Runoff variations in Lake Balkhash Basin, Central Asia, 1779-2015, inferred from tree rings

Long highly-resolved proxies for runoff are in high demand for hydrological forecasts and water management in arid Central Asia. An accurate (R2 = 0.53) reconstruction of October-September discharge of the Ili River in Kazakhstan, 1779–2015, is developed from moisture-sensitive tree rings of spruce sampled in the Tian Shan Mountains. The fivefold extension of the gauged discharge record represents the variability of runoff in the Lake Balkhash Basin for the last 235 years. The reconstruction shows a 40 year long interval of low discharge preceded a recent high peak in the first decade of the 2000s followed by a decline to more recent levels of discharge not seen since the start of the gauged record. Most reconstructed flow extremes (± 2σ) occur outside the instrumental record (1936–2015) and predate the start of large dam construction (1969). Decadal variability of the Ili discharge corresponds well with hydrological records of other Eurasian internal drainages modeled with tree rings. Spectral analysis identifies variance peaks (highest near 42 year) consistent with main hemispheric oscillations of the Eurasian climatic system. Seasonal comparison of the Ili discharge with sea-level-pressure and geopotential height data suggests periods of high flow likely result from the increased contribution of snow to runoff associated with the interaction of Arctic air circulation with the Siberian High-Pressure System and North Atlantic Oscillation

Tracing glacier wastage in the Northern Tien Shan (Kyrgyzstan/Central Asia) over the last 40 years

The status and dynamics of glaciers are crucial for agriculture in semiarid parts of Central Asia, since river flow is characterized by major runoff in spring and summer, supplied by glacier- and snowmelt. Ideally, this coincides with the critical period of water demand for irrigation. The present study shows a clear trend in glacier retreat between 1963 and 2000 in the Sokoluk watershed, a catchment of the Northern Tien Shan mountain range in Kyrgyzstan. The overall area loss of 28% observed for the period 1963–2000, and a clear acceleration of wastage since the 1980s, correlate with the results of previous studies in other regions of the Tien Shan as well as the Alps. In particular, glaciers smaller than 0.5 km2 have exhibited this phenomenon most starkly. While they registered a medium decrease of only 9.1% for 1963–1986, they lost 41.5% of their surface area between 1986 and 2000. Furthermore, a general increase in the minimum glacier elevation of 78 m has been observed over the last three decades. This corresponds to about one-third of the entire retreat of the minimum glacier elevation in the Northern Tien Shan since the Little Ice Age maximum

Water supply and ancient society in the Lake Balkhash Basin: Runoff variability along the historical Silk Road

Expansion of agricultural practices from the Fertile Crescent to China during the mid and late Holocene are believed to have shaped the early network of Silk Road routes and possibly regulated the dynamics of trade and exchange in the urban oases along the Silk Road throughout its existence. While the impacts of climate change on the Silk Road are more or less documented for the medieval period, they remain poorly understood for early history of the Silk Road, especially in Central Asia. We analyze hydroclimatic proxies derived from fluvial stratigraphy, geochronology, and tree-ring records that acted on various time scales in the Lake Balkhash Basin to learn how changes in water supply could have influenced the early farmers in the Semirechye region of southern Kazakhstan. Our approach aims to identify short-term and long-term variability of regional runoff and to compare the hydrological data with cultural dynamics coupled with the archaeological settlement pattern and agricultural production. The reconstructed runoff variability underscore the contribution of winter precipitation driven by the interaction between the Arctic oscillation and the Siberian High-Pressure System, to Central Asian river discharge. We show that Saka people of the Iron Age employed extensive ravine agriculture on the alluvial fans of the Tian Shan piedmont, where floodwater farming peaked between 400 BC and 200 BC. The early Silk Road farmers on the alluvial fans favored periods of reduced flood flows, river stability and glacier retreat in the Tian Shan Mountains. Moreover, they were able to apply simple flow control structures to lead water across the fan surface. It is very unlikely that changes in water supply ever significantly constricted agricultural expansion in this region