Testing Weak Form Market Efficiency for Emerging Economies: A Nonlinear Approach

In this paper, we address weak form stock market efficiency of Emerging Economies, by testing whether the price series of these markets contain unit root. Nonlinear behavior of stock prices is well documented in the literature, and thus linear unit root tests may not be appropriate in this case. For this purpose, we employ the nonlinear unit root test procedure recently developed by Kapetanios et al. (2003) and nonlinear panel unit root test Ucar and Omay (2009) that has a better power than standard unit root tests when series under consideration are characterized by a slower speed of mean reversion. Large power gains are achieved through combining cross-sectional information and nonlinear estimation techniques in computing unit root tests. The results of ADF and PP indicate that Bulgarian, Greek, Hungarian, Polish, Romanian, Russian, Slovenian and Turkish stock markets are weak form efficient, while the results of nonlinear unit root test implies that Russian, Romanian and Polish stock markets are not weak form efficient. Moreover, the linear panel unit root test suggest that this group as all efficient where as nonlinear panel unit root test suggest as a group they are not efficient.Keywords: Linear and Nonlinear Unit root and Panel Unit Root, Emerging Markets, Market Efficiency

The relationship between output growth and inflation: Evidence from Turkey

In this study, a bi-variate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticty model is used in order to investigate the Granger causality relationships between output growth, inflation rate and their uncertainties. Our test results show that the existence of Granger-causality is observed from nominal uncertainty to inflation, from nominal uncertainty to real uncertainty, from output growth to real uncertainty, from output growth to nominal uncertainty and from inflation to nominal uncertainty. These findings prove that theoretical predictions of Cuikerman and Meltzer (1986), Okun (1971) and Friedman (1977) are valid for the period 1986:6-2007:1 for Turkey. On the other hand, ‘Short-run Phillips Curve’ and ‘Taylor Effect’ have proven empirically to be invalid for Turkey for this sample period. Moreover, we deduce that Turkish inflation is affected by the output growth through the nominal uncertainty channel.Inflation; output growth; uncertainty; Granger-Causality; bi-variate GARCH.

An Examination Of The Effects Of The February, 2001 Crisis (Turkey) On The Performances Of The Low-Q And High-Q Firms

This paper examines the effects of the February 2001 Economic Crisis (Turkey) on the low-Q and high-Q firms. In the study, our sample is composed of the firms that are actively being traded on Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) during that time, and is divided into two sub-samples based on their Tobins’ Q values. As firms with high Tobins’ Q values are supposed to have lower debt levels we proposed them to be less affected by the crises: their debt repayment commitments are lower, although they are expected to be under the burden of higher interest rates. On the other hand, low-Q firms have incentives to overinvest due to the high levels of available free cash and they may be under the burden of some perquisites expenses. But because of the asset substitution affect, the investments undertaken by low-Q firms are expected to be safer projects while high-Q firms may have undertaken more risky projects. To test our hypothesis that the crisis would affect the low- and high-Q firms to differing extends, we construct the average mean excess returns of both sub-samples and use the Large Sample Test of Hypothesis About a Population Mean method. Our results mainly confirm our expectations: we found that the average mean excess negative returns of high-Q firms were higher than that of low-Q firms during the February 2001 Crisis, indicating that high-Q firms are more riskier in an economic crisis setting than low-Q firms, which in turn implies that the effects of the conflict between equityholders and debtholders dominate the affects of the conflict between managers and the shareholders

Testing Weak Form Market Efficiency for Emerging Economies: A Nonlinear Approach

In this paper, we address weak form stock market efficiency of Emerging Economies, by testing whether the price series of these markets contain unit root. Nonlinear behavior of stock prices is well documented in the literature, and thus linear unit root tests may not be appropriate in this case. For this purpose, we employ the nonlinear unit root test procedure recently developed by Kapetanios et al. (2003) and nonlinear panel unit root test Ucar and Omay (2009) that has a better power than standard unit root tests when series under consideration are characterized by a slower speed of mean reversion. Large power gains are achieved through combining cross-sectional information and nonlinear estimation techniques in computing unit root tests. The results of ADF and PP indicate that Bulgarian, Greek, Hungarian, Polish, Romanian, Russian, Slovenian and Turkish stock markets are weak form efficient, while the results of nonlinear unit root test implies that Russian, Romanian and Polish stock markets are not weak form efficient. Moreover, the linear panel unit root test suggest that this group as all efficient where as nonlinear panel unit root test suggest as a group they are not efficient

The relationship between output growth and inflation: Evidence from Turkey

In this study, a bi-variate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticty model is used in order to investigate the Granger causality relationships between output growth, inflation rate and their uncertainties. Our test results show that the existence of Granger-causality is observed from nominal uncertainty to inflation, from nominal uncertainty to real uncertainty, from output growth to real uncertainty, from output growth to nominal uncertainty and from inflation to nominal uncertainty. These findings prove that theoretical predictions of Cuikerman and Meltzer (1986), Okun (1971) and Friedman (1977) are valid for the period 1986:6-2007:1 for Turkey. On the other hand, ‘Short-run Phillips Curve’ and ‘Taylor Effect’ have proven empirically to be invalid for Turkey for this sample period. Moreover, we deduce that Turkish inflation is affected by the output growth through the nominal uncertainty channel

Business groups and internal capital markets

We compare the performance of firms affiliated with diversified business groups with the performance of unaffiliated firms in Turkey, all emerging market. We address the question of whether group-affiliated firms create internal capital markets or control large cash flows. Our findings indicate that group affiliation improves a firm accounting performance, but not stock market performance. Deviation of cash-flow rights front voting rights has a negative but insignificant effect on accounting performance, but a significant effect on market performance. We also find that a firm's accounting, but not stock market, performance increases with the level of group diversification. Our results show that internal capital markets play an important role for the existence of business groups in all emerging market context

Business Groups and Internal Capital Markets

We compare the performance of firms affiliated with diversified business groups with the performance of unaffiliated firms in Turkey, an emerging market. We address the question of whether group-affiliated firms create internal capital markets or control large cash flows. Our findings indicate that group affiliation improves a firm's accounting performance, but not stock market performance. Deviation of cash-flow rights from voting rights has a negative but insignificant effect on accounting performance, but a significant effect on market performance. We also find that a firm's accounting, but not stock market, performance increases with the level of group diversification. Our results show that internal capital markets play an important role for the existence of business groups in an emerging market context.business groups, emerging market, internal capital markets,