Species, taxonomic and functional group diversities of terrestrial mammals at risk under climate change and land use/cover change scenarios in Mexico

There is a need to revise the framework used to project species risks under climate change (CC) and land-use/cover change (LUCC) scenarios. We built a climate change risk index using the latest IPCC framework, where risk is a function of vulnerability (sensitivity and adaptive capacity), exposure, and hazard. We incorporated future LUCC scenarios as part of the exposure component. We combined a trait-based approach based on biological characteristics of species with a correlative approach based on ecological niche modeling, assigning risk scores to species, taxonomic (orders), and functional (trophic, body size, and locomotion) groups of terrestrial mammals occurring in Mexico. We identified 15 species projected to lose their climatic suitability. Of the 11 taxonomic orders, Eulipotyphla, Didelphimorphia, Artiodactyla, and Lagomorpha had the highest risk scores. Of the 19 trophic groups, piscivores, insectivores under canopy, frugivores-granivores, herbivores browser, and myrmecophagous had the highest risk scores. Of the 5 body-sized groups, large-sized species (> 15 kg) had highest risk scores. Of the 7 locomotion groups, arboreal and semi-aquatics had highest risk scores. CC and LUCC scenarios reduced suitable areas of species potential distributions by 37.5% (with CC), and 51% (with CC and LUCC) under a limited full-dispersal assumption. Reductions in suitable areas of species potential distributions increased to 50.2% (with CC), and 52.4% (with CC and LUCC) under a non-dispersal assumption. Species-rich areas (> 75% species) projected 36% (with CC) and 57% (with CC and LUCC) reductions in suitability for 2070. Shifts in climatic suitability projections of species-rich areas increased in number of species in northeast and southeast Mexico and decreased in northwest and southern Mexico, suggesting important species turnover. High risk projections under future CC and LUCC scenarios for species, taxonomic and functional group diversities, and species-rich areas of terrestrial mammals highlight trends in different impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem function

Sistema de informação em AIDS: limites e possibilidades

O artigo faz uma análise do atual Sistema de Informação (SI) em AIDS, apontando as dificuldades com que se defrontou ao buscar caracterizar o modo como ocorria e evoluía em 1995 a epidemia da AIDS na Administração Regional de Saúde de Pirituba-Perus (ARS-8) do município de São Paulo. São enumeradas algumas críticas que a Vigilância Epidemiológica e o SI vêm sofrendo nos últimos anos, tais como a centralização e a desagregação das informações; dados que contemplam aspectos eminentemente biológico e a utilização de formulários complexos. Estas questões somadas às dificuldades que se impuseram ao se buscar caracterizar a epidemia na região, revelou que o sistema, tal como se encontrava estruturado, dificultava a caracterização da epidemia e o acompanhamento sistemático pelos níveis locais de saúde. Chama-se a atenção para a necessidade de revisão da finalidade do SI em AIDS, da natureza e da qualidade dos dados coletados. Reitera-se a importância da integração dos diversos bancos de dados sócio-demográficos e do enfoque microlocalizado do Sl para o Distrito de Saúde.The article makes an analysis of the current System of Information (SI) in AIDS, aiming the difficulties with that was confronted when looking for to characterize the way as it happened and it developed in 1995 the epidemic of the AIDS in the Regional Administration of Health of Pirituba-Perus (ARS-8) of the municipal district of São Paulo. Some are enumerated critics that the Epidemic ,surveillance and the SI they come suffering in the last years, such as the centralization and the disaggregation of the information; the data that contemplate aspects eminently biological, the use of complex forms. These subjects, added to the difficulties that were imposed to the e/she/it to look for to characterize the epidemic in the area, he/she revealed that the system, just as her found structured, it hindered the characterization of the epidemic and the systematic accompaniment for the local levels of health. He/she gets himself the attention for the need of revision of the purpose of the SI in AIDS, of the nature and of the quality of the collected data. It is reiterated the importance of the integration of the several databases partner-demografics of the focus microlocalizado of Sl for the District of Health