Development and validation of a lifestylebased model for colorectal cancer risk prediction: the LiFeCRC score

Background: Nutrition and lifestyle have been long established as risk factors for colorectal cancer (CRC). Modifiable lifestyle behaviours bear potential to minimize long-term CRC risk; however, translation of lifestyle information into individualized CRC risk assessment has not been implemented. Lifestyle-based risk models may aid the identification of high-risk individuals, guide referral to screening and motivate behaviour change. We therefore developed and validated a lifestyle-based CRC risk prediction algorithm in an asymptomatic European population. Methods: The model was based on data from 255,482 participants in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study aged 19 to 70 years who were free of cancer at study baseline (1992–2000) and were followed up to 31 September 2010. The model was validated in a sample comprising 74,403 participants selected among five EPIC centres. Over a median follow-up time of 15 years, there were 3645 and 981 colorectal cancer cases in the derivation and validation samples, respectively. Variable selection algorithms in Cox proportional hazard regression and random survival forest (RSF) were used to identify the best predictors among plausible predictor variables. Measures of discrimination and calibration were calculated in derivation and validation samples. To facilitate model communication, a nomogram and a web-based application were developed. Results: The final selection model included age, waist circumference, height, smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, vegetables, dairy products, processed meat, and sugar and confectionary. The risk score demonstrated good discrimination overall and in sex-specific models. Harrell’s C-index was 0.710 in the derivation cohort and 0.714 in the validation cohort. The model was well calibrated and showed strong agreement between predicted and observed risk. Random survival forest analysis suggested high model robustness. Beyond age, lifestyle data led to improved model performance overall (continuous net reclassification improvement = 0.307 (95% CI 0.264–0.352)), and especially for young individuals below 45 years (continuous net reclassification improvement = 0.364 (95% CI 0.084–0.575)). Conclusions: LiFeCRC score based on age and lifestyle data accurately identifies individuals at risk for incident colorectal cancer in European populations and could contribute to improved prevention through motivating lifestyle change at an individual level.German Research Foundation (DFG) AL 1784/3-1European Commission European Commission Joint Research CentreInternational Agency for Research on CancerDanish Cancer SocietyLigue Contre le Cancer (France)Institut Gustave Roussy (France)Mutuelle Generale de l'Education Nationale (France)Institut National de la Sante et de la Recherche Medicale (Inserm)Deutsche Krebshilfe, Deutsches Krebsforschungszentrum (DKFZ) (Germany)Federal Ministry of Education & Research (BMBF)Hellenic Health Foundation (Greece)Associazione Italiana per la Ricerca sul Cancro (AIRC)Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR)Netherlands GovernmentWorld Cancer Research Fund International (WCRF)Instituto de Salud Carlos III PI13/00061 PI13/01162Junta de AndaluciaRegional Government of Asturias (Spain)Regional Government of Basque Country (Spain)Regional Government of Murcia (Spain) 6236Regional Government of Navarra (Spain)Regional Government of Catalonia (Catalan Institute of Oncology -ICO-IDIBELL) (Spain)Swedish Cancer SocietySwedish Research CouncilCounty Council of Skane (Sweden)County Council of Vasterbotten (Sweden)Cancer Research UK C864/A14136 C8221/A19170UK Research & Innovation (UKRI) Medical Research Council UK (MRC) MR/N003284/1 MC-UU_12015/1 MR/M012190/1Projekt DEA

Consumption of fish and long-chain n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids is associated with reduced risk of colorectal cancer in a large European cohort

BACKGROUND & AIMS: There is an unclear association between intake of fish and long-chain n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (n-3 LC-PUFAs) and colorectal cancer (CRC). We examined the association between fish consumption, dietary and circulating levels of n-3 LC-PUFAs, and ratio of n-6:n-3 LC-PUFA with CRC using data from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. METHODS: Dietary intake of fish (total, fatty/oily, lean/white) and n-3 LC-PUFA were estimated by food frequency questionnaires given to 521,324 participants in the EPIC study; among these, 6291 individuals developed CRC (median follow up, 14.9 years). Levels of phospholipid LC-PUFA were measured by gas chromatography in plasma samples from a sub-group of 461 CRC cases and 461 matched individuals without CRC (controls). Multivariable Cox proportional hazards and conditional logistic regression models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and odds ratios (ORs), respectively, with 95% CIs. RESULTS: Total intake of fish (HR for quintile 5 vs 1, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.80-0.96; Ptrend=.005), fatty fish (HR for quintile 5 vs 1, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.82-0.98; Ptrend=.009), and lean fish (HR for quintile 5 vs 1, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.83-1.00; Ptrend=.016) were inversely associated with CRC incidence. Intake of total n-3 LC-PUFA (HR for quintile 5 vs 1, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.78-0.95; Ptrend=.010) was also associated with reduced risk of CRC, whereas dietary ratio of n-6:n-3 LC-PUFA was associated with increased risk of CRC (HR for quintile 5 vs 1, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.18-1.45; Ptrend<.001). Plasma levels of phospholipid n-3 LC-PUFA was not associated with overall CRC risk, but an inverse trend was observed for proximal compared with distal colon cancer (Pheterogeneity=.026). CONCLUSIONS: In an analysis of dietary patterns of participants in the EPIC study, we found regular consumption of fish, at recommended levels, to be associated with a lower risk of CRC, possibly through exposure to n-3 LC-PUFA. Levels of n-3 LC-PUFA in plasma were not associated with CRC risk, but there may be differences in risk at different regions of the colon

Dietary and circulating fatty acids and ovarian cancer risk in the European Prospective investigation into cancer and nutrition

Background: Fatty acids impact obesity, estrogens, and inflammation, which are risk factors for ovarian cancer. Few epidemiologic studies have investigated the association of fatty acids with ovarian cancer. Methods: Within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), 1,486 incident ovarian cancer cases were identified. Cox proportional hazard models with adjustment for ovarian cancer risk factors were used to estimate HRs of ovarian cancer across quintiles of intake of fatty acids. False discovery rate was computed to control for multiple testing. Multivariable conditional logistic regression models were used to estimate ORs of ovarian cancer across tertiles of plasma fatty acids among 633 cases and two matched controls in a nested case–control analysis. Results: A positive association was found between ovarian cancer and intake of industrial trans elaidic acid [HR comparing fifth with first quintileQ5-Q1 = 1.29; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.03–1.62; Ptrend = 0.02, q-value = 0.06]. Dietary intakes of n-6 linoleic acid (HRQ5-Q1 = 1.10; 95% CI = 1.01–1.21; Ptrend = 0.03) and n-3 α-linolenic acid (HRQ5-Q1 = 1.18; 95% CI = 1.05–1.34; Ptrend = 0.007) from deep-frying fats were also positively associated with ovarian cancer. Suggestive associations were reported for circulating elaidic (OR comparing third with first tertileT3-T1 = 1.39; 95% CI = 0.99–1.94; Ptrend = 0.06) and α-linolenic acids (ORT3-T1 = 1.30; 95% CI = 0.98–1.72; Ptrend = 0.06). Conclusions: Our results suggest that higher intakes and circulating levels of industrial trans elaidic acid, and higher intakes of linoleic acid and α-linolenic acid from deep-frying fat, may be associated with greater risk of ovarian cancer. Impact: If causal, eliminating industrial trans-fatty acids could offer a straightforward public health action for reducing ovarian cancer risk.</p