Developing a predictive modelling capacity for a climate change-vulnerable blanket bog habitat: Assessing 1961-1990 baseline relationships

Aim: Understanding the spatial distribution of high priority habitats and developing predictive models using climate and environmental variables to replicate these distributions are desirable conservation goals. The aim of this study was to model and elucidate the contributions of climate and topography to the distribution of a priority blanket bog habitat in Ireland, and to examine how this might inform the development of a climate change predictive capacity for peat-lands in Ireland. Methods: Ten climatic and two topographic variables were recorded for grid cells with a spatial resolution of 1010 km, covering 87% of the mainland land surface of Ireland. Presence-absence data were matched to these variables and generalised linear models (GLMs) fitted to identify the main climatic and terrain predictor variables for occurrence of the habitat. Candidate predictor variables were screened for collinearity, and the accuracy of the final fitted GLM was evaluated using fourfold cross-validation based on the area under the curve (AUC) derived from a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plot. The GLM predicted habitat occurrence probability maps were mapped against the actual distributions using GIS techniques. Results: Despite the apparent parsimony of the initial GLM using only climatic variables, further testing indicated collinearity among temperature and precipitation variables for example. Subsequent elimination of the collinear variables and inclusion of elevation data produced an excellent performance based on the AUC scores of the final GLM. Mean annual temperature and total mean annual precipitation in combination with elevation range were the most powerful explanatory variable group among those explored for the presence of blanket bog habitat. Main conclusions: The results confirm that this habitat distribution in general can be modelled well using the non-collinear climatic and terrain variables tested at the grid resolution used. Mapping the GLM-predicted distribution to the observed distribution produced useful results in replicating the projected occurrence of the habitat distribution over an extensive area. The methods developed will usefully inform future climate change predictive modelling for Irelan

A NEW PARADIGM FOR THE XXIth CENTURY

Lecture held at the Nagano lAYS Congress July 2000</span

Composition and spatial structure of dwarf shrub heath in Norway

Detailed descriptions of individual vegetation types shown on vegetation maps can improve the ways in which the composition and spatial structure within the types are understood. The authors therefore examined dwarf shrub heath, a vegetation type covering large areas and found in many parts of the Norwegian mountains. They used data from point samples obtained in a wall-to-wall area frame survey. The point sampling method provided data that gave a good understanding of the composition and structure of the vegetation type, but also revealed a difference between variation within the vegetation type itself (intra-class variation) and variation resulting from the inclusion of other types of vegetation inside the map polygons (landscape variation). Intra-class variation reflected differences in the botanical composition of the vegetation type itself, whereas landscape variation represented differences in the land-cover composition of the broader landscape in which the vegetation type was found. Both types of variation were related to environmental gradients. The authors conclude that integrated point sampling method is an efficient way to achieve increased understanding of the content of a vegetation map and can be implemented as a supporting activity during a survey.publishedVersio