Future recession risks: an update

In 2010, statistical experiments based on components of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index showed a significant possibility of a U.S. recession over a 24-month period. Since then, the European sovereign debt crisis has aggravated international threats to the U.S. economy. Moreover, the Japanese earthquake and tsunami demonstrated that the U.S. economy is vulnerable to outside disruptions. Updated forecasts suggest that the probability of a U.S. recession has remained elevated and may have increased over the past year, in part because of foreign financial and economic crises.Recessions

Mormonism: A System of Infidelity?

A pamphlet containing arguments against the validity of the claims of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints and Mormon elders. The author examines the Book of Mormon, the Doctrines and Covenants, and the Joseph Smith Translation of the Bible and shows contradictions between these and the Bible.https://digitalcommons.acu.edu/crs_books/1506/thumbnail.jp

The Use Of Personality Profiling As A Means To Assess Person-Organizational Fit To Inform Personnel Decisions

Profile matching refers to personnel selection based on candidate similarity to a pre-determined pattern. Although previous investigations support the use of personality data through univariate, linear-based selection methodologies, there is a paucity of research supporting the use of profile matching in a selection context, and very limited selection research has utilized a person-centered approach. Still, this support is necessary, given that a recent study estimated that the majority of consultative vendor organizations utilize some form of profile matching using personality patterns (Kulas, 2013). After generating profiles from the candidate pool, findings from the current study suggest that profiles have potential to offer predictive power beyond that of general mental ability for one organizational outcome, tenure. The results predicting job performance by profile were not supported. The current study further investigates the feasibility of profile generation based on an organization’s values and mission, to be used to assess fit for the purpose of selection. The use of person- and variable-centered approaches in understanding phenomenon is encouraged. Implications and future research are discussed

Measuring farm progress of plan II veterans taking institutional on-the-farm training

August 1949.Includes bibliographical references (pages 125-129).Covers not scanned.To view the abstract, please see the full text of the document

Frequency-Domain Stochastic Modeling of Stationary Bivariate or Complex-Valued Signals

There are three equivalent ways of representing two jointly observed real-valued signals: as a bivariate vector signal, as a single complex-valued signal, or as two analytic signals known as the rotary components. Each representation has unique advantages depending on the system of interest and the application goals. In this paper we provide a joint framework for all three representations in the context of frequency-domain stochastic modeling. This framework allows us to extend many established statistical procedures for bivariate vector time series to complex-valued and rotary representations. These include procedures for parametrically modeling signal coherence, estimating model parameters using the Whittle likelihood, performing semi-parametric modeling, and choosing between classes of nested models using model choice. We also provide a new method of testing for impropriety in complex-valued signals, which tests for noncircular or anisotropic second-order statistical structure when the signal is represented in the complex plane. Finally, we demonstrate the usefulness of our methodology in capturing the anisotropic structure of signals observed from fluid dynamic simulations of turbulence.Comment: To appear in IEEE Transactions on Signal Processin

A Power Variance Test for Nonstationarity in Complex-Valued Signals

We propose a novel algorithm for testing the hypothesis of nonstationarity in complex-valued signals. The implementation uses both the bootstrap and the Fast Fourier Transform such that the algorithm can be efficiently implemented in O(NlogN) time, where N is the length of the observed signal. The test procedure examines the second-order structure and contrasts the observed power variance - i.e. the variability of the instantaneous variance over time - with the expected characteristics of stationary signals generated via the bootstrap method. Our algorithmic procedure is capable of learning different types of nonstationarity, such as jumps or strong sinusoidal components. We illustrate the utility of our test and algorithm through application to turbulent flow data from fluid dynamics

Family to Family: Child Welfare for the 21st Century

Child welfare services have undergone many revisions and transformations since their initiation. Some scholars trace the beginning of child welfare in the United States to events such as a 1655 Massachusetts conviction for maltreatment leading to the death of a 12-year-old boy (Watkins, 1990). The predominant philosophy of child welfare has shifted over time from an early emphasis on child saving, to child protection, to family preservation. Building on family preservation, one of the current transformations in child welfare that is taking place in isolated pockets to whole states, is family-centered, neighborhood-based services. One force behind implementation of this transformation is the Family to Family Initiative of the Annie E. Casey Foundation. This paper places family-centered, neighborhood-based child welfare services within the historical context of development of child welfare and within the recent move to reinvent human services (Adams & Nelson, 1995). Against this backdrop, a locality-based implementation of the Family to Family Initiative is described

National Vital Statistics Reports

Objectives—This report presents 2011 data on U.S. births according to a wide variety of characteristics. Data are presented for maternal characteristics, including age, live-birth order, race and Hispanic origin, marital status, attendant at birth, method of delivery, and infant characteristics (e.g., period of gestation, birthweight, and plurality). Birth and fertility rates are presented by age, live-birth order, race and Hispanic origin, and marital status. Selected data by mother’s state of residence and birth rates by age and race of father also are shown. Trends in fertility patterns and maternal and infant characteristics are described and interpreted. Methods—Descriptive tabulations of data reported on the birth certificates of the 3.95 million births that occurred in 2011 are presented. Denominators for population-based rates are postcensal estimates derived from the U.S. 2010 census. Birth and fertility rates for 2001–2009 are based on revised intercensal population estimates. Denominators for 2011 and 2010 rates for the specific Hispanic groups are derived from the American Community Survey; denominators for earlier years are derived from the Current Population Survey

Space-based geoengineering: challenges and requirements

The prospect of engineering the Earth's climate (geoengineering) raises a multitude of issues associated with climatology, engineering on macroscopic scales, and indeed the ethics of such ventures. Depending on personal views, such large-scale engineering is either an obvious necessity for the deep future, or yet another example of human conceit. In this article a simple climate model will be used to estimate requirements for engineering the Earth's climate, principally using space-based geoengineering. Active cooling of the climate to mitigate anthropogenic climate change due to a doubling of the carbon dioxide concentration in the Earth's atmosphere is considered. This representative scenario will allow the scale of the engineering challenge to be determined. It will be argued that simple occulting discs at the interior Lagrange point may represent a less complex solution than concepts for highly engineered refracting discs proposed recently. While engineering on macroscopic scales can appear formidable, emerging capabilities may allow such ventures to be seriously considered in the long term. This article is not an exhaustive review of geoengineering, but aims to provide a foretaste of the future opportunities, challenges, and requirements for space-based geoengineering ventures