A DYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF HUMAN WELFARE IN A WARMING PLANET”

Climate stabilization requires low GHG emissions. Is this consistent with nondecreasing human welfare? Our welfare index, called quality of life (QuoL), emphasizes education, knowledge, and the environment. We calibrate a multigenerational model with education, physical capital, knowledge and the environment. We reject discounted utilitarianism and adopt, first, the Intergenerational Maximin criterion, and, second, Human Development Optimization, that maximizes the QuoL of the first generation subject to a given future rate of growth. The computed paths have a QuoL higher than the year 2000 level for all generations. They require doubling the labor resources devoted to the creation of knowledge, whereas the fractions of labor allocated to consumption and leisure are similar to the reference ones. Higher growth rates require substantial increases in the fraction of labor devoted to education, together with moderate increases in the fractions of labor devoted to knowledge and the investment in physical capital.Quality of life, climate change, education, maximin, growth

Towards sustainable development of the coastal resources of Lingayen Gulf, Phlilppines

Coastal zone management, Resource development, Philippines, Lingayen Gulf,

A Dynamic Analysis of Human Welfare in a Warming Planet

Climate science indicates that climate stabilization requires low GHG emissions. Is this consistent with nondecreasing human welfare? Our welfare index, called quality of life (QuoL), emphasizes education, knowledge, and the environment. We construct and calibrate a multigenerational model with intertemporal links provided by education, physical capital, knowledge and the environment. We reject discounted utilitarianism and adopt, first, the Intergenerational Maximin criterion, and, second, Human Development Optimization, that maximizes the QuoL of the first generation subject to a given future rate of growth. We apply these criteria to our calibrated model via a novel algorithm inspired by the turnpike property. The computed paths yield levels of QuoL higher than the year 2000 level for all generations. They require the doubling of the fraction of labor resources devoted to the creation of knowledge relative to the reference level, whereas the fractions of labor allocated to consumption and leisure are similar to the reference ones. On the other hand, higher growth rates require substantial increases in the fraction of labor devoted to education, together with moderate increases in the fractions of labor devoted to knowledge and the investment in physical capital.Quality of life, Climate change, Education, Maximin, Growth

Intergenerational justice when future worlds are uncertain

Let there be a positive (exogenous) probability that, at each date, the human species will disappear. We postulate an Ethical Observer (EO) who maximizes intertemporal welfare under this uncertainty, with expected-utility preferences. Various social welfare criteria entail alternative von Neumann- Morgenstern utility functions for the EO: utilitarian, Rawlsian, and an extension of the latter that corrects for the size of population. Our analysis covers, first, a cake-eating economy (without production), where the utilitarian and Rawlsian recommend the same allocation. Second, a productive economy with education and capital, where it turns out that the recommendations of the two EOs are in general different. But when the utilitarian program diverges, then we prove it is optimal for the extended Rawlsian to ignore the uncertainty concerning the possible disappearance of the human species in the future. We conclude by discussing the implications for intergenerational welfare maximization in the presence of global warming.Discounted utilitarianism, Rawlsian, sustainability, maximin, uncertainty, expected utility, von Neumann-Morgenstern, dynamic welfare maximization.

A dynamic analysis of human welfare in a warming planet

Climate science indicates that climate stabilization requires low GHG emissions. Is this consistent with nondecreasing human welfare? Our welfare or utility index emphasizes education, knowledge, and the environment. We construct and calibrate a multigenerational model with intertemporal links provided by education, physical capital, knowledge and the environment. We reject discounted utilitarianism and adopt, first, the Pure Sustainability Optimization (or Intergenerational Maximin) criterion, and, second, the Sustainable Growth Optimization criterion, that maximizes the utility of the first generation subject to a given future rate of growth. We apply these criteria to our calibrated model via a novel algorithm inspired by the turnpike property. The computed paths yield levels of utility higher than the level at reference year 2000 for all generations. They require the doubling of the fraction of labor resources devoted to the creation of knowledge relative to the reference level, whereas the fractions of labor allocated to consumption and leisure are similar to the reference ones. On the other hand, higher growth rates require substantial increases in the fraction of labor devoted to education, together with moderate increases in the fractions of labor devoted to knowledge and the investment in physical capital.Climate change, education, Maximin, growth.

North-South convergence and the allocation of CO2 emissions

We postulate a two-region world, comprised of North (calibrated after the US) and South (calibrated after China). Our optimization results show the compatibility of the following three desiderata: (1) Global CO2 emissions follow a conservative path that leads to the stabilization of concentrations at 450 ppm. (2) North and South converge to a path of sustained growth at 1% per year (28.2% per generation) in 2075. (3) During the transition to the steady state, North also grows at 1% per year while South’s rates of growth are markedly higher. The transition paths require a drastic reduction of the share of emissions allocated to North, large investments in knowledge, both in North and South, as well as very large investments in education in South. Surprisingly, in order to sustain North’s utility growth rate, some output must be transferred from South to North during the transition. Although undoubtedly subject to many caveats, our results support a degree of optimism by providing prima facie evidence of the possibility of tackling climate change in a way that is fair both across generations and across regions while allowing for positive rates of human development.Convergence, CO2 emissions, North-South, climate change, sustainability, growth.

Patrones en el desarrollo del razonamiento inferencial informal: introducción a las pruebas de significancia en el bachillerato

En este trabajo se presentan los resultados iniciales de la aplicación de una actividad correspondiente a la introducción a las pruebas de significancia a estudiantes de bachillerato (17- 18 años) con la intención de analizar el tipo de acciones y razonamiento que exhiben partiendo de que han sido instruidos en temas básicos de inferencia estadística mediante un enfoque informal (uso de simulaciones aleatorias y distribuciones muestrales). Se observó un uso y comprensión de conceptos estadísticos como variabilidad, distribución y valores críticos para generar un criterio de toma de decisiones, así como ciertos errores y limitaciones que podrían obstaculizar el desarrollo de un razonamiento inferencial informal apropiado

Full-vector analysis of a realistic photonic crystal fiber

We analyze the guiding problem in a realistic photonic crystal fiber using a novel full-vector modal technique, a biorthogonal modal method based on the nonselfadjoint character of the electromagnetic propagation in a fiber. Dispersion curves of guided modes for different fiber structural parameters are calculated along with the 2D transverse intensity distribution of the fundamental mode. Our results match those achieved in recent experiments, where the feasibility of this type of fiber was shown.Comment: 3 figures, submitted to Optics Letter

Integration in European coal markets, 1833–1913

This article analyses coal market integration in Europe over the long nineteenth century. The market integration of coal, a key commodity associated with the industrial revolution, is an aspect of European economic history that has received little attention. The literature on the evolution of markets has concentrated on agricultural products, mostly cereals. This article examines intra- and international market integration in the principal coal-producing countries, Britain, Germany, France, and Belgium; and adds three main consuming southern European countries to the analysis of the international market. It provides new evidence on prices, as well as trade, and uses a straightforward approach to address coal price behaviour. Despite shocks, clear trends toward integration in both domestic and international markets can be observed, even if by one of our measures the latter started at a later date. Processes of market integration, however, seemed to slow from the end of the nineteenth century. Explanations are offered as to the causes of the extent and timing of integrations: reductions, mainly, in transportation costs, but also in information costs, and, in the international market, protectionism. The influence of cartels, on the other hand, may have been limited, particularly in the international market