Tales of future weather

Society is vulnerable to extreme weather events and, by extension, to human impacts on future events. As climate changes weather patterns will change. The search is on for more effective methodologies to aid decision-makers both in mitigation to avoid climate change and in adaptation to changes. The traditional approach uses ensembles of climate model simulations, statistical bias correction, downscaling to the spatial and temporal scales relevant to decision-makers, and then translation into quantities of interest. The veracity of this approach cannot be tested, and it faces in-principle challenges. Alternatively, numerical weather prediction models in a hypothetical climate setting can provide tailored narratives for high-resolution simulations of high-impact weather in a future climate. This 'tales of future weather' approach will aid in the interpretation of lower-resolution simulations. Arguably, it potentially provides complementary, more realistic and more physically consistent pictures of what future weather might look like

An empirical model for probabilistic decadal prediction: global attribution and regional hindcasts

Empirical models, designed to predict surface variables over seasons to decades ahead, provide useful benchmarks for comparison against the performance of dynamical forecast systems; they may also be employable as predictive tools for use by climate services in their own right. A new global empirical decadal prediction system is presented, based on a multiple linear regression approach designed to produce probabilistic output for comparison against dynamical models. A global attribution is performed initially to identify the important forcing and predictor components of the model . Ensemble hindcasts of surface air temperature anomaly fields are then generated, based on the forcings and predictors identified as important, under a series of different prediction ‘modes’ and their performance is evaluated. The modes include a real-time setting, a scenario in which future volcanic forcings are prescribed during the hindcasts, and an approach which exploits knowledge of the forced trend. A two-tier prediction system, which uses knowledge of future sea surface temperatures in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, is also tested, but within a perfect knowledge framework. Each mode is designed to identify sources of predictability and uncertainty, as well as investigate different approaches to the design of decadal prediction systems for operational use. It is found that the empirical model shows skill above that of persistence hindcasts for annual means at lead times of up to 10 years ahead in all of the prediction modes investigated. It is suggested that hindcasts which exploit full knowledge of the forced trend due to increasing greenhouse gases throughout the hindcast period can provide more robust estimates of model bias for the calibration of the empirical model in an operational setting. The two-tier system shows potential for improved real-time prediction, given the assumption that skilful predictions of large-scale modes of variability are available. The empirical model framework has been designed with enough flexibility to facilitate further developments, including the prediction of other surface variables and the ability to incorporate additional predictors within the model that are shown to contribute significantly to variability at the local scale. It is also semi-operational in the sense that forecasts have been produced for the coming decade and can be updated when additional data becomes available

The tensor-kinetic field in nuclear collisions

The role of the tensor terms in the Skyrme interaction is studied for their effect in dynamic calculations where non-zero contributions to the mean-field may arise, even when the starting nucleus, or nuclei are even-even and have no active time-odd potentials in the ground state. We study collisions in the test-bed 16 O- 16 O system, and give a qualitative analysis of the behaviour of the time-odd tensor-kinetic density, which only appears in the mean field Hamiltonian in the presence of the tensor force. We find an axial excitation of this density is induced by a collision

The Skyrme Tensor Force in Heavy Ion Collisions

Background: It is generally acknowledged that the time-dependent Hartree-Fock (TDHF) method provides a useful foundation for a fully microscopic many-body theory of low-energy heavy-ion reactions. The TDHF method is also known in nuclear physics in the small amplitude domain, where it provides a useful description of collective states, and is based on the mean-field formalism which has been a relatively successful approximation to the nuclear many-body problem. Currently, the TDHF theory is being widely used in the study of fusion excitation functions, fission, deep-inelastic scattering of heavy mass systems, while providing a natural foundation for many other studies. Purpose: With the advancement of computational power it is now possible to undertake TDHF calculations without any symmetry assumptions and incorporate the major strides made by the nuclear structure community in improving the energy density functionals used in these calculations. In particular, time-odd and tensor terms in these functionals are naturally present during the dynamical evolution, while being absent or minimally important for most static calculations. The parameters of these terms are determined by the requirement of Galilean invariance or local gauge invariance but their significance for the reaction dynamics have not been fully studied. This work addresses this question with emphasis on the tensor force. Method: The full version of the Skyrme force, including terms arising only from the Skyrme tensor force, is applied to the study of collisions within a completely symmetry-unrestricted TDHF implementation. Results: We examine the effect on upper fusion thresholds with and without the tensor force terms and find an effect on the fusion threshold energy of the order several MeV. Details of the distribution of the energy within terms in the energy density functional is also discussed. Conclusions: Terms in the energy density functional linked to the tensor force can play a non-negligible role in dynamic processes in nuclei

The Skyrme Tensor Force in Heavy Ion Collisions

Background: It is generally acknowledged that the time-dependent Hartree-Fock (TDHF) method provides a useful foundation for a fully microscopic many-body theory of low-energy heavy-ion reactions. The TDHF method is also known in nuclear physics in the small amplitude domain, where it provides a useful description of collective states, and is based on the mean-field formalism which has been a relatively successful approximation to the nuclear many-body problem. Currently, the TDHF theory is being widely used in the study of fusion excitation functions, fission, deep-inelastic scattering of heavy mass systems, while providing a natural foundation for many other studies. Purpose: With the advancement of computational power it is now possible to undertake TDHF calculations without any symmetry assumptions and incorporate the major strides made by the nuclear structure community in improving the energy density functionals used in these calculations. In particular, time-odd and tensor terms in these functionals are naturally present during the dynamical evolution, while being absent or minimally important for most static calculations. The parameters of these terms are determined by the requirement of Galilean invariance or local gauge invariance but their significance for the reaction dynamics have not been fully studied. This work addresses this question with emphasis on the tensor force. Method: The full version of the Skyrme force, including terms arising only from the Skyrme tensor force, is applied to the study of collisions within a completely symmetry-unrestricted TDHF implementation. Results: We examine the effect on upper fusion thresholds with and without the tensor force terms and find an effect on the fusion threshold energy of the order several MeV. Details of the distribution of the energy within terms in the energy density functional is also discussed. Conclusions: Terms in the energy density functional linked to the tensor force can play a non-negligible role in dynamic processes in nuclei

The tensor-kinetic field in nuclear collisions

The role of the tensor terms in the Skyrme interaction is studied for their effect in dynamic calculations where non-zero contributions to the mean-field may arise, even when the starting nucleus, or nuclei are even-even and have no active time-odd potentials in the ground state. We study collisions in the test-bed 16O-16O system, and give a qualitative analysis of the behaviour of the time-odd tensor-kinetic density, which only appears in the mean field Hamiltonian in the presence of the tensor force. We find an axial excitation of this density is induced by a collision