Assessing the risk of bluetongue to UK livestock: uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of a temperature-dependent model for the basic reproduction number

Since 1998 bluetongue virus (BTV), which causes bluetongue, a non-contagious, insect-borne infectious disease of ruminants, has expanded northwards in Europe in an unprecedented series of incursions, suggesting that there is a risk to the large and valuable British livestock industry. The basic reproduction number, R0, provides a powerful tool with which to assess the level of risk posed by a disease. In this paper, we compute R0 for BTV in a population comprising two host species, cattle and sheep. Estimates for each parameter which influences R0 were obtained from the published literature, using those applicable to the UK situation wherever possible. Moreover, explicit temperature dependence was included for those parameters for which it had been quantified. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses based on Latin hypercube sampling and partial rank correlation coefficients identified temperature, the probability of transmission from host to vector and the vector to host ratio as being most important in determining the magnitude of R0. The importance of temperature reflects the fact that it influences many processes involved in the transmission of BTV and, in particular, the biting rate, the extrinsic incubation period and the vector mortality rate

Port growth and regional development in East Anglia

SIGLELD:5294.94(LUT-TT--8301) / BLDSC - British Library Document Supply CentreGBUnited Kingdo

The economics of barge-carrying ships A case study

SIGLELD:5294.94(LUT-TT--8304) / BLDSC - British Library Document Supply CentreGBUnited Kingdo

Cloning of bovine prolactin cDNA and evolutionary implications of its sequence

Prolactin, growth hormone, and chorionic somatomammotropin (placental lactogen) constitute a set of related polypeptides believed to derive from a common evolutionary ancestor protein. We have cloned and sequenced DNA complementary to the mRNA coding for bovine prolactin. This cDNA contains 702 bases corresponding to 10 amino acids in the leader peptide, all 199 amino acids of the hormone, and 75 nucleotides in the 3' untranslated region of the mRNA. Nucleotide sequence analysis of this cDNA permitted the identification of 10 amino acids in the signal peptide, plus the correction or elucidation of amino acid assignments at 16 sites where aspartic and glutamic acids had not been distinguished from their amides by amino acid sequencing. Codon usage in bovine prolactin mRNA is nonrandom, but, similarly to rat and human prolactins, it does not exhibit the strong preference for G or C in codon third positions seen in bovine, rat, and human growth hormone mRNAs. The translational termination signal in bovine prolactin in UAA, also the same as in rat and human prolactins and differing from the UAG "stop" codon used in bovine, rat, and human growth hormones and human chorionic somatomammotropin. The amino acid and mRNA nucleotide sequences of bovine, rat, and human prolactins and growth hormones were compared by several techniques based on various theories of molecular evolution. The comparison of prolactin to growth hormone is consistent in all three species, suggesting that the genes for these two hormones diverged about 350 million years ago. However, comparisons among the three prolactins or among the three growth hormones to determine the times of evolutionary divergence of the three species generated values that were inconsistent with each other and with the fossil record. Analysis of these discrepancies suggests that the genes for prolactin and growth hormone may now be evolving by different mechanisms