High-Resolution Agent-Based Modeling of COVID-19 Spreading in a Small Town

Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, public health authorities and the general population are striving to achieve a balance between safety and normalcy. Ever changing conditions call for the development of theory and simulation tools to finely describe multiple strata of society while supporting the evaluation of “what-if” scenarios. Particularly important is to assess the effectiveness of potential testing approaches and vaccination strategies. Here, an agent-based modeling platform is proposed to simulate the spreading of COVID-19 in small towns and cities, with a single-individual resolution. The platform is validated on real data from New Rochelle, NY—one of the first outbreaks registered in the United States. Supported by expert knowledge and informed by reported data, the model incorporates detailed elements of the spreading within a statistically realistic population. Along with pertinent functionality such as testing, treatment, and vaccination options, the model accounts for the burden of other illnesses with symptoms similar to COVID-19. Unique to the model is the possibility to explore different testing approaches—in hospitals or drive-through facilities—and vaccination strategies that could prioritize vulnerable groups. Decision-making by public authorities could benefit from the model, for its fine-grain resolution, open-source nature, and wide range of features

Altered sirtuin expression is associated with node-positive breast cancer

Sirtuins are genes implicated in cellular and organismal ageing. Consequently, they are speculated to be involved in diseases of ageing including cancer. Various cancers with widely differing prognosis have been shown to have differing and characteristic expression of these genes; however, the relationship between sirtuin expression and cancer progression is unclear. In order to correlate cancer progression and sirtuin expression, we have assessed sirtuin expression as a function of primary cell ageing and compared sirtuin expression in normal, ‘nonmalignant' breast biopsies to breast cancer biopsies using real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Levels of SIRT7 expression were significantly increased in breast cancer (P<0.0001). Increased levels of SIRT3 and SIRT7 transcription were also associated with node-positive breast cancer (P<0.05 and P<0.0001, respectively). This study has demonstrated differential sirtuin expression between nonmalignant and malignant breast tissue, with consequent diagnostic and therapeutic implications

Utilisation of an operative difficulty grading scale for laparoscopic cholecystectomy

Background A reliable system for grading operative difficulty of laparoscopic cholecystectomy would standardise description of findings and reporting of outcomes. The aim of this study was to validate a difficulty grading system (Nassar scale), testing its applicability and consistency in two large prospective datasets. Methods Patient and disease-related variables and 30-day outcomes were identified in two prospective cholecystectomy databases: the multi-centre prospective cohort of 8820 patients from the recent CholeS Study and the single-surgeon series containing 4089 patients. Operative data and patient outcomes were correlated with Nassar operative difficultly scale, using Kendall’s tau for dichotomous variables, or Jonckheere–Terpstra tests for continuous variables. A ROC curve analysis was performed, to quantify the predictive accuracy of the scale for each outcome, with continuous outcomes dichotomised, prior to analysis. Results A higher operative difficulty grade was consistently associated with worse outcomes for the patients in both the reference and CholeS cohorts. The median length of stay increased from 0 to 4 days, and the 30-day complication rate from 7.6 to 24.4% as the difficulty grade increased from 1 to 4/5 (both p < 0.001). In the CholeS cohort, a higher difficulty grade was found to be most strongly associated with conversion to open and 30-day mortality (AUROC = 0.903, 0.822, respectively). On multivariable analysis, the Nassar operative difficultly scale was found to be a significant independent predictor of operative duration, conversion to open surgery, 30-day complications and 30-day reintervention (all p < 0.001). Conclusion We have shown that an operative difficulty scale can standardise the description of operative findings by multiple grades of surgeons to facilitate audit, training assessment and research. It provides a tool for reporting operative findings, disease severity and technical difficulty and can be utilised in future research to reliably compare outcomes according to case mix and intra-operative difficulty

Breast cancer patients' clinical outcome measures are associated with Src kinase family member expression

&lt;p&gt;BACKGROUND: This study determined mRNA expression levels for Src kinase family (SFK) members in breast tissue specimens and assessed protein expression levels of prominent SFK members in invasive breast cancer to establish associations with clinical outcome. Ki67 was investigated to determine association between SFK members and proliferation.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;METHODS: The mRNA expression levels were assessed for eight SFK members by quantitative real-time PCR. Immunohistochemistry was performed for c-Src, Lyn, Lck and Ki67.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;RESULTS: mRNA expression was quantified in all tissue samples. SRC and LYN were the most highly expressed in malignant tissue. LCK was more highly expressed in oestrogen receptor (ER)-negative, compared with ER-positive tumours. High cytoplasmic Src kinase protein expression was significantly associated with decreased disease-specific survival. Lyn was not associated with survival at any cellular location. High membrane Lck expression was significantly associated with improved survival. Ki67 expression correlated with tumour grade and nuclear c-Src, but was not associated with survival.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;CONCLUSIONS: All eight SFK members were expressed in different breast tissues. Src kinase was highest expressed in breast cancer and had a negative impact on disease-specific survival. Membrane expression of Lck was associated with improved clinical outcome. High expression of Src kinase correlated with high proliferation.&lt;/p&gt

Ancient DNA of the Extinct Lava Shearwater (Puffinus olsoni) from the Canary Islands Reveals Incipient Differentiation within the P. puffinus Complex

The loss of species during the Holocene was, dramatically more important on islands than on continents. Seabirds from islands are very vulnerable to human-induced alterations such as habitat destruction, hunting and exotic predators. For example, in the genus Puffinus (family Procellariidae) the extinction of at least five species has been recorded during the Holocene, two of them coming from the Canary Islands

Combining vitamin C and carotenoid biomarkers better predicts fruit and vegetable intake than individual biomarkers in dietary intervention studies.

The aim of this study was to determine whether combining potential biomarkers of fruit and vegetables is better at predicting FV intake within FV intervention studies than single biomarkers

The effects of local and global link creation mechanisms on contagion processes unfolding on time-varying networks

Social closeness and popularity are key ingredients that shape the emergence and evolution of social connections over time. Social closeness captures local reinforcement mechanisms which are behind the formation of strong ties and communities. Popularity, on the other hand, describes global link formation dynamics which drive, among other things, hubs, weak ties and bridges between groups. In this chapter, we characterize how these mechanisms affect spreading processes taking place on time-varying networks. We study contagion phenomena unfolding on a family of artificial temporal networks. In particular, we revise four different variations of activity-driven networks that capture i) heterogeneity of activation patterns ii) popularity iii) the emergence of strong and weak ties iv) community structure. By means of analytical and numerical analyses we uncover a rich and process dependent phenomenology where the interplay between spreading phenomena and link formation mechanisms might either speed up or slow down the spreadin

Global assessment of marine plastic exposure risk for oceanic birds

Plastic pollution is distributed patchily around the world’s oceans. Likewise, marine organisms that are vulnerable to plastic ingestion or entanglement have uneven distributions. Understanding where wildlife encounters plastic is crucial for targeting research and mitigation. Oceanic seabirds, particularly petrels, frequently ingest plastic, are highly threatened, and cover vast distances during foraging and migration. However, the spatial overlap between petrels and plastics is poorly understood. Here we combine marine plastic density estimates with individual movement data for 7137 birds of 77 petrel species to estimate relative exposure risk. We identify high exposure risk areas in the Mediterranean and Black seas, and the northeast Pacific, northwest Pacific, South Atlantic and southwest Indian oceans. Plastic exposure risk varies greatly among species and populations, and between breeding and non-breeding seasons. Exposure risk is disproportionately high for Threatened species. Outside the Mediterranean and Black seas, exposure risk is highest in the high seas and Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) of the USA, Japan, and the UK. Birds generally had higher plastic exposure risk outside the EEZ of the country where they breed. We identify conservation and research priorities, and highlight that international collaboration is key to addressing the impacts of marine plastic on wide-ranging species

donor selection for adults and pediatrics

It is known that multiple factors impact on transplantation outcome; the heaviest ones are disease-related (disease refractoriness, phase, clonal abnormalities, etc. in malignancies and disease type and associated rejection risk in non-malignant diseases) and patient-related (age, comorbidities, infectious diseases/colonization, etc.). Moreover, donor-related issues and stem cell source may influence the extent of disease control and transplant-related mortality