世界的な石炭火力発電のフェーズアウトへの長く曲がりくねった道：国際融資および将来のロックインの動向

要約のみTohoku University松八重一代課

Forecasting coal power plant retirement ages and lock-in with random forest regression

Averting dangerous climate change requires expediting the retirement of coal-fired power plants (CFPPs). Given multiple barriers hampering this, here we forecast the future retirement ages of the world’s CFPPs. We use supervised machine learning to first learn from the past, determining the factors that influenced historical retirements. We then apply our model to a dataset of 6, 541 operating or under-construction units in 66 countries. Based on results, we also forecast associated carbon emissions and the degree to which countries are locked in to coal power. Contrasting with the historical average of roughly 40 years over 2010–2021, our model forecasts earlier retirement for 63% of current CFPP units. This results in 38% less emissions than if assuming historical retirement trends. However, the lock-in index forecasts considerable difficulties to retire CFPPs early in countries with high dependence on coal power, a large capacity or number of units, and young plant ages

Understanding the Multi-Faceted Drivers of Increasing Coal Consumption in Indonesia

To meet the Paris Agreement’s climate mitigation objectives, there is an urgent global need to reduce coal combustion. Yet coal usage, particularly in the power sector, is rising in many developing countries. Indonesia is a notable example. While government policy is widely considered as the principle driver of Indonesia’s increasing coal consumption, studies have largely overlooked the influence of socioeconomic forces. To understand these effects, we utilize a decomposition analysis to capture the individual effect of five drivers of coal consumption in Indonesia over 1965 to 2017: (1) the energy mix, (2) energy intensity of GDP, (3) population, (4) urbanization, and (5) urban incomes. Results show the energy mix has exerted the largest effect on coal consumption. In addition, by accounting for other socio-economic influences, we found that other less appreciated factors have contributed to rising coal consumption. In order of contribution these were the urban economic effect, the growing relative share of urban population, and the population increase itself in absolute terms. We thus demonstrate that the drivers of growing coal consumption are multi-faced, complex and intertwined. Our findings show that developing nations such as Indonesia share a need to decouple urban population growth and increasing per capita wealth from fossil fuel (and coal) emissions

Forecasting coal power plant retirement ages and lock-in with random forest regression

Averting dangerous climate change requires expediting the retirement of coal-fired power plants (CFPPs). Given multiple barriers hampering this, here we forecast the future retirement ages of the world’s CFPPs. We use supervised machine learning to first learn from the past, determining the factors that influenced historical retirements. We then apply our model to a dataset of 6, 541 operating or under-construction units in 66 countries. Based on results, we also forecast associated carbon emissions and the degree to which countries are locked in to coal power. Contrasting with the historical average of roughly 40 years over 2010–2021, our model forecasts earlier retirement for 63% of current CFPP units. This results in 38% less emissions than if assuming historical retirement trends. However, the lock-in index forecasts considerable difficulties to retire CFPPs early in countries with high dependence on coal power, a large capacity or number of units, and young plant ages

Toward a Coherent Policy Approach to Solar Uptake in Southeast Asia: Insight from Indonesia and Vietnam

This chapter examines Indonesia and Vietnam’s experiences with adopting utility-scale solar power, finding that despite landscape pressures, such as the need to address energy security concerns and policy commitments to emissions reduction, challenges in local contexts and incumbent electricity regime often hindering translating these pressures into action. It also highlights the need for a coherent policy framework that can address both the emergence and wider adoption of niche electricity technologies and reconfigure the incumbent regime. Developing such a framework requires careful planning and consideration of cross-cutting issues, however, which can take time. A key strategy to reconcile the need for rapid transitioning to address the climate crisis with the usually prolonged transition process is to focus initial efforts on promoting clean technologies that already play a significant role in the energy mix, which could reduce immediate demand for major regime change and ensure a quick start to the transition, while buying time to plan to reconfigure the incumbent regime for a clean electricity future