Exchange Rate Forecasting: Evidence from the Emerging Central and Eastern European Economies

There is a vast literature on exchange rate forecasting focusing on developed economies. Since the early 1990s, many developing economies have liberalized their financial accounts, and become an integral part of the international financial system. A series of financial crises experienced by these emerging market economies ed them to switch to some form of a flexible exchange rate regime, coupled with inflation targeting. These developments, in turn, accentuate the need for exchange rate forecasting in such economies. This paper is a first attempt to compile data from the emerging Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies, to evaluate the performance of versions of the monetary model of exchange rate determination, and time series models for forecasting exchange rates. Forecast performance of these models at various horizons are evaluated against that of a random walk, which, overwhelmingly, was found to be the best exchange rate predictor for developed economies in the previous literature. Following Clark and West (2006, 2007) for forecast performance analysis, we report that in short horizons, structural models and time series models outperform the random walk for the six CEE countries in the data set

Limb Lengths of Primary School Children in a City From Western Region of Turkey

Anthropometry has been used for the assessment of growth at different ages. Among the anthropometric measurements, weight, height, arm circumference, and lower and upper limb lengths are of the most important criteria showing the development of children in school age. The aim of the present study was to measure the lengths of upper (arm, forearm, hand) and lower (thigh, leg, foot) limbs of children studying in primary schools of Aydin, a city in the western region of Turkey, and to assess the differences according to the gender (female, male) and living areas (urban, rural). In different age groups, many differences were observed when compared for gender and area. Differences were also seen when compared with the other studies done in different part of Turkey. The data was the first one for the region and it might be useful for further regional studies or for national comparisons. More studies designed with bigger sample sizes that cover many cities belonging to the same region of the country are needed. In addition to cross-sectional studies, Longitudinal studies may give more useful knowledge for understanding the growth of children

The association of self-esteem, depression and body satisfaction with obesity among Turkish adolescents

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The purpose of this study was to determine the prevalence of overweight and obesity and to examine the effects of actual weight status, perceived weight status and body satisfaction on self-esteem and depression in a high school population in Turkey.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A cross-sectional survey of 2101 tenth-grade Turkish adolescents aged 15–18 was conducted. Body mass index (BMI) was calculated using weight and height measures. The overweight and obesity were based on the age- and gender-spesific BMI cut-off points of the International Obesity Task Force values. Self-esteem was measured using the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale, and depression was measured using Children's Depression Inventory. Logistic regression analysis was used to examine relationships among the variables.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Based on BMI cut-off points, 9.0% of the students were overweight and 1.1% were obese. Logistic regression analysis indicated that (1) being male and being from a higher socio-economical level were important in the prediction of overweight based on BMI; (2) being female and being from a higher socio-economical level were important in the prediction of perceived overweight; (3) being female was important in the prediction of body dissatisfaction; (4) body dissatisfaction was related to low self-esteem and depression, perceived overweight was related only to low self-esteem but actual overweight was not related to low self-esteem and depression in adolescents.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The results of this study suggest that school-based adolescents in urban Turkey have a lower risk of overweight and obesity than adolescents in developed countries. The findings of this study suggest that psychological well-being of adolescents is more related to body satisfaction than actual and perceived weight status is.</p

Discussion on “Empirical methods for determining shaft bearing capacity of semi-deep foundations socketed in rocks” [J Rock Mech Geotech Eng 6 (2017) 1140–151]

A new comprehensive set of data (n = 178) is compiled by adding a data set (n = 72) collected by Arioglu et al. (2007) to the data set (n = 106) presented in Rezazadeh and Eslami (2017). Then, the compiled data set is evaluated regardless of the variation in lithology/strength. The proposed empirical equation in this study comprises a wider range of uniaxial compressive strength (UCS) (0.15 MPa < σrc < 156 MPa) and various rock types. Rock mass cuttability index (RMCI) is correlated with shaft resistance (rs) to predict the shaft resistance of rock-socketed piles. The prediction capacity of the RMCI versus rs equation is also found to be in a fair good agreement with the presented data in Rezazadeh and Eslami (2017). Since the RMCI is a promising parameter in the prediction of shaft resistance, the researchers in the rock-socketed pile design area should consider this parameter in the further investigations. Keywords: Uniaxial compressive strength (UCS), Rock mass cuttability index (RMCI), Shaft resistance, Rock socketed piles, Databas

Investigation of Legionella pneumophila seropositivity in the professional long distance drivers as a risky occupation

Contaminated water sources, reservoirs and systems such as evaporative condensers of air-conditioners are known to be the main transmission routes of Legionella spp. which are ubiquitous aquatic bacteria. By virtue of this point the aim of this study was to investigate the rate of Legionella pneumophila seropositivity in a profession considered as risky due to the direct and prolonged exposure to air-conditioning and air-circulating systems. For this purpose, in the period of February-August 2004 a total of 79 male subjects (63 were bus drivers and 16 were driver assistants) who were continously travelling to two different route (South part as hot climate and Middle/North parts as cold climate of Turkey) from Denizli province coach station (a province located in internal Aegian where accepted as crossroads), were included to the study. The mean age and mean working duration of bus drivers were 43.0±1.1 years and 20.0±1.1 years, respectively, while these values were 22.5±0.9 years and 4.0±0.6 years, respectively, for the drivers' assistants. The serum samples collected from the subjects were screened by a commercial indirect immunofluorescence method (Euroimmun, Germany) using L.pneumophila serogrup 1-14 antigens for the presence of specific antibodies. Additionally, air-conditioners' moisture exhaust samples of the busses in which seropositive subjects travelling with have been examined by culture and 5S rRNA gene targeted polymerase chain reaction (PCR) methods, for the presence of Legionella spp. The overall L.pneumophila seropositivity rate was detected as 15.2% (12/79). This rate was 19% (12 /63) for bus drivers while all of the drivers' assistants were found seronegative. The seropositivity rate was found statistically higher in the personnel who were travelling to the hot climates (10/36, 27.8%) than those who travel to cold climates (2/43, 4.6%), (p<0.05). The culture and PCR yielded negative results for Legionella spp. in the exhaust samples collected from the air-conditioners of the busses in which seropositive drivers travel. Our data indicated that long distance bus drivers were chronically exposed to this pathogen and this may be considered as an occupational risk factor for legionellosis especially for drivers who travel to the west and south parts of our country (mean temperature in August 2004: 30-35°C), since the bus air-conditioning and air-circulating systems are active during the travel. Further studies on air spreading of Legionella in intercity busses can reveal how the exposure occurs for bus drivers

Exchange Rate Forecasting: Evidence from the Emerging Central and Eastern European Economies

There is a vast literature on exchange rate forecasting focusing on developed economies. Since the early 1990s, many developing economies have liberalized their financial accounts, and become an integral part of the international financial system. A series of financial crises experienced by these emerging market economies ed them to switch to some form of a flexible exchange rate regime, coupled with inflation targeting. These developments, in turn, accentuate the need for exchange rate forecasting in such economies. This paper is a first attempt to compile data from the emerging Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies, to evaluate the performance of versions of the monetary model of exchange rate determination, and time series models for forecasting exchange rates. Forecast performance of these models at various horizons are evaluated against that of a random walk, which, overwhelmingly, was found to be the best exchange rate predictor for developed economies in the previous literature. Following Clark and West (2006, 2007) for forecast performance analysis, we report that in short horizons, structural models and time series models outperform the random walk for the six CEE countries in the data set.Exchange rate forecasting; Out-of-sample forecast performance

A new record for the flora of Turkey: Scorzonera ketzkhovelii Grossh. (Asteraceae)

WOS: 000276167100008Scorzonera ketzkhovelii Grossh. (Asteraceae) was recently collected from Yusufeli, Artvin (north-east Anatolia) and it has been reported as a new species record for the flora of Turkey. It is described and illustrated. In addition, its karyological features and pollen morphology are given.TOBITAK [TBAG-106T240]We are indebted to TOBITAK (Project no. TBAG-106T240) for its financial support. In addition, we thank Dr. Serdar MAKBUL (University of Rize, Turkey) for his helpful discussion