities in Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka were deemed eligible for inclusion. Costs were quantified prospectively at baseline and during 2 years of the trial. All costs, including labour, rental, materials and supplies, and contracted services were recorded, stratified by programme activity. Incremental costs of scaling up COBRA-BPS to all eligible adults in areas covered by community health workers were estimated from the health ministry (public payer) perspective. FINDINGS: Between April 1, 2016, and Feb 28, 2017, 11 510 individuals were screened and 2645 were enrolled and included in the study. Participants were examined between May 8, 2016, and March 31, 2019. The first-year per-participant costs for COBRA-BPS were US$10·65 for Bangladesh,$10·25 for Pakistan, and $6·42 for Sri Lanka. Per-capita costs were$0·63 for Bangladesh, $0·29 for Pakistan, and$1·03 for Sri Lanka. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were $3430 for Bangladesh,$2270 for Pakistan, and $4080 for Sri Lanka, per cardiovascular disability-adjusted life year averted, which showed COBRA-BPS to be cost-effective in all three countries relative to the WHO-CHOICE threshold of three times gross domestic product per capita in each country. Using this threshold, the cost-effectiveness acceptability curves predicted that the probability of COBRA-BPS being cost-effective is 79·3% in Bangladesh, 85·2% in Pakistan, and 99·8% in Sri Lanka. INTERPRETATION: The low cost of scale-up and the cost-effectiveness of COBRA-BPS suggest that this programme is a viable strategy for responding to the growing cardiovascular disease epidemic in rural communities in low-income and middle-income countries where community health workers are present, and that it should qualify as a priority intervention across rural settings in south Asia and in other countries with similar demographics and health systems to those examined in this study. FUNDING: The UK Department of Health and Social Care, the UK Department for International Development, the Global Challenges Research Fund, the UK Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust

Climate change, malaria and neglected tropical diseases: a scoping review

To explore the effects of climate change on malaria and 20 neglected tropical diseases (NTDs), and potential effect amelioration through mitigation and adaptation, we searched for papers published from January 2010 to October 2023. We descriptively synthesised extracted data. We analysed numbers of papers meeting our inclusion criteria by country and national disease burden, healthcare access and quality index (HAQI), as well as by climate vulnerability score. From 42 693 retrieved records, 1543 full-text papers were assessed. Of 511 papers meeting the inclusion criteria, 185 studied malaria, 181 dengue and chikungunya and 53 leishmaniasis; other NTDs were relatively understudied. Mitigation was considered in 174 papers (34%) and adaption strategies in 24 (5%). Amplitude and direction of effects of climate change on malaria and NTDs are likely to vary by disease and location, be non-linear and evolve over time. Available analyses do not allow confident prediction of the overall global impact of climate change on these diseases. For dengue and chikungunya and the group of non-vector-borne NTDs, the literature privileged consideration of current low-burden countries with a high HAQI. No leishmaniasis papers considered outcomes in East Africa. Comprehensive, collaborative and standardised modelling efforts are needed to better understand how climate change will directly and indirectly affect malaria and NTDs

Climate change, malaria and neglected tropical diseases: a scoping review

To explore the effects of climate change on malaria and 20 neglected tropical diseases (NTDs), and potential effect amelioration through mitigation and adaptation, we searched for papers published from January 2010 to October 2023. We descriptively synthesised extracted data. We analysed numbers of papers meeting our inclusion criteria by country and national disease burden, healthcare access and quality index (HAQI), as well as by climate vulnerability score. From 42 693 retrieved records, 1543 full-text papers were assessed. Of 511 papers meeting the inclusion criteria, 185 studied malaria, 181 dengue and chikungunya and 53 leishmaniasis; other NTDs were relatively understudied. Mitigation was considered in 174 papers (34%) and adaption strategies in 24 (5%). Amplitude and direction of effects of climate change on malaria and NTDs are likely to vary by disease and location, be non-linear and evolve over time. Available analyses do not allow confident prediction of the overall global impact of climate change on these diseases. For dengue and chikungunya and the group of non-vector-borne NTDs, the literature privileged consideration of current low-burden countries with a high HAQI. No leishmaniasis papers considered outcomes in East Africa. Comprehensive, collaborative and standardised modelling efforts are needed to better understand how climate change will directly and indirectly affect malaria and NTDs

Risk of low birth weight on adulthood hypertension - evidence from a tertiary care hospital in a South Asian country, Sri Lanka: a retrospective cohort study

Abstract Background Although low birth weight (LBW) is common in South Asian region there are not many studies being done to evaluate LBW and adulthood hypertension association in this region, including in Sri Lanka. Although this association has been studied in other regions, most studies have not evaluated this association in the presence of socioeconomic and lifestyle factors. This study was conducted to investigate whether low birth weight (LBW) is associated with adulthood hypertension after adjusting for other potential risk factors of hypertension. Methods Nearly 15,000 individuals born during 1950 to 1965 were selected and invitations were sent to their original addresses. Out of them 217 individuals responded and among them birth weight was recovered for 122 individuals. Separate linear logistic models were fitted to model high systolic blood pressure (SBP: systolic blood pressure > 140 mmHg), high diastolic blood pressure (DBP: diastolic blood pressure > 90 mmHg) and hypertension (either SBP > 140 mmHg or DBP > 90 mmHg). Results Separate linear logistic model fitting revealed LBW having a significant association with high SBP (OR = 2.89; 95% CI: 1.01 to 8.25; P = 0.04), and hypertension (OR = 3.15; 95% CI: 1.17 to 9.35; P = 0.03), but not with high DBP (OR = 0.75; 95% CI: 0.22 to 2.16; P = 0.62), when effect of LBW was studied after adjusting for all other potential risk factors. Conclusions LBW has a tendency to cause high adult blood pressure in South Asian region, and the findings are consistent with previous work on LBW and adulthood hypertension association in other regions of the world

Neoadjuvant Chemoradiation for Rectal Cancer Achieves Satisfactory Tumour Regression and Local Recurrence – Result of a Dedicated Multi-disciplinary Approach from a South Asian Centre

Abstract Background Pre-operative long-course chemoradiotherapy (CRT) for rectal cancer has resulted in improvement in rates of restorative rectal resection and local recurrence by inducing tumour downstaging and downsizing. Total mesorectal excision (TME) is a standardised surgical technique of low anterior resection aimed at the prevention of local tumour recurrence. The purpose of this study was to evaluate tumour response following CRT in a standardised group of patients with rectal cancer. Methods One hundred and thirty-one patients (79 male; 52 female, median age 57; interquartile range 47–62 years) of 153 with rectal cancer who underwent pre-operative long-course CRT were treated by standardised open low anterior resection at a median of 10 weeks post-CRT. Sixteen of 131 (12%) were 70 years or older. Median follow-up at the time of analysis was 15 months (interquartile range 6–45 months). Pathology reports were analysed based on AJCC-UICC classification using the TNM system. Data recorded were overall/subgrades of tumour regression; good, moderate or poor, lymph node harvest, local recurrence, disease-free and overall survival using standard statistical methods. Results 78% showed tumour regression post-CRT; 43% displayed good tumour regression/response while 22% had poor tumour regression/response. All patients had a pre-operative T-stage of either T3 or T4. Post-operation, good responders had a median T stage of T2 vs. T3 in poor responders (P = 0.0002). Overall, the median lymph node harvest was < 12. There was no difference in the number of nodes harvested in good vs. poor responders (Good/moderate-6 nodes vs. Poor- 8; P = 0.31). Good responders tended to have a lesser number of malignant nodes vs. poor responders (P = 0.31). Overall, local recurrence was 6.8% and the anal sphincter preservation rate was 89%. Predicted 5-year disease-free and overall survival were similar between good and poor responders. Conclusion Long-course CRT resulted in satisfactory tumour regression and enabled consideration for safe, sphincter-saving resection in rectal cancer. A dedicated multi-disciplinary team approach achieved a global benchmark for local recurrence in a resource-limited setting

Budget impact and cost-effectiveness analyses of the COBRA-BPS multicomponent hypertension management programme in rural communities in Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka

10.1016/S2214-109X(21)00033-4LANCET GLOBAL HEALTH95E660-E66

Non-resolution of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) among urban, adult Sri Lankans in the general population: A prospective, cohort follow-up study.

BACKGROUND:There are few studies investigating the natural course of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in the community. We assessed resolution of NAFLD in a general population cohort of urban Sri Lankans adults. METHODS:Participants were selected by age-stratified random sampling from electoral lists. They were initially screened in 2007 and re-evaluated in 2014. On both occasions structured interview, anthropometric-measurements, liver ultrasonography, and biochemical/serological tests were performed. NAFLD was diagnosed on ultrasound criteria for fatty liver, safe-alcohol consumption (<14-units/week for men, <7-units/week for women) and absence of hepatitis B/C markers. Non-NAFLD was diagnosed on absence of any ultrasound criteria for fatty liver and safe-alcohol consumption. Resolution of NAFLD was defined as absence of ultrasound criteria for fatty liver. Changes in anthropometric indices [Weight, Body-Mass-Index (BMI), waist-circumference (WC), waist-hip ratio (WHR)], clinical [systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP)] and biochemical measurements [Triglycerides (TG), High Density Lipoprotein (HDL), Total Cholesterol (TC), HbA1c%] at baseline and follow-up were compared. RESULTS:Of the 2985 original study participants, 2148 (71.9%) attended follow-up after 7 years. This included 705 who had NAFLD in 2007 and 834 who did not have NAFLD in 2007. Out of 705 who had NAFLD in 2007, 11(1.6%) changed their NAFLD status due to excess alcohol consumption. After controlling for baseline values, NAFLD patients showed significant reduction in BMI, weight, WHR, HDL and TC levels and increase in HbA1c levels compared to non-NAFLD people. Despite this, none of them had complete resolution of NAFLD. CONCLUSION:We did not find resolution of NAFLD in this general population cohort. The observed improvements in anthropometric, clinical and biochemical measurements were inadequate for resolution of NAFLD