Development of a population-based microsimulation model of osteoarthritis in Canada

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of the study was to develop a population-based simulation model of osteoarthritis (OA) in Canada that can be used to quantify the future health and economic burden of OA under a range of scenarios for changes in the OA risk factors and treatments. In this article we describe the overall structure of the model, sources of data, derivation of key input parameters for the epidemiological component of the model, and preliminary validation studies. DESIGN: We used the Population Health Model (POHEM) platform to develop a stochastic continuous-time microsimulation model of physician-diagnosed OA. Incidence rates were calibrated to agree with administrative data for the province of British Columbia, Canada. The effect of obesity on OA incidence and the impact of OA on health-related quality of life (HRQL) were modeled using Canadian national surveys. RESULTS: Incidence rates of OA in the model increase approximately linearly with age in both sexes between the ages of 50 and 80 and plateau in the very old. In those aged 50+, the rates are substantially higher in women. At baseline, the prevalence of OA is 11.5%, 13.6% in women and 9.3% in men. The OA hazard ratios for obesity are 2.0 in women and 1.7 in men. The effect of OA diagnosis on HRQL, as measured by the Health Utilities Index Mark 3 (HUI3), is to reduce it by 0.10 in women and 0.14 in men. CONCLUSIONS: We describe the development of the first population-based microsimulation model of OA. Strengths of this model include the use of large population databases to derive the key parameters and the application of modern microsimulation technology. Limitations of the model reflect the limitations of administrative and survey data and gaps in the epidemiological and HRQL literature

Coronal Diagnostics from Narrowband Images around 30.4 nm

Images taken in the band centered at 30.4 nm are routinely used to map the radiance of the He II Ly alpha line on the solar disk. That line is one of the strongest, if not the strongest, line in the EUV observed in the solar spectrum, and one of the few lines in that wavelength range providing information on the upper chromosphere or lower transition region. However, when observing the off-limb corona the contribution from the nearby Si XI 30.3 nm line can become significant. In this work we aim at estimating the relative contribution of those two lines in the solar corona around the minimum of solar activity. We combine measurements from CDS taken in August 2008 with temperature and density profiles from semiempirical models of the corona to compute the radiances of the two lines, and of other representative coronal lines (e.g., Mg X 62.5 nm, Si XII 52.1 nm). Considering both diagnosed quantities from line ratios (temperatures and densities) and line radiances in absolute units, we obtain a good overall match between observations and models. We find that the Si XI line dominates the He II line from just above the limb up to ~2 R_Sun in streamers, while its contribution to narrowband imaging in the 30.4 nm band is expected to become smaller, even negligible in the corona beyond ~2 - 3 R_Sun, the precise value being strongly dependent on the coronal temperature profile.Comment: 26 pages, 11 figures; to be published in: Solar Physic

Evidence summaries and recommendations from the international evidence-based guideline for the assessment and management of polycystic ovary syndrome: assessment and treatment of infertility

STUDY QUESTION:What is the recommended assessment and management of infertile women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS), based on the best available evidence, clinical expertize and consumer preference? SUMMARY ANSWER:International evidence-based guidelines, including 44 recommendations and practice points, addressed prioritized questions to promote consistent, evidence-based care and improve the experience and health outcomes of infertile women with PCOS. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY:Previous guidelines on PCOS lacked rigorous evidence-based processes, failed to engage consumer and multidisciplinary perspectives or were outdated. The assessment and management of infertile women with PCOS are inconsistent. The needs of women with PCOS are not being adequately met and evidence practice gaps persist. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS SETTING METHODS:Governance included a six continent international advisory and a project board, a multidisciplinary international guideline development group (GDG), consumer and translation committees. Extensive health professional and consumer engagement informed the guideline scope and priorities. The engaged international society-nominated panel included endocrinology, gynaecology, reproductive endocrinology, obstetrics, public health and other experts, alongside consumers, project management, evidence synthesis and translation experts. Thirty-seven societies and organizations covering 71 countries engaged in the process. Extensive online communication and two face-to-face meetings over 15 months addressed 19 prioritized clinical questions involving nine evidence-based reviews and 10 narrative reviews. Evidence-based recommendations (EBRs) were formulated prior to consensus voting within the guideline panel. STUDY DESIGN SIZE DURATION:International evidence-based guideline development engaged professional societies and consumer organizations with multidisciplinary experts and women with PCOS directly involved at all stages. A (AGREE) II-compliant processes were followed, with extensive evidence synthesis. The Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) framework was applied across evidence quality, desirable and undesirable consequences, feasibility, acceptability, cost, implementation and ultimately recommendation strength. The guideline was peer-reviewed by special interest groups across our partner and collaborating societies and consumer organizations, was independently assessed against AGREE II criteria and underwent methodological review. This guideline was approved by all members of the GDG and has been approved by the NHMRC. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE:The quality of evidence (QOE) for the EBRs in the assessment and management of infertility in PCOS included very low (n = 1), low (n = 9) and moderate (n = 4) quality with no EBRs based on high-quality evidence. The guideline provides 14 EBRs, 10 clinical consensus recommendations (CCRs) and 20 clinical practice points on the assessment and management of infertility in PCOS. Key changes in this guideline include emphasizing evidence-based fertility therapy, including cheaper and safer fertility management. LIMITATIONS REASONS FOR CAUTION:Overall evidence is generally of low to moderate quality, requiring significantly greater research in this neglected, yet common condition. Regional health systems vary and a process for adaptation of this guideline is provided. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS:The international guideline for the assessment and management of infertility in PCOS provides clinicians with clear advice on best practice based on the best available evidence, expert multidisciplinary input and consumer preferences. Research recommendations have been generated and a comprehensive multifaceted dissemination and translation program supports the guideline with an integrated evaluation program. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTERESTS:The guideline was primarily funded by the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia (NHMRC) supported by a partnership with ESHRE and the American Society for Reproductive Medicine (ASRM). GDG members did not receive payment. Travel expenses were covered by the sponsoring organizations. Disclosures of conflicts of interest were declared at the outset and updated throughout the guideline process, aligned with NHMRC guideline processes. Dr Costello has declared shares in Virtus Health and past sponsorship from Merck Serono for conference presentations. Prof. Norman has declared a minor shareholder interest in the IVF unit Fertility SA, travel support from Merck and grants from Ferring. Prof. Norman also has scientific advisory board duties for Ferring. The remaining authors have no conflicts of interest to declare.This article was not externally peer-reviewed by Human Reproduction Open.M F Costello, M L Misso, A Balen, J Boyle, L Devoto, R M Garad ... et al

Bedmap2: improved ice bed, surface and thickness datasets for Antarctica

We present Bedmap2, a new suite of gridded products describing surface elevation, ice-thickness and the seafloor and subglacial bed elevation of the Antarctic south of 60° S. We derived these products using data from a variety of sources, including many substantial surveys completed since the original Bedmap compilation (Bedmap1) in 2001. In particular, the Bedmap2 ice thickness grid is made from 25 million measurements, over two orders of magnitude more than were used in Bedmap1. In most parts of Antarctica the subglacial landscape is visible in much greater detail than was previously available and the improved data-coverage has in many areas revealed the full scale of mountain ranges, valleys, basins and troughs, only fragments of which were previously indicated in local surveys. The derived statistics for Bedmap2 show that the volume of ice contained in the Antarctic ice sheet (27 million km3) and its potential contribution to sea-level rise (58 m) are similar to those of Bedmap1, but the mean thickness of the ice sheet is 4.6% greater, the mean depth of the bed beneath the grounded ice sheet is 72 m lower and the area of ice sheet grounded on bed below sea level is increased by 10%. The Bedmap2 compilation highlights several areas beneath the ice sheet where the bed elevation is substantially lower than the deepest bed indicated by Bedmap1. These products, along with grids of data coverage and uncertainty, provide new opportunities for detailed modelling of the past and future evolution of the Antarctic ice sheets

Bedmap2: improved ice bed, surface and thickness datasets for Antarctica

We present Bedmap2, a new suite of gridded products describing surface elevation, ice-thickness and the seafloor and subglacial bed elevation of the Antarctic south of 60° S. We derived these products using data from a variety of sources, including many substantial surveys completed since the original Bedmap compilation (Bedmap1) in 2001. In particular, the Bedmap2 ice thickness grid is made from 25 million measurements, over two orders of magnitude more than were used in Bedmap1. In most parts of Antarctica the subglacial landscape is visible in much greater detail than was previously available and the improved data-coverage has in many areas revealed the full scale of mountain ranges, valleys, basins and troughs, only fragments of which were previously indicated in local surveys. The derived statistics for Bedmap2 show that the volume of ice contained in the Antarctic ice sheet (27 million km3) and its potential contribution to sea-level rise (58 m) are similar to those of Bedmap1, but the mean thickness of the ice sheet is 4.6% greater, the mean depth of the bed beneath the grounded ice sheet is 72 m lower and the area of ice sheet grounded on bed below sea level is increased by 10%. The Bedmap2 compilation highlights several areas beneath the ice sheet where the bed elevation is substantially lower than the deepest bed indicated by Bedmap1. These products, along with grids of data coverage and uncertainty, provide new opportunities for detailed modelling of the past and future evolution of the Antarctic ice sheets