Talking Heads: Measuring Elite Personality Using Speech

Political scientists have long considered ideology, partisanship, and constituency in determining how members of the United States Congress make decisions. Meanwhile, psycholo-\ud gists have held that personality traits play central roles in decision-making. In this paper, we apply recent advances in machine learning (Mairesse et al. 2007) to measure Congressmember personality traits using floor speeches from 1996–2014. We show that these estimates are robust to concerns about strategic behavior and generally conform with findings in the behavior literature linking ideology with the Big Five (e.g. Gerber et al. 2010). We also provide two examples of the utility of our method, one examining the impact of personality on elite survey non-response and the other showing how the conscientiousness of members of Congress affects the contents of bill proposals

Tentative Decisions

Political scientists have long considered ideology, partisanship, and constituency in determining how members of the United States Congress make decisions. Meanwhile, psychologists have held that personality traits play central roles in decision-making. Here, we bridge these literatures by offering a framework for modeling how personality influences legislative behavior. Drawing from experimental economics and neuropsychology, we identify core cognitive constraints for the “Big Five” personality model, parameterizing them in ways useful for crafting formal models of legislative behavior. We then show one example of the applicability of this framework by creating a formal decision-theoretic model of constituency communicatio

(Sympathy for) the Devil You Know: Openness, Psychological Entropy, and the Case of the Incumbency Advantage

Why do some individuals prefer lesser-known, riskier experiences over more well-known options in life? In this paper, we focus on the case of the electoral advantage to incumbency, and the role that psychological entropy reduction can play in undermining that advantage among individuals who lack simplifying heuristics, such as party brand loyalty. We build on recent work in political psychology, applying a more general political psychology framework linking the Big Five personality trait of Openness to a compulsion to gather and process information. Using data from the 2014 and 2016 Cooperative Congressional Election Studies, we find more Open respondents are more willing to vote for more uncertain House challengers at higher rates, but only among Independent respondents who are unable to rely on partisan cues to simplify the psychological entropy presented by such challengers. This suggests Openness captures relative preferences for encountering and reducing psychological entropy rather than traditionally defined risk preferences

What Trump and Clinton’s personality traits tell us about how they might govern as president.

During the course of the 2016 presidential election, the topic of candidate temperament and fitness for office has been widely discussed. Adam J. Ramey, Jonathan D. Klingler, and Gary E. Hollibaugh, Jr. show how their personality traits can be estimated from their speech, and what these estimates imply for how they might govern from the White House: Clinton is likely to push substantive policies and back them up, while Trump would push for bolder and more costly proposals, without as much follow-through

Shotgun metagenomic analysis of microbial communities from the Loxahatchee nature preserve in the Florida Everglades.

BackgroundCurrently, much is unknown about the taxonomic diversity and the mechanisms of methane metabolism in the Florida Everglades ecosystem. The Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge is a section of the Florida Everglades that is almost entirely unstudied in regard to taxonomic profiling. This short report analyzes the metagenome of soil samples from this Refuge to investigate the predominant taxa, as well as the abundance of genes involved in environmentally significant metabolic pathways related to methane production (nitrogen fixation and dissimilatory sulfite reduction).MethodsShotgun metagenomic sequencing using the Illumina platform was performed on 17 soil samples from four different sites within the Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge, and underwent quality control, assembly, and annotation. The soil from each sample was tested for water content and concentrations of organic carbon and nitrogen.ResultsThe three most common phyla of bacteria for every site were Actinobacteria, Acidobacteria, and Proteobacteria; however, there was variation in relative phylum composition. The most common phylum of Archaea was Euryarchaeota for all sites. Alpha and beta diversity analyses indicated significant congruity in taxonomic diversity in most samples from Sites 1, 3, and 4 and negligible congruity between Site 2 and the other sites. Shotgun metagenomic sequencing revealed the presence of biogeochemical biomarkers of particular interest (e.g., mrcA, nifH, and dsrB) within the samples. The normalized abundances of mcrA, nifH, and dsrB exhibited a positive correlation with nitrogen concentration and water content, and a negative correlation with organic carbon concentration.ConclusionThis Everglades soil metagenomic study allowed examination of wetlands biological processes and showed expected correlations between measured organic constituents and prokaryotic gene frequency. Additionally, the taxonomic profile generated gives a basis for the diversity of prokaryotic microbial life throughout the Everglades

Convergence of measures on compactifications of locally symmetric spaces

We conjecture that the set of homogeneous probability measures on the maximal Satake compactification of an arithmetic locally symmetric space S=Γ∖G/K is compact. More precisely, given a sequence of homogeneous probability measures on S, we expect that any weak limit is homogeneous with support contained in precisely one of the boundary components (including S itself). We introduce several tools to study this conjecture and we prove it in a number of cases, including when G=SL3(R) and Γ=SL3(Z)

Pathway to a land-neutral expansion of Brazilian renewable fuel production

Biofuels are currently the only available bulk renewable fuel. They have, however, limited expansion potential due to high land requirements and associated risks for biodiversity, food security, and land conflicts. We therefore propose to increase output from ethanol refineries in a land-neutral methanol pathway: surplus CO2-streams from fermentation are combined with H2 from renewably powered electrolysis to synthesize methanol. We illustrate this pathway with the Brazilian sugarcane ethanol industry using a spatio-temporal model. The fuel output of existing ethanol generation facilities can be increased by 43%–49% or ~100 TWh without using additional land. This amount is sufficient to cover projected growth in Brazilian biofuel demand in 2030. We identify a trade-off between renewable energy generation technologies: wind power requires the least amount of land whereas a mix of wind and solar costs the least. In the cheapest scenario, green methanol is competitive to fossil methanol at an average carbon price of 95€ tCO2−1