FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT AND GROWTH: A PANEL SMOOTH REGRESSION APPROACH

In this paper, we propose an original framework to determine the relative influence of series of variables on the linkage between financial development and economic growth. Based on panel threshold regression models, we establish country-specific and time-specific finance-growth coefficients for 71 countries, both developed and developing, from 1960 to 2004. The results show that inflation rate, ratio of government consumption, degree of openness to trade and financial development affect the non-linearity between financial development and growth, and have the greatest influence on the relationship of two variables.Panel Smooth Regression Models, Financial Development, Growth

Co-movements Of Business Cycles In The Maghreb: Does Trade Matter?

Over the past two decades, the Maghreb Countries have initiated a liberalization process characterized by increasing trade flows and they have strengthened economic and financial linkages between their economies. In this paper, we demonstrate how co-movements of outputs would respond to this integration process. The nature of this relationship seems to be important for these countries because the decision to join an economic and monetary union would depend on how the union affects trade and co-movements. To this end, we estimate a panel model describing the effect of trade intensity on business cycles correlation over the period 1980-2005. Thereafter, to check the robustness of the results, we add many control variables commonly described in the literature. We use three estimation techniques: pooled OLS, fixed vs. random effects as well as 2SLS estimations. Our main results suggest that while trade intensity may help to harmonize business cycles in Maghreb countries, the magnitude of this harmonization is lower than for industrial countries. Moreover, intra-industry trade causes a reverse –counterintuitive- effect. Many lessons are thereby learned

International Capital Mobility in African Countries: Do the legal origins matter?

This paper investigates the Feldstein-Horioka coefficients and legal origins for 37 African countries using the recently developed panel cointegration techniques. The empirical findings reported in the paper reveal that savings and investment are nonstationary and cointegrated series. The estimated coefficients using DOLS is 0.58 for the sample as a whole for the period 1970-2006. However, there are marked differences in retentions ratios in each country group with ratio lowest in common law countries (0.34) compared to French civil law countries (0.85). These results imply that in the countries with strong legal protections of investors, capital tends to be mobile internationally than in countries with worse protection.Feldstein-Horioka coefficient; panel unit root tests; DOLS panel cointegration; Africa.

Co-movements Of Business Cycles In The Maghreb: Does Trade Matter?

Over the past two decades, the Maghreb Countries have initiated a liberalization process characterized by increasing trade flows and they have strengthened economic and financial linkages between their economies. In this paper, we demonstrate how co-movements of outputs would respond to this integration process. The nature of this relationship seems to be important for these countries because the decision to join an economic and monetary union would depend on how the union affects trade and co-movements. To this end, we estimate a panel model describing the effect of trade intensity on business cycles correlation over the period 1980-2005. Thereafter, to check the robustness of the results, we add many control variables commonly described in the literature. We use three estimation techniques: pooled OLS, fixed vs. random effects as well as 2SLS estimations. Our main results suggest that while trade intensity may help to harmonize business cycles in Maghreb countries, the magnitude of this harmonization is lower than for industrial countries. Moreover, intra-industry trade causes a reverse –counterintuitive- effect. Many lessons are thereby learned.Business Cycles, Trade Intensity, Intra-Industry Trade, Maghreb

DÉVELOPPEMENT FINANCIER, INSTABILITÉ FINANCIÈRE ET CROISSANCE ÉCONOMIQUE : UN RÉEXAMEN DE LA RELATION

Cet article fournit une évaluation empirique de la relation entre le développement financier et la croissance économique, en prenant en compte l’instabilité financière. L’analyse porte sur un échantillon de 71 pays et couvre la période 1960-2004. Les résultats obtenus à l'aide d'une analyse en coupe transversale et sur panel dynamique montrent une relation positive entre le développement financier et la croissance à court et à long terme. Nous trouvons également que l'instabilité financière est sans incidence sur la croissance économique et sur le lien entre cette dernière et le développement financier à long terme. Par contre, à court terme l'instabilité financière a un effet négatif aussi bien sur le taux de croissance économique que sur la relation entre le développement financier et la croissance. Abstract - This paper provides an empirical analysis of the relationship between financial development and economic growth. Different measures of financial instability are implemented in the analysis. Using cross section and dynamic panel for 71 countries over the period 1960-2004, the results show that there exists a positive link between financial development and economic growth both in the short and long run. On the one hand, we find that financial instability does not affect economic growth, nor the link between the latter and financial development in the long-term. On the other hand, in the short run, financial instability has a negative impact not only on economic growth but also on finance-growth nexus.DÉVELOPPEMENT FINANCIER, INSTABILITÉ FINANCIÈRE, CROISSANCE ÉCONOMIQUE

Energy Consumption and Economic Growth Revisited in African Countries

The aim of this paper is to provide new empirical evidence on the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for 21 African countries over the period from 1970 to 2006, using recently developed panel cointegration and causality tests. The countries are divided into two groups: net energy importers and net energy exporters. It is found that there exists a long-run equilibrium relationship between energy consumption, real GDP, prices, labor and capital for each group of countries as well as for the whole set of countries. This result is robust to possible cross-country dependence and still holds when allowing for multiple endogenous structural breaks, which can differ among countries. Furthermore, we find that decreasing energy consumption decreases growth and vice versa, and that increasing energy consumption increases growth, and vice versa, and that this applies for both energy exporters and importers. Finally, there is a marked difference in the cointegration relationship when country groups are considered.Africa, energy consumption, economic growth, panel cointegration, panel causality

Energy consumption and economic growth revisited in African countries

The aim of this paper is to provide new empirical evidence on the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for 21 African countries over the period from 1970 to 2006, using recently developed panel cointegration and causality tests. The countries are divided into two groups: net energy importers and net energy exporters. It is found that there exists a long-run equilibrium relationship between energy consumption, real GDP, prices, labor and capital for each group of countries as well as for the whole set of countries. This result is robust to possible cross-country dependence and still holds when allowing for multiple endogenous structural breaks, which can differ among countries. Furthermore, we find that decreasing energy consumption decreases growth and vice versa, and that increasing energy consumption increases growth, and vice versa, and that this applies for both energy exporters and importers. Finally, there is a marked difference in the cointegration relationship when country groups are considered

Energy consumption and economic growth revisited in African countries

La investigación bioantropológica en la Argentina fue muy activa tanto en la primera etapa, comienzos del siglo XVII a 1936, como en el período que va desde ese año hasta la actualidad. La primera etapa comienza con los monjes españoles de la época de la Conquista quienes se interesaron por la paleontología. Francisco Javier Muñiz realizó la primera actividad verdaderamente científica y también enseñó al joven Ameghino a excavar y reconocer piezas fósiles. Florentino Ameghino y sus dos hermanos -Carlos y Juan- contribuyeron al desarrollo de la paleontología en América. Otros investigadores destacados fueron: Moreno, Zeballos, Castellanos, Senet y Lehmann-Nitsche, entre otros. El segundo período contó con muchos investigadores en antropología biológica y otras ciencias afines, argentinos y europeos. En particular, hacia 1930 Marelli introdujo los cálculos estadísticos en Antropología y Fernando Pérez descubrió un nuevo sistema de orientación craneal. Posteriormente, Marcellino y Cocilovo introdujeron las primeras técnicas de análisis multivariado en el país, empleadas luego por la Antropología Biológica sudamericana. Estos hallazgos, sumados a la introducción de principios genéticos para interpretar movimientos migratorios, respuestas adaptativas bien diferenciadas y modelos estocásticos sobre asentamientos y migraciones humanas, cumplimentan los avances de la Antropología Biológica en la Argentina en los tiempos modernos. Este artículo intenta describir esa historia.Research in Argentine biological anthropology was very active in both the early period, from the early 18th century to 1936, and the one starting from that point to the present. The former period began with the Spanish monks who arrived during the Conquest and were interested in paleontology. Francisco Javier Muñiz did the first truly scientific activity and also taught young Florentino Ameghino to dig and recognize fossil pieces. Ameghino and his brothers -Carlos and Juan- contributed to the development of paleontology in the Americas. Other well-known researchers were: Moreno, Zeballos, Castellanos, Senet, and Lehmann-Nitsche, among others. The second period had many researchers in Physical Anthropology and several attached sciences, both Argentinian and European. In particular, around 1930 Marelli introduced the statistical calculus in anthropology and Fernando Pérez discovered a new cranial orientation system. Later, Marcellino and Cocilovo introduced the earliest techniques of multivariate analysis known in Argentina, employed for solving many South-American physical anthropological problems afterwards. These findings, along with the introduction of genetic principles for interpreting migratory movements and a number of well differentiated adaptive responses and stochastic models concerning man migration and settlements, fulfilled Argentina’s Physical Anthropology advances in modern times. This article attempts to describe that history.Sociedad Argentina de Antropologí

Inflation Effects on Finance-Growth Link: A Panel Smooth Threshold Approach

International audienceThis paper proposes an original framework to examine whether the strength of the relationship between financial development and economic growth, widely documented in the recent empirical literature, varies with the inflation rate. Using a Panel Smooth Threshold Regression for 71 developed and developing countries over the period 1960–2004, we find a non-linear link between financial development and economic growth: three equilibriums are identified with inflation rate. Then, there is an inflation threshold, for which finance ceases to increase economic growth. Our results suggest that for an inflation rate higher than 20%, economic growth is not, or is negatively, affected by financial development, whereas the impact of finance on growth is positive and significant for an inflation level below 10%.</p