Serial counts of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in sputum as surrogate markers of the sterilising activity of rifampicin and pyrazinamide in treating pulmonary tuberculosis

BACKGROUND: Since the sterilising activity of new antituberculosis drugs is difficult to assess by conventional phase III studies, surrogate methods related to eventual relapse rates are required. METHODS: A suitable method is suggested by a retrospective analysis of viable counts of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in 12-hr sputum collections from 122 newly diagnosed patients with pulmonary tuberculosis in Nairobi, done pretreatment and at 2, 7, 14 and 28 days. Treatment was with isoniazid and streptomycin, supplemented with either thiacetazone (SHT) or rifampicin + pyrazinamide (SHRZ). RESULTS: During days 0–2, a large kill due to isoniazid occurred, unrelated to treatment or HIV status; thereafter it decreased exponentially. SHRZ appeared to have greater sterilising activity than SHT during days 2–7 (p = 0.044), due to rifampicin, and during days 14–28, probably due mainly to pyrazinamide. The greatest discrimination between SHRZ and SHT treatments was found between regression estimates of kill over days 2–28 (p = 0.0005) in patients who remained positive up to 28 days with homogeneous kill rates. No associations were found between regression estimates and the age, sex, and extent of disease or cavitation. An increased kill in HIV seropositive patients, unrelated to the treatment effect, was evident during days 2–28 (p = 0.007), mainly during days 2–7. CONCLUSIONS: Surrogate marker studies should either be in small groups treated with monotherapy during days 2 to about 7 or as add-ons or replacements in isoniazid-containing standard regimens from days 2 to 28 in large groups

Cost-effectiveness of novel vaccines for tuberculosis control: a decision analysis study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The development of a successful new tuberculosis (TB) vaccine would circumvent many limitations of current diagnostic and treatment practices. However, vaccine development is complex and costly. We aimed to assess the potential cost effectiveness of novel vaccines for TB control in a sub-Saharan African country - Zambia - relative to the existing strategy of directly observed treatment, short course (DOTS) and current level of bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination coverage.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We conducted a decision analysis model-based simulation from the societal perspective, with a 3% discount rate and all costs expressed in 2007 US dollars. Health outcomes and costs were projected over a 30-year period, for persons born in Zambia (population 11,478,000 in 2005) in year 1. Initial development costs for single vaccination and prime-boost strategies were prorated to the Zambian share (0.398%) of global BCG vaccine coverage for newborns. Main outcome measures were TB-related morbidity, mortality, and costs over a range of potential scenarios for vaccine efficacy.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Relative to the status quo strategy, a BCG replacement vaccine administered at birth, with 70% efficacy in preventing rapid progression to TB disease after initial infection, is estimated to avert 932 TB cases and 422 TB-related deaths (prevention of 199 cases/100,000 vaccinated, and 90 deaths/100,000 vaccinated). This would result in estimated net savings of $3.6 million over 30 years for 468,073 Zambians born in year 1 of the simulation. The addition of a booster at age 10 results in estimated savings of$5.6 million compared to the status quo, averting 1,863 TB cases and 1,011 TB-related deaths (prevention of 398 cases/100,000 vaccinated, and of 216 deaths/100,000 vaccinated). With vaccination at birth alone, net savings would be realized within 1 year, whereas the prime-boost strategy would require an additional 5 years to realize savings, reflecting a greater initial development cost.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Investment in an improved TB vaccine is predicted to result in considerable cost savings, as well as a reduction in TB morbidity and TB-related mortality, when added to existing control strategies. For a vaccine with waning efficacy, a prime-boost strategy is more cost-effective in the long term.</p

Impact of DOTS expansion on tuberculosis related outcomes and costs in Haiti

BACKGROUND: Implementation of the World Health Organization's DOTS strategy (Directly Observed Treatment Short-course therapy) can result in significant reduction in tuberculosis incidence. We estimated potential costs and benefits of DOTS expansion in Haiti from the government, and societal perspectives. METHODS: Using decision analysis incorporating multiple Markov processes (Markov modelling), we compared expected tuberculosis morbidity, mortality and costs in Haiti with DOTS expansion to reach all of the country, and achieve WHO benchmarks, or if the current situation did not change. Probabilities of tuberculosis related outcomes were derived from the published literature. Government health expenditures, patient and family costs were measured in direct surveys in Haiti and expressed in 2003 US$. RESULTS: Starting in 2003, DOTS expansion in Haiti is anticipated to cost$4.2 million and result in 63,080 fewer tuberculosis cases, 53,120 fewer tuberculosis deaths, and net societal savings of $131 million, over 20 years. Current government spending for tuberculosis is high, relative to the per capita income, and would be only slightly lower with DOTS. Societal savings would begin within 4 years, and would be substantial in all scenarios considered, including higher HIV seroprevalence or drug resistance, unchanged incidence following DOTS expansion, or doubling of initial and ongoing costs for DOTS expansion. CONCLUSION: A modest investment for DOTS expansion in Haiti would provide considerable humanitarian benefit by reducing tuberculosis-related morbidity, mortality and costs for patients and their families. These benefits, together with projected minimal Haitian government savings, argue strongly for donor support for DOTS expansion