UK surface NO2 levels dropped by 42 % during the COVID-19 lockdown : Impact on surface O3

We report changes in surface nitrogen dioxide (NO2) across the UK during the COVID-19 pandemic when large and rapid emission reductions accompanied a nationwide lockdown (23 March-31 May 2020, inclusively), and compare them with values from an equivalent period over the previous 5 years. Data are from the Automatic Urban and Rural Network (AURN), which forms the basis of checking nationwide compliance with ambient air quality directives. We calculate that NO2 reduced by 42 %±9.8 % on average across all 126 urban AURN sites, with a slightly larger (48 %±9.5 %) reduction at sites close to the roadside (urban traffic). We also find that ozone (O3) increased by 11 % on average across the urban background network during the lockdown period. Total oxidant levels (OxCombining double low lineNO2+O3) increased only slightly on average (3.2 %±0.2 %), suggesting the majority of this change can be attributed to photochemical repartitioning due to the reduction in NOx. Generally, we find larger, positive Ox changes in southern UK cities, which we attribute to increased UV radiation and temperature in 2020 compared to previous years. The net effect of the NO2 and O3 changes is a sharp decrease in exceedances of the NO2 air quality objective limit for the UK, with only one exceedance in London in 2020 up until the end of May. Concurrent increases in O3 exceedances in London emphasize the potential for O3 to become an air pollutant of concern as NOx emissions are reduced in the next 10-20 years.

Gasoline and diesel passenger car emissions deterioration using on-road emission measurements and measured mileage

Modern gasoline and diesel vehicles are equipped with highly effective emission control systems that result in low emissions of pollutants such as nitrogen oxides (NOx) when new. However, with increasing age or mileage, the emissions performance of vehicles can deteriorate over time, leading to increased emissions. In this work we use comprehensive vehicle emission remote sensing measurements collected over a wide range of conditions, together with individual vehicle measured mileage to quantify vehicle emissions deterioration. A quantile regression modelling approach is used to provide a more complete understanding of the distribution of deterioration effects that is not captured by considering mean changes over time. The approach accounts for factors such as driving conditions and ambient temperature, as well as determining whether deterioration affects whole populations of vehicles or a smaller subset of them. Accounting for these factors, we find that for most pollutants the rate of deterioration of emissions from pre-Euro 5 gasoline passenger cars is highly skewed. Between 5% and 10% of pre-Euro 5 gasoline passenger cars have emissions similar to a Euro 5 diesel car, suggesting that policies should be developed to accelerate their removal from the fleet. Furthermore, we find evidence that there are differences between vehicle manufacturers in the way emissions of NOx deteriorate

The air quality impacts of pre-operational hydraulic fracturing activities

Hydraulic fracturing (fracking) is a short phase in unconventional oil and natural gas (O&G) development. Before fracking there is a lengthy period of preparation, which can represent a significant proportion of the well lifecycle. Extensive infrastructure is delivered onto site, leading to increased volumes of heavy traffic, energy generation and construction work on site. Termed the “pre-operational” period, this is rarely investigated as air quality evaluations typically focus on the extraction phase. In this work we quantify the change in air pollution during pre-operational activities at a shale gas exploration site near Kirby Misperton, North Yorkshire, England. Baseline air quality measurements were made two years prior to any shale gas activity and were used as a training dataset for random forest (RF) machine learning models. The models allowed for a comparison between observed air quality during the pre-operational phase and a counterfactual business as usual (BAU) prediction. During the pre-operational phase a significant deviation from the BAU scenario was observed. This was characterised by significant enhancements in NOx and a concurrent reduction in O3, caused by extensive additional vehicle movements and the presence of combustion sources such as generators on the well pad. During the pre-operational period NOx increased by 274 % and O3 decreased by 29 % when compared to BAU model values. There was also an increase in primary emissions of NO2 during the pre-operational phase which may have implications for the attainment of ambient air quality standards in the local surroundings. Unconventional O&G development remains under discussion as a potential option for improving the security of supply of domestic energy, tensioned however against significant environmental impacts. Here we demonstrate that the preparative work needed to begin fracking elevates air pollution in its own right, a further potential disbenefit that should be considered

The impact on passenger car emissions associated with the promotion and demise of diesel fuel

The promotion and growth in the use of diesel fuel in passenger cars in the UK and Europe over the past two decades led to considerable adverse air quality impacts in urban areas and more widely. In this work, we construct a multi-decade analysis of passenger car emissions in the UK based on real driving emissions data. An important part of the study is the use of extensive vehicle emission remote sensing data covering multiple measurement locations, time periods, environmental conditions and consisting of over 600,000 measurements. These data are used to consider two scenarios: first, that diesel fuel use was not promoted in the early 2000s for climate mitigation reasons, and second, that there was not a dramatic decline in diesel fuel use following the Dieselgate scandal. The strong growth of diesel fuel use coincided with a time when diesel NOx emissions were high and, conversely, the strong decrease of diesel fuel use coincided with a time when diesel vehicle after-treatment systems for NOx control were effective. We estimate that the growth in diesel car use in the UK results in excess NOx emissions of 721 kt over a three decade period; equivalent to over 7 times total annual passenger car NOx emissions and greater than total UK NOx emissions of 681.8 kt in 2021 and with an associated damage cost of £5.875 billion. However, the sharp move away from diesel fuel post-Dieselgate only reduced NOx emissions by 41 kt owing to the effectiveness of modern diesel aftertreatment systems

Emission ratio determination from road vehicles using a range of remote emission sensing techniques

The development of remote emission sensing techniques such as plume chasing and point sampling has progressed significantly and is providing new insight into vehicle emissions behaviour. However, the analysis of remote emission sensing data can be highly challenging and there is currently no standardised method available. In this study we present a single data processing approach to quantify vehicle exhaust emissions measured using a range of remote emission sensing techniques. The method uses rolling regression calculated over short time intervals to derive the characteristics of diluting plumes. We apply the method to high time-resolution plume chasing and point sampling data to quantify gaseous exhaust emission ratios from individual vehicles. Data from a series of vehicle emission characterisation experiments conducted under controlled conditions is used to demonstrate the potential of this approach. First, the method is validated through comparison with on-board emission measurements. Second, the ability of this approach to detect changes in NOx / CO2 ratios associated with aftertreatment system tampering and different engine operating conditions is shown. Third, the flexibility of the approach is demonstrated by varying the pollutants used as regression variables and quantifying the NO2 / NOx ratios for different vehicle types. A higher proportion of total NOx is emitted as NO2 when the selective catalytic reduction system of the measured heavy duty truck is tampered. In addition, the applicability of this approach to urban environments is illustrated using mobile measurements conducted in Milan, Italy in 2021. Emissions from local combustion sources are distinguished from a complex urban background and the spatiotemporal variability in emissions is shown. The mean NOx / CO2 ratio of 1.61 ppb/ppm is considered representative of the local vehicle fleet. It is envisaged that this approach can be used to quantify emissions from a range of mobile and stationary fuel combustion sources, including non-road vehicles, ships, trains, boilers and incinerators

Facility level measurement of offshore oil and gas installations from a medium-sized airborne platform : method development for quantification and source identification of methane emissions

Emissions of methane (CH4) from offshore oil and gas installations are poorly ground-truthed, and quantification relies heavily on the use of emission factors and activity data. As part of the United Nations Climate & Clean Air Coalition (UN CCAC) objective to study and reduce short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), a Twin Otter aircraft was used to survey CH4 emissions from UK and Dutch offshore oil and gas installations. The aims of the surveys were to (i) identify installations that are significant CH4 emitters, (ii) separate installation emissions from other emissions using carbon-isotopic fingerprinting and other chemical proxies, (iii) estimate CH4 emission rates, and (iv) improve flux estimation (and sampling) methodologies for rapid quantification of major gas leaks. In this paper, we detail the instrument and aircraft set-up for two campaigns flown in the springs of 2018 and 2019 over the southern North Sea and describe the developments made in both the planning and sampling methodology to maximise the quality and value of the data collected. We present example data collected from both campaigns to demonstrate the challenges encountered during offshore surveys, focussing on the complex meteorology of the marine boundary layer and sampling discrete plumes from an airborne platform. The uncertainties of CH4 flux calculations from measurements under varying boundary layer conditions are considered, as well as recommendations for attribution of sources through either spot sampling for volatile organic compounds (VOCs) /δ 13CCH4 or using in situ instrumental data to determine C2H6-CH4 ratios. A series of recommendations for both planning and measurement techniques for future offshore work within marine boundary layers is provided

δ13C methane source signatures from tropical wetland and rice field emissions

The atmospheric methane (CH4) burden is rising sharply, but the causes are still not well understood. One factor of uncertainty is the importance of tropical CH4 emissions into the global mix. Isotopic signatures of major sources remain poorly constrained, despite their usefulness in constraining the global methane budget. Here, a collection of new δ13CCH4 signatures is presented for a range of tropical wetlands and rice fields determined from air samples collected during campaigns from 2016 to 2020. Long-term monitoring of δ13CCH4 in ambient air has been conducted at the Chacaltaya observatory, Bolivia and Southern Botswana. Both long-term records are dominated by biogenic CH4 sources, with isotopic signatures expected from wetland sources. From the longer-term Bolivian record, a seasonal isotopic shift is observed corresponding to wetland extent suggesting that there is input of relatively isotopically light CH4 to the atmosphere during periods of reduced wetland extent. This new data expands the geographical extent and range of measurements of tropical wetland and rice δ13CCH4 sources and hints at significant seasonal variation in tropical wetland δ13CCH4 signatures which may be important to capture in future global and regional models. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Rising methane: is warming feeding warming? (part 2)’

Quantification and assessment of methane emissions from offshore oil and gas facilities on the Norwegian continental shelf

The oil and gas (O&G) sector is a significant source of methane (CH4) emissions. Quantifying these emissions remains challenging, with many studies highlighting discrepancies between measurements and inventory-based estimates. In this study, we present CH4 emission fluxes from 21 offshore O&G facilities collected in 10 O&G fields over two regions of the Norwegian continental shelf in 2019. Emissions of CH4 derived from measurements during 13 aircraft surveys were found to range from 2.6 to 1200 t yr−1 (with a mean of 211 t yr−1 across all 21 facilities). Comparing this with aggregated operator-reported facility emissions for 2019, we found excellent agreement (within 1σ uncertainty), with mean aircraft-measured fluxes only 16 % lower than those reported by operators. We also compared aircraft-derived fluxes with facility fluxes extracted from a global gridded fossil fuel CH4 emission inventory compiled for 2016. We found that the measured emissions were 42 % larger than the inventory for the area covered by this study, for the 21 facilities surveyed (in aggregate). We interpret this large discrepancy not to reflect a systematic error in the operator-reported emissions, which agree with measurements, but rather the representativity of the global inventory due to the methodology used to construct it and the fact that the inventory was compiled for 2016 (and thus not representative of emissions in 2019). This highlights the need for timely and up-to-date inventories for use in research and policy. The variable nature of CH4 emissions from individual facilities requires knowledge of facility operational status during measurements for data to be useful in prioritising targeted emission mitigation solutions. Future surveys of individual facilities would benefit from knowledge of facility operational status over time. Field-specific aggregated emissions (and uncertainty statistics), as presented here for the Norwegian Sea, can be meaningfully estimated from intensive aircraft surveys. However, field-specific estimates cannot be reliably extrapolated to other production fields without their own tailored surveys, which would need to capture a range of facility designs, oil and gas production volumes, and facility ages. For year-on-year comparison to annually updated inventories and regulatory emission reporting, analogous annual surveys would be needed for meaningful top-down validation. In summary, this study demonstrates the importance and accuracy of detailed, facility-level emission accounting and reporting by operators and the use of airborne measurement approaches to validate bottom-up accounting

Effects of 'pre-fracking' operations on ambient air quality at a shale gas exploration site in rural North Yorkshire, England

Rural observations of air quality and meteorological parameters (NOx, O3, NMHCs, SO2, PM) were made over a 2.5-year period (2016-2018) before, during and after preparations for hydraulic fracturing (fracking) at a shale gas exploration site near Kirby Misperton, North Yorkshire, England. As one of the first sites to apply for permits to carry out hydraulic fracturing, it has been subject to extensive regulatory and public scrutiny, as well as the focus for a major programme of long-term environmental monitoring. A baseline period of air quality monitoring (starting 2016) established the annual climatology of atmospheric composition against which a 20-week period of intensive activity on the site in preparation for hydraulic fracturing could be compared. During this 'pre-operational phase' of work in late 2017, the most significant effect was an increase in ambient NO (3-fold) and NOx (2-fold), arising from a combination of increased vehicle activity and operation of equipment on site. Although ambient NOx increased, air quality limit values for NO2 were not exceeded, even close to the well-site. Local ozone concentrations during the pre-operational period were slightly lower than the baseline phase due to titration with primary emitted NO. The activity on site did not lead to significant changes in airborne particulate matter or non-methane hydrocarbons. Hydraulic fracturing of the well did not subsequently take place and the on-site equipment was decommissioned and removed. Air quality parameters then returned to the original (baseline) climatological conditions. This work highlights the need to characterise the full annual climatology of air quality parameters against which short-term local activity changes can be compared. Based on this study, changes to ambient NOx appear to be the most significant air quality ahead of hydraulic fracturing. However, in rural locations, concentrations at individual sites are expected to be below ambient air quality limit thresholds

Isotopic signatures of methane emissions from tropical fires, agriculture and wetlands: the MOYA and ZWAMPS flights.

We report methane isotopologue data from aircraft and ground measurements in Africa and South America. Aircraft campaigns sampled strong methane fluxes over tropical papyrus wetlands in the Nile, Congo and Zambezi basins, herbaceous wetlands in Bolivian southern Amazonia, and over fires in African woodland, cropland and savannah grassland. Measured methane δ13CCH4 isotopic signatures were in the range -55 to -49‰ for emissions from equatorial Nile wetlands and agricultural areas, but widely -60 ± 1‰ from Upper Congo and Zambezi wetlands. Very similar δ13CCH4 signatures were measured over the Amazonian wetlands of NE Bolivia (around -59‰) and the overall δ13CCH4 signature from outer tropical wetlands in the southern Upper Congo and Upper Amazon drainage plotted together was -59 ± 2‰. These results were more negative than expected. For African cattle, δ13CCH4 values were around -60 to -50‰. Isotopic ratios in methane emitted by tropical fires depended on the C3 : C4 ratio of the biomass fuel. In smoke from tropical C3 dry forest fires in Senegal, δ13CCH4 values were around -28‰. By contrast, African C4 tropical grass fire δ13CCH4 values were -16 to -12‰. Methane from urban landfills in Zambia and Zimbabwe, which have frequent waste fires, had δ13CCH4 around -37 to -36‰. These new isotopic values help improve isotopic constraints on global methane budget models because atmospheric δ13CCH4 values predicted by global atmospheric models are highly sensitive to the δ13CCH4 isotopic signatures applied to tropical wetland emissions. Field and aircraft campaigns also observed widespread regional smoke pollution over Africa, in both the wet and dry seasons, and large urban pollution plumes. The work highlights the need to understand tropical greenhouse gas emissions in order to meet the goals of the UNFCCC Paris Agreement, and to help reduce air pollution over wide regions of Africa. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Rising methane: is warming feeding warming? (part 2)'