Inclusion financière, frictions financières et croissance économique

This article develops an analytical growth model that integrates the financial sector, the part of individuals acceding to financial systems, frictions related to the enforceability of contracts and the constraints related to the costs of information on production processes. Our model considers an economy with three categories of individuals. The first includes individuals excluded from the financial system. The second includes individuals included but with constraints due to the costs of researching information on the quality of projects. The individuals of the third category accede with less constraint than the second category and more chances that the financial contracts to which they subscribe will be executed. Based on the model simulation, the quantity of resources directed to firms increase when the financial system becomes inclusive. Our model is original in nature and provides analytical and empirical evidence on the negative impact of financial exclusion on economic growth, and highlighted the vital role of financial inclusion in economic growth. As for the enforceability of contracts concluded on the credit market, it stimulates the proportion of resources invested by the agents of the three categories

Capital deepening and efficiency in Morocco

Investment is at the heart of economic growth. It increases the available stock of capital for productive activities and allows the introduction, in the productive process, of improved technology embedded in new capital items. Monitoring accumulation and use of this capital is a big issue. Our paper aims to bring a diagnostic of the Moroccan case by responding to these two questions: is capital stock sufficient? Is it efficiently used? Our results show that Morocco recorded an overinvestment in the 1970s, an underinvestment in the period 1982-2004 and an overinvestment since mid-2000s. The estimation of the rate of return to capital in the Moroccan economy indicates that RRK was under 10% until the beginning of the 1990s. Since then, it recorded a steady increase that culminated at 18% around 2004. After this date, it began to decrease. We attribute the low level of capital-labor ratio in Morocco to the high price of investment goods compared to consumption goods especially before 2000, to the insufficiency of human capital accumulation and absorption, and to the low level of TFP. The major conclusion of this paper is that the debate about the efficiency of capital use must go hand in hand with an exploration of why capital accumulation in Morocco is insufficient

Capital deepening and efficiency in Morocco

Investment is at the heart of economic growth. It increases the available stock of capital for productive activities and allows the introduction, in the productive process, of improved technology embedded in new capital items. Monitoring accumulation and use of this capital is a big issue. Our paper aims to bring a diagnostic of the Moroccan case by responding to these two questions: is capital stock sufficient? Is it efficiently used? Our results show that Morocco recorded an overinvestment in the 1970s, an underinvestment in the period 1982-2004 and an overinvestment since mid-2000s. The estimation of the rate of return to capital in the Moroccan economy indicates that RRK was under 10% until the beginning of the 1990s. Since then, it recorded a steady increase that culminated at 18% around 2004. After this date, it began to decrease. We attribute the low level of capital-labor ratio in Morocco to the high price of investment goods compared to consumption goods especially before 2000, to the insufficiency of human capital accumulation and absorption, and to the low level of TFP. The major conclusion of this paper is that the debate about the efficiency of capital use must go hand in hand with an exploration of why capital accumulation in Morocco is insufficient

Capital account liberalization and Moroccan macroeconomic performances

Moroccan economic policy was oriented since mid-1980s to open and liberalize the economy. The openness policy was reinforced with trade flows liberalization in 1993 with accession to article VIII of IMF status. In a new step, the opening of the economy is reached after accession to the GATT and WTO and the conclusion of many bilateral free trade agreements in the end of 1990s and the beginning of the new millennium. Recently, the openness is accelerated in the area of capital flows liberalization with the objective to eliminate the restrictions on capital inflows and then on capital outflows. Thus, the recent capital account dynamics lead us to attempt to evaluate their effects on main macroeconomic variables. For this, we start the discussion by recalling the theoretical debate around external financial liberalization and lessons obtained from the recent experience. After this, we discuss the opportunity for Morocco, as small and open economy, to integrate international financial markets. Methodologically, we use a Structural Vector Auto-Regressive (SVAR) model to explore the interaction between capital flows and macroeconomic variables. The period of study is from 1980 to 2012. The results allow us to conclude that capital account liberalization has a major effect on real effective exchange rate. Capital inflows lead to a temporary depreciation of the real effective exchange rate during the first year and, then, to an appreciation starting from the second year. Precisely, the results confirmed that the conduct of capital account liberalization policy under a fixed exchange rate regime is conducive to the risk of real appreciation

Imports contents, value added generation and structural change in morocco: input output analysis

Our main goal in this paper is to classify productive sectors according to the combination of two effects. The first effect lies in the change of their external dependency on imported inputs. The second effect is related to the change of their ability to generate value-added by unit of final demand. To perform this ordering of productive sectors, we use an input-output model after domesticating inter-industries tables of flows for the period 1999-2009. The domestication of the available matrix of intermediate consumption is necessary because the statistical authority in Morocco does not distinguish between imported and domestically produced inputs. Two of our results worth to be highlighted. First, the imports elasticity with respect to growth is superior to unity. This means that 1% increase of Gross Domestic Product produces an increase of imports of more than 1%. The second result is that there are no productive sectors belong to the most virtuous classes of sectors characterized by an increase of their ability to generate more value added and to reduce their reliance on imports. The higher imports dependency (leakages) is the consequence of increased openness of the Moroccan economy, but also from lower linkages between domestic productive sectors

Inclusion financière, frictions financières et croissance économique

This article develops an analytical growth model that integrates the financial sector, the part of individuals acceding to financial systems, frictions related to the enforceability of contracts and the constraints related to the costs of information on production processes. Our model considers an economy with three categories of individuals. The first includes individuals excluded from the financial system. The second includes individuals included but with constraints due to the costs of researching information on the quality of projects. The individuals of the third category accede with less constraint than the second category and more chances that the financial contracts to which they subscribe will be executed. Based on the model simulation, the quantity of resources directed to firms increase when the financial system becomes inclusive. Our model is original in nature and provides analytical and empirical evidence on the negative impact of financial exclusion on economic growth, and highlighted the vital role of financial inclusion in economic growth. As for the enforceability of contracts concluded on the credit market, it stimulates the proportion of resources invested by the agents of the three categories

Financial development and total factors productivity channel: Evidence from Africa

We explore the links between financial development and economic growth through Total Factors Productivity canal in African economies. First, we use a composite index to gauge the levels of financial development in 40 African economies during the period 2004-2014. Second, we study the Finance-Total Factors Productivity (TFP) relationship in a panel of 22 economies classified by their income level. The main results of our study show that financial development in Africa promotes economic growth, improves the allocation investment, and stimulates total factors productivity, but affects negatively saving mobilization. Results by group of countries show that financial development does not promote total factors productivity in low-income and upper-middle-income countries. For low-income countries, this is due to the inadequacy of financial services available to the needs of economic agents. For the second category of countries, this result is probably due to the fact that the financial system is biased toward the formal sector, which does not make enough efforts to increase TFP. The Finance-TFP relationship is significantly positive in the lower middle-income countries. the reforms of African financial systems have to be designed and directed to increase the adequacy of financial services to the needs of each economy and its development level. Financial sectors should encourage the accumulation of inputs in factors-driven economies, improve the reallocation of resources to high-productivity sectors in efficiency-driven economies, and finance Innovation in innovation-driven economies

Financial development and total factors productivity channel: Evidence from Africa

We explore the links between financial development and economic growth through Total Factors Productivity canal in African economies. First, we use a composite index to gauge the levels of financial development in 40 African economies during the period 2004-2014. Second, we study the Finance-Total Factors Productivity (TFP) relationship in a panel of 22 economies classified by their income level. The main results of our study show that financial development in Africa promotes economic growth, improves the allocation investment, and stimulates total factors productivity, but affects negatively saving mobilization. Results by group of countries show that financial development does not promote total factors productivity in low-income and upper-middle-income countries. For low-income countries, this is due to the inadequacy of financial services available to the needs of economic agents. For the second category of countries, this result is probably due to the fact that the financial system is biased toward the formal sector, which does not make enough efforts to increase TFP. The Finance-TFP relationship is significantly positive in the lower middle-income countries. the reforms of African financial systems have to be designed and directed to increase the adequacy of financial services to the needs of each economy and its development level. Financial sectors should encourage the accumulation of inputs in factors-driven economies, improve the reallocation of resources to high-productivity sectors in efficiency-driven economies, and finance Innovation in innovation-driven economies

Trading mechanisms, return’s volatility and efficiency in the Casablanca Stock Exchange

This paper studies the impact of the stock market continuity on the returns volatility and on the market efficiency in the Casablanca Stock Exchange. For the most active stocks, the trading mechanism used is the continuous market which is preceded by a call market pre-opening session. Results obtained concerning return volatility and efficiency under the two trading mechanisms show that the continuous market returns are more volatile than the call market returns and 50 percent of stocks studied show independence between variations